The Favorites – 2012 Sprint Cup Championship Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Even though he didn’t win the championship last season, Jimmie Johnson has still won five out of the last six series titles. He has set such a high standard that his 2011 season is being viewed as a total failure. However, he still finished second in the series in top-five and top-10 finishes and posted the third-best average finish. In other words, he was still one of the top drivers in the sport despite having the worst year of his career. Johnson is still in his prime, and his window of opportunity is far from closed.

Last year, Carl Edwards got as close as any driver ever has to winning a title, only to walk away empty handed because of a tiebreaker. That being said, he finished the season with the most top-five and top-10 finishes, along with the best average finish in the series. Edwards also posted the best average finish in Chase history, albeit in a losing effort. He has now been runner-up for the championship twice in the last four years, and with a new long-term deal to stay with Roush Fenway Racing under his belt, it seems like a matter of when and not if Edwards wins the title.

The Dark Horses – 2012 Sprint Cup Championship Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

He wasn’t the best driver from start to finish last year, but Tony Stewart went on one of the greatest hot streaks in the sport’s history when it mattered most. Thanks to a record-setting five wins during the 10-race playoff, Stewart won the Sprint Cup title for the third time in his career. Stewart may not be the consistent title threat he was 10 years ago, but he has won 11 races in three seasons as an owner/driver. More importantly, he showed he can still perform in the clutch as well as any driver in the series. Don’t sleep on the defending champ just because he turned 40 last year.

During the past two seasons, no driver has been more reliable than Kevin Harvick. His 10.1 average finish during the stretch is the best in the series, and he has finished third in the final standings in back-to-back years. His recent improvement at the intermediate ovals has transformed him from a perennial playoff contender to a perennial title contender, and Harvick showed no signs of slowing down last year. He was close in 2010 and 2011, and he could get over the hump sooner rather than later.

Sleeper Special – 2012 Sprint Cup Championship Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Matt Kenseth won the Sprint Cup title in 2003, but he has been up and down since winning his only series championship to date. However, he appears to have turned a corner the last two years, finishing in the top five in the final standings in 2010 and 2011. In fact, the two-year stretch has been the most productive of Kenseth’s career. After a three-win campaign that included 20 top-10 finishes last year, all the pieces are in place for Kenseth to contend in 2012.

Drivers to Avoid – 2012 Sprint Cup Championship Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

No driver led more laps or had a better driver rating last season than Kyle Busch. Despite the impressive stats, he was nowhere to found when it came time to decide the championship, and it is a disturbing trend that bettors need to be aware of. Busch has tons of talent behind the wheel, but he is an intense, emotional driver that seems to struggle under pressure. He has just one win during the Chase in his career, and he has never won a race in the Chase when he has been eligible for the title. It is a problem that doesn’t seem to be going away, and it could prevent Busch from ever winning a championship at the Cup level.

It was a rough offseason for Kurt Busch. The 2004 champion has been a regular Chaser during his time with Penske Racing, but several incidents off the track caused the organization to release him after the 2011 season. Busch landed with Phoenix Racing – a single car operation with limited funds. Bettors are used to Busch being a constant to threat to win races and compete for the series title, but that isn’t going to happen in 2012.

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2012 Sprint Cup Championship Odds and Preview: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers & Drivers to Avoid originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 4, 2012.

UFC 143 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Middleweight Bout

Ed “Short Fuse” Herman vs. Clifford Starks

After being on the shelf for over two years due to a knee injury Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (19-7) made an impressive 2011 return with two first round finishes. His first fight back he won in just 48 seconds in a TKO victory over Tim Credeur. Herman has decent standup but is most comfortable on the ground using strikes and threatening submissions.

Still new to MMA Clifford Starks (8-0) made his UFC debut in October of 2011 with a unanimous decision victory over Dustin Jacoby. He is a former Arizona State NCAA Division I wrestling team and uses that background heavily in the cage. Before his UFC debut he primarily fought in Rage in the Cage finishing four of his five fights.

Even though he was out for such a long period of time Herman (-300) made a statement in 2011 that he shouldn’t be forgotten. He is crafty on the ground and has a knack for finishing his opponents. Starks (+220) will also be facing a man that has far more cage experience then he does. Bettors can look for Herman to close the distance quickly, do work in the clinch and ultimately take the fight to the ground where he can lock in a submission.

