2012 MLB Trade Deadline Updates: Why Bettors Shouldn’t Overreact to Zack Greinke Joining the Los Angeles Angels

2012 MLB Trade Deadline Updates – Why Bettors Shouldn’t Overreact to Zack Greinke Joining the LA Angels: With lefty Cole Hamels signing a six-year extension to stay with the Philadelphia Phillies, the prized arm on the trading block became Milwaukee Brewers’ righty Zack Greinke. By offering three prospects, including their highest-ranked position player, the Los Angeles Angels were able to add the former American League Cy Young winner to their rotation. Since acquiring Greinke, experts have anointed the Angels the team to beat in the AL, touting Los Angeles as the most-complete team in the majors. While that may be true, bettors will still want to think twice before making the Angels their pick to win the AL pennant or the World Series.

Yes, Greinke is an excellent pitcher, and he should thrive with Los Angeles. After all, he has a career ERA below 3.00 in all four ballparks in the American League West, and he has shown in the past that he can handle the loaded lineups in the AL. Heck, Greinke won the Cy Young while playing for the Kansas City Royals. With the Angels, he will team with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson to form a trio of starters that can go toe to toe with any group of starters in the majors, helping to compensate for what has been a weak bottom half of the rotation for the Angels. In short, Greinke does address this team’s biggest need.

The oddsmakers have reacted by giving Los Angeles 5/1 odds to win the AL pennant and 17/2 odds to win the World Series. Only the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers are getting better odds in both categories, and the Rangers are the team that the Angels, and anyone considering betting on them, need to be concerned about. Texas currently has a four-game lead on Los Angeles, and while the gap is by no means insurmountable, the Rangers have been atop the AL West all season for a reason. Even when Los Angeles first baseman Albert Pujols finally caught fire and rookie sensation Mike Trout joined the Angels’ lineup, the Rangers stayed on top. Adding Greinke should help Los Angeles win a few more games, but it isn’t going to make Texas and its loaded lineup lose any extra games.

Let’s do some math. With about 60 games remaining, Greinke is probably looking at a roughly 11 starts for his new team. If he pitches well, the Angels are probably looking at going 8-3 in his starts. Whoever Greinke ends up replacing in the rotation could have probably won at least two or three games in the same 11 starts, meaning Greinke is going to add around five to six wins in the best case scenario. At the end of the day, a starting pitcher is only on the mound every fifth day. Is adding one starting pitcher going to allow the Angels to run down a team that the oddsmakers still consider a better bet to reach and win the World Series? It is questionable at best, and the potential payoff isn’t exactly overwhelming.

I do realize that while adding Greinke may not be enough to help the Angels overtake the Rangers, it should ensure that they grab a wild card spot and make the postseason. However, the addition of a second wild card spot in both leagues had also created a one-game, play-in type format. In other words, the two wild card teams in each league will play a winner-take-all game to decide which team advances to the divisional round. The Angels will likely be the best team in any wild card matchup that may result, but anything can happen in a one-game playoff. For a team that is likely going to be one game away from elimination in its first playoff game and then probably going to face one of top two teams in baseball after that, 5/1 odds to win the pennant and 17/2 odds to win the World Series seem a little generous. There is no question that adding Greinke made Los Angeles a better team, but it didn’t necessarily make them a better bet.

Get extra FREE MLB Picks and Tips daily from expert handicappers and tipsters on NSAwins.com’s MLB Baseball Tips and Predictions page.