2012 College Football Bowl Picks: Texas vs Oregon St Odds and Predictions – Free Alamo Bowl Picks

Alamo Bowl Odds and Picks: Texas vs Oregon St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/29/12: As the 23-ranked Texas Longhorns (8-4, 5-4 Big 12) and 13th-ranked Oregon State Beavers (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12) prepare to meet in Saturday’s Valero Alamo Bowl, the feeling is quite different depending on which program you ask. On the heels of a three-win campaign, the trip to the Alamo Bowl with a shot at a 10-win season has made the year a huge success for the Beavers. Meanwhile, another year without a BCS bowl appearance has Texas coach Mack Brown on the hot seat, and a loss would likely mean the Longhorns will finish outside the top 25 in the final polls. Just one win separates these two teams on paper, but they are miles apart in how they are being perceived. Of course, a bowl win is a good thing for either side, and Oregon State is a three-point favorite in this matchup.

On paper, the Texas offense is impressive. The Longhorns rank in the top 50 nationally in both passing and rushing yards, and they rank in the top 25 in scoring at 36.1 points per game. That being said, running backs Johnathan Gray and Joe Bergeron are both averaging less than five yards per carry since replacing starter Malcolm Brown early in the year. Meanwhile, starting quarterback David Ash was actually replaced late in the year for a start and during several games by Case McCoy. Ash will be under center to start the bowl game, but there is definitely a QB controversy in Austin. The Texas defense has also been a mess, and even with improvements late in the year, the Longhorns are still allowing almost 30 points per game.

Despite a running game that ranks outside the top 100 nationally, Oregon State’s offense still ranks in the top 40 in points per game thanks to an excellent passing attack. Using both Sean Mannion and Cody Vaz, the Beavers own the 15th-best passing attack in the country. Receivers Bradin Cooks and Markus Wheaton are the two main weapons for the pass-happy offense, and both players have already topped 1,100 yards on the year. Oregon State has also been rock solid on defense, allowing less than 20 points per game and holding four opponents to seven points or less.

The Longhorns Win If:

For whatever reason, Texas just hasn’t been able to play well on both sides of the ball at the same time. When the offense was scoring 40-plus points per game, the defense couldn’t tackle anyone. When the defense stiffened late in the year, the offense began to struggle a bit. There is plenty of talent on this team, and if the Longhorns can put it all together with a focused, balanced effort on both sides of the ball, they can beat the Beavers. Specifically, Texas wins if its defense is getting pressure on the Oregon State QBs and its offense makes the Beavers’ defense honor both the run and the pass.

The Beavers Win If:

Although neither side’s quarterback situation is ideal, the Oregon State passing attack has been reliable for the most part regardless of who has been under center. If the Beavers can get their passing attack going early and force the Longhorns to try to keep pace, the inconsistent QB play and defensive struggles could rear their ugly heads for Texas. The Longhorns would love to be able to pound the ball away on the ground and try to outmuscle Oregon State, but the Beavers can take that option away by putting points on the board early. If Oregon State makes sure this game comes down to which passing attack can make the most plays, they are going to have a big advantage.

The Bottom Line:

I firmly believe Texas has the more talented team in this matchup, but I also have no doubt that Oregon State is going to be the more focused, consistent team. After all, if the Longhorns couldn’t put the pieces together during the 12 regular season games, there is no reason to expect them to do so now that they are in a bowl game that their fans don’t even care about. Not to mention the fact that Oregon State has a strong passing attack, and Texas’ secondary hasn’t exactly fared well against other high-powered passing offenses. The Longhorns gave up 48 points to West Virginia, 63 points to Oklahoma and 50 points to Baylor. The Beavers should be headed for a big day offensively, as well, and with a defense that really only had one bad game all year, Oregon State has muscle on both sides of the ball to take down a Texas team still trying to figure out its identity.

Prediction: Oregon Beavers (-3) Cover the Spread

Texas vs Oregon St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/29/12
Line: Oregon St -3.5
Total: Over/Under 58
Television: 6:45 PM EST on ESPN2

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