Prediction – Ed “Short Fuse” Herman by way of submission

UFC 143 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Bantamweight Bout

Renan “Barao” Pegado vs. Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen

With his only loss coming in his MMA debut Renan “Barao” Pegado (27-1, 1NC) has fought 28 straight times without being handed a loss. What makes Barao so special is his varied attack and the ability to finish fights where ever they take place winning thirteen by submissions and six by (T)KO. His most recent bout was a rear-naked choke victory inside of the first round against Brad Pickett.

Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen (13-4) biggest enemy has been consistency never having strung together more than five victories. He has bounced back after losing a five round battle with current bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz by winning his next two. His greatest asset is his wrestling that he uses to control position and beat up on his opponents.

Speaking in terms of ways to win a fight Barao (-240) has a huge advantage. He is far more dynamic on the feet and has a slick jiu-jitsu game. The advantage that Jorgensen (+190) will possess is raw power. He has one punch knockout power and strong enough wrestling to bully his opponents. Even though Jorgensen has the advantage in power Barao is going to be too explosive and varied in his attack to do much with it. Barao continues his rise up the bantamweight ladder bringing him even closer to a shot at Dominick Cruz.

Prediction – Renan “Barao” Pegado by way of TKO

UFC 143 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Welterweight Bout

Josh “Kos” Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

An alumnus of the first season of The Ultimate Fighter Josh “Kos” Koscheck (16-5) has spent almost his entire career under the UFC banner. He came back in dramatic fashion after he got steam rolled by Georges St-Pierre to knockout Matt Hughes with one second remaining in the first round. When he first entered MMA Koscheck was a one trick pony with his wrestling. Since then he has evolved his standup and now possess one punch knockout power.

Mike Pierce (13-4) is 4-1 in his last five bouts and has never been finished in his MMA career. Pierce does his best damage within the clinch using dirty boxing and elbows. He has shown he is susceptible to top tier wrestlers dropping fights to Jon Fitch and Johny Hendricks. He’ll need to clean up his takedown defense because it’s guaranteed Koscheck will eventually want to take this fight to the mat.

Koscheck (-240) wants to keep the momentum rolling of his big victory over Matt Hughes. With the future of GSP uncertain this may be the best opportunity for him to work his way back up the ladder and possibly to UFC gold. Make no mistake though, Pierce is a tough and scrappy fighter that will give his opponents fits if you let him hang around. Koscheck comes out aggressive with a good game plan and takes another step towards a title shot.

Prediction – Josh Koscheck by way of unanimous decision

UFC 143 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Heavyweight Bout

Roy “Big Country” Nelson vs. Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum

Roy “Big Country” Nelson (16-6) ended his two fight skid with a knockout of Mirko Cro Cop back in October. Nelson is a heavyweight that could most likely make 205 without too much trouble because he carries most of his weight in his midsection versus muscle mass. He has shown one punch knockout power with his right hand and has a very strong wrestling game with an ability to hold positions.

Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum (14-5-1) is the man that ended Fedor Emelianenko’s 28-fight unbeaten streak. With that being the high point of his career he followed it up with an uninspired, lackluster unanimous decision loss to Alistair Overeem. While he showed improved standup against Overeem he had no answer of how to get the fight to the ground where he is most dangerous. Of his fourteen wins eight have come by way of submission.

Even though Nelson (+115) has excellent wrestling he is going to want to keep this fight standing. Instead of using his wrestling to get the fight down he’ll use it defend the takedown and do damage inside the clinch. Werdum (-145) needs to avoid the big right hand and frustrate Big Country in standup exchanges. As Nelson tires look for him to take advantage and get the fight to the ground where he will attempt multiple submissions.

Prediction - Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum by way of submission

UFC 143 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

Interim Welterweight Championship Bout

Nick Diaz vs “Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit

Former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Nick Diaz (26-7, 1NC) will now have the opportunity to add the UFC strap to his resume. Currently riding an eleven fight win streak Diaz has one of the most unique styles in MMA. Punches in bunches doesn’t even begin to describe the volume of strikes he throws. Only throwing punches at around 50% allows him to keep up his relentless pace mixing in body shots with blows to the head. He is just as dangerous on the mat being a black belt in jiu-jitsu under Cesar Gracie and has finished eight fights by submission.

“Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit (27-5) held the WEC welterweight title for over a year before making the transition to the UFC. His first appearance in the octagon was his only loss in his last 13 fights. In this case the nickname truly does reflect the fighter with Condit going the distance only once in his 27 wins. Of the 26 that he finished he’s split right down the middle with 13 (T)KO and 13 submissions. His last three fights have earned him two Knockouts of The Night and the other a Fight of the Night. To say Condit is aggressive and explosive is a monumental understatement.

This bout has the potential to be Fight of the Year. Both these fighters don’t know the meaning of back down or ‘let’s tie up on the cage and take a quick breather’. This fight will be fought at a brutal pace from the first bell until someone is unconscious or tapping. Both of them are ridiculously well rounded and not afraid to eat a punch to land their own. The problem Condit (+160) will present for Diaz is that he is a better version of everyone he has recently faced. He won’t fade like Penn and has a bigger bag of tricks than Daley. Even with all that Diaz (-200) will still be too much. The sheer number of strikes he lands and his uncanny ability to frustrate his opponents will eventually chip away at Condit. Diaz’s iron chin will make sure he makes it into the deeper rounds where he will use his jiu-jitsu to become the interim champ.

Prediction – Nick Diaz by way of submission

UFC-MMA Betting Odds from BOVADA Sportsbook

UFC 143 Diaz vs Condit Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – UFC 143 Betting Preview originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 4, 2012.

1. Thomas Robinson, Power Forward, Kansas Jayhawks

Early losses to Kentucky and Duke knocked Robinson and the Jayhawks out of the national spotlight, but both have roared back to life. Robinson is averaging almost 18 points a game while connecting on more than 54 percent of his shots. He has also dominated on the glass and currently ranks second in the country with 12.1 rebounds per game. The double-double machine has poweredKansasto wins over second-ranked OhioState, third-ranked Baylor, and 23-ranked Kansas State at home as well as a road win against Texas. The Jayhawks have won nine straight games and are sitting atop the Big 12 standings. Robinson is the main reason why. His motor never stops, and he has emerged as a premier post scorer and an elite rebounder.

2. Anthony Davis, Center, Kentucky Wildcats

Without question,Davisis the most dominant force on the defensive end of the court in the country. The scary thing is that he is only a true freshman. He is averaging an incredible 4.6 blocks per game and has already broken the Kentucky single-season record. He is also averaging 1.6 steals per game and more than 10 rebounds. Davis is a little raw on the offensive end, but he is averaging almost 14 points and is making 63.0 percent of his shots. More importantly, he is hitting more than 70 percent of his foul shots, allowing him to be on the court even in crunch time of close games. When Davis is on the court, life is easier for the rest of the team on the offensive and defensive ends. The Wildcats are cruising toward a No. 1 seed come March, and having Davis gives Kentucky a weapon that no other team has.

3. Doug McDermott, Small Forward, Creighton Blue Jays

McDermott is a wild card in the Wooden Award race because Creighton isn’t exactly regarded as a powerhouse basketball program. However, the Blue Jays are off to an 18-2 start and are ranked in the top 25, and the play of McDermott deserves a lot of the credit. He is a versatile scorer, and he currently ranks fifth in the country at 23.2 points per game. McDermott is also an incredibly efficient scorer. He is hitting more than 60 percent of his shots overall and more than 50 percent of his 3-point attempts. At almost nine rebounds per game, he is far from a one-trick pony. Playing for Creighton puts him at a disadvantage, but if he keeps pumping in points, voters will pay attention. Just ask former BYU star Jimmer Fredette.

4. Jared Sullinger, Center, Ohio State Buckeyes

Ironically missing time with an injury may have actually helped his chances of winning the Wooden Award. The Buckeyes lost to Kansas when Sullinger was out of the lineup and lost to Indiana when he was limited by the same injury. When he was fully healthy, Ohio State annihilated Duke and destroyed the Hooisers in a rematch. Plain and simple, the Buckeyes are a legitimate top-five team with Sullinger and are average at best without him. He is averaging more than 17 points and nine rebounds per game and is shooting almost 60 percent from the field. He may not be overly athletic or flashy, but Sullinger controls the glass and scores in the post as well as any player in the country.

