2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Oregon @ USC Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Oregon @ USC Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012: When the schedule was first released, Saturday’s showdown between Oregon and USC was thought to have national title implications. Well, the fourth-ranked Ducks (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12) do need a win to keep their championship hopes alive, but the 17th-ranked Trojans (6-2, 4-2 Pac-12) are left to play the role of spoiler after a pair of surprise losses. At this point, USC probably needs to upset Oregon just to win the South Division in the Pac-12. Of course, the Trojans have been in this situation before, knocking off Oregon last year despite being on probation and ineligible for the postseason. They will have to do the same this weekend if they have any chance of rallying to win the conference crown and making a BCS bowl. While the game might not have quite the hype many expected, there is still a lot on the line for both teams. After losing to USC in Eugene last year, Oregon is a 7 ½-point favorite in the Coliseum this weekend.

There is no shortage of offensive firepower on either side. Matt Barkley leads a USC offense that ranks 25th in scoring this season at 35.0 points per game. The Trojans have one of the top passing attacks, and receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are arguably the most explosive duo in the country. Of course, Oregon owns currently the most productive offensive in the country, averaging an incredible 53.4 points per game. The Ducks have speed to spare, and running back Kenjon Barner and receiver De’Anthony Thomas lead a rushing attack that ranks third in the country at more than 330 yards per game. Meanwhile, dual-threat QB Marcus Mariota has exceled in his first year as a starter. In other words, there is plenty of NFL-talent to go around on offense in this one.

Defensively, the teams are practically mirror images. Oregon and USC rank 24th and 25th in points allowed, and both teams allow less than 20 points per game. Both units have been able to create turnovers and pressure opposing QBs, as well. The Trojans actually rank fourth in the country with 16 interceptions and eighth with 27.0 sacks. Meanwhile, the Ducks are tied for sixth in the country with 14 interceptions and are just outside the top 15 with 23.0 sacks. Not to mention the fact the Ducks have been one of the stingiest defenses in the red zone and have returned for interceptions for scores. The offensive stars may get most of the attention, but both of these defenses have been stout, as well.

The Ducks Win If:

Oregon has thoroughly stomped all of its opponents thus far by halftime, and the Ducks have yet to face any real pressure late into a game. That will likely change against the Trojans, and while the running game is the strength of Chip Kelly’s spread-option attack, freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota will have to provide some balance. If Mariota can avoid any big game jitters and the Ducks don’t turn the ball over, there is no reason Oregon can’t be the offensive juggernaut it has been all year. Unless the Ducks stop themselves, they are going to be able to outscore the Trojans and remain undefeated.

The Trojans Win If:

The Trojans have shown flashes of their talent on both sides of the ball this season, but inconsistency has killed them. Still, Barkley has the firepower to put up a ton of points, and one brilliant game is all it takes to pull off an upset. In fact, Oregon’s defense has given up its share of yardage this year, but the Ducks have stepped it up once opponents get into the red zone. Barkley and the USC offense should get their chances to score, and if they can execute around the goal line, the Trojans will be the ones putting pressure on the Oregon offense for a change. There isn’t much that can be done defensively to slow down the Ducks, but if USC can tackle in space and make Oregon have extended scoring drives rather than one-play, 50-plus yard scores, it will go a long way to keeping the score within reason. If the Trojans can hang with Oregon from the start, Barkley and company can make the plays in crunch time needed to win.

Bottom Line:

USC has already thrown away its national title chances this season, which could actually turn into a plus for the Trojans this weekend. Oregon has everything to lose in this game and it going into a hostile environment. Meanwhile, Barkley and company can afford to take some risks and try to hit some big plays down the field to get the crowd involved. As dominant as Oregon has been this year, they Ducks have yet to play meaningful snaps late in the fourth quarter of a game. USC’s passing attack is powerful enough to hang with Oregon’s high-scoring offense, and at the end of the day, USC has a Heisman candidate under center and the potential No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft while Oregon has a freshman. Playing at home with nothing to nose, Barkley and the Trojans make a run at the upset, and at the very least, USC covers the spread.

Prediction: USC Trojans (+7 ½) Cover the Spread 

Oregon @ USC Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oregon -8
Total: Over/Under 69.5
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC

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