5. Kevin Jones, Small Forward, West Virginia Mountaineers

How many players are averaging at least 20 points and at least 10 rebounds this season? The answer is only one, and it is Kevin Jones. At 15-5, the Mountaineers would have to at least finish near the top of the Big East standings to give him a realistic shot to win the Wooden Award, but it’s tough to argue with his production. He is fourth in the country in rebounding at almost 12 per game and is 12th in scoring at 20.6 per game. Jones is hitting more than 55 percent of his field goal attempts this year and is averaging more than a 3-pointer per game to go along with a block per game. The number in West Virginia’s win column will ultimately determine whether or not he can overtake some of the bigger names from the high-profile schools, but Jones’ stats alone should have him on the radar.

Get the latest College Basketball odds and lines updated daily in addition to 2012 National Championship Odds.

2012 John Wooden Award Odds and Favorites – Top 5 Midseason Wooden Award Favorites and Contenders originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 4, 2012.

Two solid offenses will go toe to toe in this one. Kansas scores more than 75 points per game and shoots more than 48 percent from the field. That being said, the Tigers have an elite offense. Missouri ranks seventh in the country in point per game, averaging 81.2 a contest. The Tigers are also incredibly efficient, ranking fifth in the country with a team field goal percentage of 49.8. Whichever side comes out on top, it will likely come in a high-scoring, fast-paced game.

Missouri has been piling up points thanks in large part to a loaded backcourt. The Tigers have four guards averaging double figures this season. Marcus Denmon (17.1) and Kim English (14.1) have been the two most consistent scoring options, but Michael Dixon and Flip Pressey can do damage as well. Denmon and English have both connected on more than 50 3-pointers this season, and English is shooting nearly 50 percent from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Denmon’s ability to crash the lane and get to the foul line gives his game an added dimension. Overall, the Tigers’ depth and talent and guard are the main reasons they have been able to push the tempo and score and such a high level.

The tough task of controlling the Missouri backcourt falls on Kansas point guard Tyshawn Taylor and fellow guard Travis Releford. Taylor will be particularly important because of his ability on the offensive end. He is scoring almost 17 points per game, and he has the size and speed to score against the Denmon and English. Taylor has to make the Missouri guards exert energy on the defensive end in order to slow them down a bit on the offensive end.

Of course, Kansas can create some mismatches for Missouri as well The Jayhawks have one of the best post players in the country in forward Thomas Robinson. The double-double machine is averaging 17.6 points and 12.0 rebounds per game this season. Against a relatively small Tigers’ team that doesn’t rebound well, Robinson could score at will in the paint and control the tempo of the game in the process. When they faced then third-ranked Baylor, the Jayhawks used heavy doses of Robinson to physically dominate the high-scoring Bears. Missouri has a similar team setup to Baylor, which could mean another big game for Robinson.

Given Robinson’s size and strength in the post, Missouri forward Ricardo Ratliffe becomes the likely X-factor. He is the Tigers’ most-talented big man, averaging more than 14 points and almost seven rebounds per game. Ratliffe doesn’t necessarily have to dominate on the offensive end, but he has to keep Robinson in check on defense and has to control the boards for Missouri. If he can at least limit the second-chance opportunities for the Jayhawks, Missouri’s guards should be able to handle the rest.

With Kansas having the edge in the frontcourt and Missouri having the edge in the backcourt, something has to give. The Jayhawks have to establish Robinson early in the game to control the tempo because falling behind could be a death sentence. Kansas isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, and if the game gets up into the 80s, the Tigers’ firepower on the perimeter could be too much for the Jayhawks to match. That being said, Robinson and company have had no issues using their size advantage all year, and they should be able to give the Tigers all they can handle in this one.

Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks (+3) Cover the Spread

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2012 NCAA Basketball Picks: Kansas @ Missouri Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/4/2012 originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 4, 2012.

While both teams aren’t afraid to be physical, there will definitely be different styles of play at work Saturday. The Buckeyes have a potent, efficient offense, ranking 27th in points scored (77.3) and 11th in field goal percentage (49.2). They play through the post but aren’t afraid to push the tempo in transition. Wisconsin on the other hand is far from impressive on the stat sheet, scoring just 64.6 points per game and shooting just 43.1 percent from the field. However, the Badgers run a deliberate, ball-control offense, bleeding the shot clock and limiting possessions for opponents. Given the success of both teams, it is tough to say that one style is better than the other.

For Ohio State, the play of center Jared Sullinger is critical. He is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, averaging 17.1 points and 9.1 rebounds. More importantly, Sullinger shoots nearly 59 percent from the field, and he consistently gets to the foul line or scores on the block. His presence forces defenses to collapse, opening things up for the Ohio State perimeter players. Wisconsin will likely try to slow down Sullinger by rotating fresh bodies at him throughout the game. In fact, the Badgers have three players in Jared Berggren, Ryan Evans and Mike Bruesewitz that can take turns banging on Sullinger. Not to mention the fact that the Badgers are one of the tougher teams against post players on the defensive end. Add it up, and Sullinger could be in for a tough afternoon.

Wisconsin’s main player on offense is point guard Jordan Taylor. He is the Badgers’ leading scorer and the only player that can create his own shot on a regular basis. For a team that struggles to score efficiently, an off game for Taylor can be a death sentence. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, the Buckeyes have one of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Aaron Craft. Taylor has a strength advantage, but Craft has yet to meet an opposing guard that he couldn’t give fits. Taylor may be forced to take on more of a distributor’s role in order to jump start the Badgers offense.

The X-factor in the matchup could be Ohio State guard William Buford. He is averaging 15.0 points per game and has been the most reliable perimeter scorer for the Buckeyes this season. Buford has a strong mid-range game, and with Wisconsin’s defense likely focusing on Sullinger, he should have plenty of open looks. If he knocks down his shots early, Buford will be that added dimension that the Badgers can’t account for.

With both Ohio State and Wisconsin equipped with the personnel to stop the other side’s best player, a low-scoring game could be on tap. Any basketball fan familiar with the Big Ten knows that the conference can produce some ugly offense at times, and Saturday’s game could be another example. While the Buckeyes have the better role players, a majority of them are younger, and playing on the road will neutralize the advantage to a degree. The Badgers know how to win ugly, especially at home, and they should be able to keep Saturday’s game close by forcing the high-scoring Buckeyes to play at their pace.

Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers (+4) Cover the Spread

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Basketball season for daily Free College Basketball Picks and Vegas College Basketball Lines plus daily updated Men’s 2012 National Championship Futures Odds.

2012 NCAA Basketball Picks: Ohio State @ Wisconsin Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/4/2012 originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 4, 2012.

Last Week

2-0 (100%)

Season

65-60-4 (52%)

SUNDAY 2/5

New York Plus 2.5-The Vegas bookmakers made the Pats a 3 pt. favorite and it has gone down to 2.5 pts.  Many experts and talking heads feel the Giants should be favored and the majority are picking them to win.  I think the G-Men are being overvalued a little and don’t for a minute think they will dominate in this one.  I would be picking New England if Gronkowski was completely healthy, but while he will play, he won’t have his usual explosiveness, and I trust NY’s pass rush more than NE’s.  So….I’ll go with New York plus 2.5…

Under 54 points – I don’t see a shootout and think it will be a 23-20 type of game…these teams know each other and should be able to slow each other down.

Free NFL Picks from Stephen G.- Superbowl Edition originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 4, 2012.

Thursday’s game is actually the second meeting between the two franchises within a week. The Clippers went into Denver last Sunday and knocked off the Nuggets 109-105. Los Angeles guard Chauncey Billups played a big role in deciding the outcome, scoring 32 points on the strength of six 3-pointers. His backcourt mate Chris Paul added 25 of his own, as the Nuggets had no answer for the Clippers’ dynamic duo.

Los Angeles should enjoy a similar advantage in the frontcourt Thursday. Paul and Billups are both points guards, and having the two on the court at the same time gives the Clippers two proven floor generals making decisions. Both players recognize mismatches and are adept at exploiting them, and against Denver, Paul and Billups know they have an edge on the offensive end. Denver guards Andre Miller and Ty Lawson are strong offensive players in their own right, but neither player is a lockdown defender. As a result, Paul and Billups were able to score early and often in Sunday’s victory, and there is no reason they shouldn’t do the same Thursday.

For Denver, establishing center power forward Nene Hilario has been the challenge all season. Despite shooting almost 54 percent from the field and having a unique combination of strength and skill around in the rim, Hilario is averaging less than 15 points per game this season. He needs assert himself in the post Thursday and needs to get Clippers’ center DeAndre Jordan into foul trouble. Jordan blocked five shots in Los Angeles’ victory Sunday, forcing the Nuggets to become a perimeter-oriented team. Denver is at its best when it is running up and down the court, slashing to the basket and getting to the foul line.

Aside from Hilario needing to be more aggressive, the bigger issue facing Denver is the overall athleticism of the Clippers. The Nuggets are averaging an NBA-best 105.4 points per game this season. With Lawson pushing the tempo from the point guard position and lengthy wing players like Danilo Gallinari and Al Harrington running the floor, Denver has been able to tire out opponents and create easy scoring chances. However, Los Angeles is able to match the Nuggets’ athleticism with players like Jordan and highlight machine Blake Griffin. The Clippers’ ability to keep pace was on full display last Sunday, when they matched Denver point for point and emerged victorious in a high-scoring game.

The X-factor in the game could be Clippers’ guard Mo Williams. Los Angeles doesn’t have a lot of depth, but Williams is providing almost 15 points per game off the bench, giving Los Angeles the option to rest Paul and Billups sporadically throughout the game. Against a team like Denver that wants to push the tempo, Williams allows the Clippers to keep their starting backcourt well rested.

In the end, Los Angeles is a matchup nightmare for a Denver team that makes a living off of creating mismatches. The Nuggets don’t have the perimeter defenders to slow down Paul and Billups, and both players are equally dangerous scoring and distributing. The Clippers have more than enough firepower to compete with the Denver offense, and with Paul and Billups getting wherever they want on the floor, there should be plenty of easy buckets to go around for Los Angeles.

Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers (-1) Cover the Spread

Current Odds: Favorite - LA Clippers -1 Total - OVER/UNDER 206

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2012 NBA Picks: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers Odds and Predictions – Free NBA Picks 2/2/2012 originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 2, 2012.

2012 Super Bowl XLVI MVP Award Odds and Predictions – The Favorites

He already has two Super Bowl MVP Awards to his name, and if the Patriots win Sunday, there is a good chance quarterback Tom Brady earns the honor for the third time in his career. Considering he is the centerpiece of a one-dimensional, pass-heavy offense that has had to compensate for a below average defense all season, a strong showing from New England almost certainly means big numbers from Brady. Brady also has the added advantage of playing the most-coveted position in the game. There is a reason that a quarterback has been named MVP in 24 of the 45 previous Super Bowls.

Did I mention that 24 of the 45 previous Super Bowls have seen a QB take home MVP honors? Just as Brady is in the driver’s seat for New England, New York quarterback Eli Manning is the likely candidate to win the award if the Giants win. He is also helped by the fact the Giants are a pass-heavy team as well and have three talented receivers available for him to throw to. More importantly, Manning has been outstanding on third downs and in the fourth quarter this season, setting an NFL record with 15 fourth-quarter touchdowns. If he has that type of clutch performance in a win Sunday, the award is as good as his.

2012 Super Bowl XLVI MVP Award Odds and Predictions – The Dark Horses

Saying that tight end Rob Gronkowski had a pretty good year would the understatement of the century. The second-year player caught 90 passes this season and set an NFL record for tight ends with 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns. His 17 scores were the most in football this season, and with a three-score game already on his resume this postseason, he has the talent to put up MVP-caliber numbers Sunday. Gronkowski’s combination of size and speed make him an impossible matchup for opposing defenses, and his ability to run over defenders in the open field allows him to make highlight plays. Assuming his ankle holds up, he could snag the award.

The Giants’ answer to “Gronk” is receiver Victor Cruz. He came out of nowhere this season to finish third in the NFL with more than 1,500 receiving yards. More importantly, Cruz has shown a knack for making ridiculous catches and turning short passes into long scores. His big play ability makes him a constant threat to the New England secondary and a threat to win MVP honors.

2012 Super Bowl XLVI MVP Award Odds and Predictions – The Sleepers

He is a relative unknown to casual football fans, but New England’s Julian Edelman will have plenty of opportunities to make an impact Sunday. Edelman does a little bit of everything for the Patriots, filling in at receiver, cornerback and returning kicks. Playing all three phases of the game will give him plenty of chances to make plays, and if he has a big kick return and a clutch interception, Edelman’s all-around impact could earn him MVP honors.

Any player on New York’s defensive line could dominate the game, but Jason Pierre-Paul probably has the best chance. He led the team with 16.5 sacks this season, and he had 86 tackles. Pierre-Paul has also tipped his share of passes and even blocked a kick during the course of the year. His ability to make an impact on defense in more ways than simply rushing the passer makes him the likely choice for the MVP if the Giants’ defense controls the game.

2012 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers to Win Super Bowl XLVI MVP originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 1, 2012.

Instead of looking to Super Bowl XLII for insight into Sunday’s game, a regular season meeting in Foxboro earlier this year is probably a better indication of what to expect. The Giants won 24-20, scoring with 15 seconds remaining to snap a 20-game home winning streak for New England. Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady threw for nearly 350 yards in the game, but he also threw a pair of interceptions as the Giants defense forced four turnovers. Both teams scored less than their season average, but New England’s offense vastly underperformed. Neither team could move the ball on the ground, forcing Brady and New York QB Eli Manning to throw the ball a combined 88 times.

A pass-happy theme could be on tap for the rematch as well. After all, the Patriots had the second-best passing attack in the NFL this season, while the Giants had the fifth-best passing offense. It’s all worth noting that both defenses ranked among the four worst in the league in terms of allowing passing yardage. In other words, the strength of both offenses happens to be the weakness of both defenses. It only makes sense that Brady and Manning will take to the air early and often once again.

There is plenty of firepower at the disposal of both signal callers, but each offense takes a different approach to the passing game. The Giants utilize one of the best trip receivers in the NFL. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz both topped 1,000 yards this season, and Mario Manningham has finding the end zone with regularity since returning from injury. All three receivers have the speed to score from anywhere on the field, which creates nightmares for any secondary. Meanwhile, the Patriots use a two tight end scheme, leaning heavily on Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, along with slot receiver Wes Welker. Welker topped 1,500 yards this season, while Gronkowski set a NFL record for tight ends with 17 touchdown catches. The unique combination of size and speed from the New England tight ends creates mismatches on every snap.

An unexpected X-factor in the game could be the health of Gronkowski. He injured his ankle in the final minutes of the AFC Championship Game, and if he isn’t at full strength, the Patriots’ offense could struggle. Gronkowski’s size has made him an ideal safety valve for Brady, even in tight coverage. His surprising speed has been almost unstoppable in the open field, and has been especially deadly inside the red zone. All signs point to Gronkowski being on the field, but if he can’t effectively run the same routes he normally does, everyone else’s role on offense changes. Even with two weeks to prepare, that is a tough adjustment for any team to make.

While the offenses may have the star power, the winner will likely be decided in the trenches. Both defenses have strong defensive lines, and there is nothing like pressure on the pocket to disrupt a quarterback. New England’s line is anchored by massive nose tackle Vince Wilfork, and the unit’s ability to switch between a 4-3 and a 3-4 base creates added confusion. The Giants on the other hand rely on arguably the best trio of pass rushers in the NFL. Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul are relentless, and they powered New York to the fourth-most sacks in the league this season.

Looking at the matchup, the Giants defensive line appears to have the edge. The line already helped keep Brady in check during the regular season meeting with New England, and the same group caused problems for Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and the highest-scoring offense in the NFL in the first round of the playoffs. The Giants are able to bring pressure without blitzing extra defenders. And they had an incredible 34.0 sacks when rushing four players or less. The line is also able to bring pressure up the middle and off the edge. Meanwhile, the Patriots bring pressure mainly up the middle, and Manning has been adept at rolling out of the pocket and finding receivers down the field. Add it up, and it could be a long, painful night for Brady.

After all, Brady and the Patriots’ offense have had their worst performances against opponents with strong pass rushes. New England managed just 20 points against DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas Cowboys’ defense, just 17 points against the top-rated Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense, and just 20 points against New York. The Patriots were 1-2 in those games. In the playoffs, they managed just 23 points against the Baltimore Ravens. The trend seems clear. Putting pressure on Brady is the key to slowing down the New England offense. The Giants can bring pressure as good as any team in the NFL.

One factor that can’t be completely overlooked is the mindset of Brady. With three Super Bowls already on his resume, he has nothing left to prove. However, he can cement his legacy even further with a win against the Giants. A loss would make him 0-2 against Manning on the sport’s biggest stage, and while he still has his championships to fall back on, it would definitely put a dent in his playoff aura. Brady has been playing with a chip on his shoulder all season, and this game against this opponent is a golden opportunity for redemption.

While momentum and confidence all play a role, football is all about matchups at the end of the day, and the Patriots just don’t match up well with New York. Manning and the Giants’ trio of receivers should have plenty of big play opportunities against a porous New England secondary. Meanwhile, the Giants’ front four on defense can apply the same type of pressure that seems to be the only way to slow down the Patriots’ high-powered offense. It won’t be the monumental upset it was in 2008, but the Giants should emerge victorious once again.

Super Bowl XLVI Predictions: New York Giants (+2½) Cover the Spread and UNDER 54.5

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2012 Super Bowl XLVI Picks and Predictions: New York Giants @ New England Patriots Odds and Lines – Free Super Bowl Picks 2/5/2012 originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on February 1, 2012.

Sunday’s matchup is a classic battle of offense versus defense. Miami is the second-best scoring team in the NBA, averaging nearly 105 points per game. Meanwhile, Chicago has the best scoring defense in the league, allowing just 87.0 points per game. Needless to say, the Heat wants a fast-paced game and plenty of transition opportunities, while the Bulls want to slow the tempo and play the game in the half court. Whichever side dictates the pace is probably going to come away victorious.

After watching Miami’s victory over the New York Knicks Friday night, Chicago probably wishes Sunday’s game would have come a few days earlier. Miami shooting guard Dwyane Wade made his first start since going down with an ankle injury two weeks ago, and he looked spectacular. Wade finished with 28 points on 11 for 19 shooting and added five steals and two blocks. At full strength, the Heat is going to remind the Bulls every bit of the team that dispatched them from the playoffs one year ago.

While Wade is back in the lineup for Miami, Chicago could be without its second-best scoring option in forward Luol Deng. His wrist injury isn’t as serious as once thought, but if he does play, Deng will be dealing with some pain. Either way, extra pressure is likely to fall on the shoulders of defending MVP Derrick Rose. The point guard is having another strong season, averaging 21.9 points and 7.9 assists. However, he was stifled in the playoffs last season by Heat forward LeBron James. The size and speed combination of James has prevented Rose from penetrating the lane and from getting a clean release on his perimeter shots. Chicago is extremely dependent on Rose on the offensive end, and if James shuts him down once again, Sunday’s game is likely to be a repeat of last year’s conference finals.

James is likely to cause plenty of problems for the Bulls on the defensive end as well. His commitment to playing more in the post this year has taken his game to a new level. James is second in the NBA in scoring at more than 29 points per game. More importantly, he is shooting almost 55 percent from the field. Playing on the block has also allowed James to help out on the boards and open things up for Miami’s perimeter shooters. James is averaging more than eight rebounds and more than seven assists, and the Heat ranks fourth in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. Thanks to James’ expanded game, the Heat has been able to score consistently and efficiently in the half court, which was the team’s biggest weakness last season.

The X-factor in the game could be Chicago forward Carlos Boozer. With Deng hurting, he needs to step up become a reliable scoring option. He is averaging 15.2 points per game, but he hasn’t been the consistent post option the Bulls hoped he would be since joining the team. Boozer has to be aggressive and look for his shot early and often Sunday to take the pressure off Rose. If he has one of his all-too-frequent lackluster efforts, Chicago’s chances off keeping up on the offensive end are slim.t

At the end of the day, not a lot has changed with these teams since their playoff meeting last season. Chicago added shooting guard Richard Hamilton, and the Heat bolstered its bench, but the core of each team remains the same. With that in mind, James’ ability to hold Rose in gives the Heat an advantage that isn’t going away. Miami has more firepower on offense, and even against a stout Chicago defense, the Heat can still create mismatches. Meanwhile, the Bulls will likely live and die with Rose, and against James and company, that strategy has been ineffective.

Prediction: Miami Heat (-4 ½) Covers the Spread

Current Odds: Favorite - Miami -4.5 Total - OVER/UNDER 189.5

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2012 NBA Picks: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat Odds and Predictions – Free NBA Picks 1/29/2012 originally appeared on NSAwins "Betting Daily" Sports Betting Blog on January 29, 2012.