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Author Archives | Brian Polking

2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, and fitting to a track that has hosted many legends of motorsports, the list of Cup Series winners at the track is littered with current and future Hall of Famers.

All told, 19 of the 24 Cup races at Indianapolis have been won by drivers who have also won a Cup Series crown, and only two drivers with wins at Indy have fewer than 18 career wins. Needless to say, you might not want to stray too far from the household names when placing your bets. Check out my top options for Sunday’s Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard.

2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (5/2)

Although he has the same odds as Kevin Harvick, I actually think Busch is the smartest bet on the board this weekend. He has been a dominant force at Indianapolis the last several years, finishing either first or second in four of the last six races. Busch won here in 2015 and 2016, and he led a race-high 87 laps last year before being taken out while leading on a late restart. Look for Busch to go to victory lane for the third time in the last four years at Indy this weekend.

Kevin Harvick (5/2)

Harvick has been in the mix for wins in just about every race this season, and he has already sealed the deal seven times. He is also a former winner at the Brickyard, and he has finished in the top 10 in all four of his starts at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick is pretty much a lock to have a shot at the win Sunday.

Brad Keselowski (10/1)

He is coming off a win at Darlington, and Keselowski always seems to be in contention at Indianapolis. Granted, he only has one top-five finish in eight starts at the track, but he has led laps in six of those races, leading at least 15 laps here in each of the past three seasons. With a little momentum in his corner and a history of running up front, I like Keselowski if you are looking for a little more room for profit than what the two co-favorites offer.

Joey Logano (16/1)

Logano has flipped a switch at Indianapolis since joining Team Penske, cracking the top 10 in all five of his starts at the track while compiling a 5.2 average finish. Logano has three top-five finishes during that stretch, and he has led laps in four of those five starts. His 16/1 odds seem pretty friendly for a driver who is always in the mix at Indy.

Bad Bets

Kyle Larson (6/1)

I love Kyle Larson as a driver, but I don’t love him at 6/1 odds this weekend. Yes, he has been good at Indianapolis, finishing in the top 10 in three of his four starts and notching a top-five finish in 2017. On the flip side, he has never led a lap at the track, and he still hasn’t been able to win a race in 2018. In fact, Larson has only won three stages all year. I’d rather just back Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick or take a shot on a dark horse.

Ryan Blaney (16/1)

Blaney has been one of the faster drivers week in and week out this year, but he has also been one of the most inconsistent. In three starts at Indianapolis, he has a 23.7 average finish, finishing outside the top 10 in all three races and crashing out twice. I think Blaney will have top-five potential this weekend, but there are other drivers getting similar odds who I have a lot more confidence in.

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2018 Lilly Diabetes 250 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lilly Diabetes 250 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers

2018 Lilly Diabetes 250 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Lilly Diabetes 250 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers: The NASCAR XFINITY Series heads to Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend for just the seventh time, but even though the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is also in town, the field for Saturday’s Lilly Diabetes 250 isn’t overly loaded with Cup stars.

Whether they will admit it or not, one of the reasons is probably because of the restrictor-plate package being used at the track, but while the package turned the Michigan race into a crap shoot, it didn’t have a huge impact at Pocono.

Between the long straightaways and flatter corners, Pocono and Indianapolis have a lot more in common than Indianapolis and Michigan, so I’m not expecting the package to impact the driver hierarchy all that much this weekend. With that in mind, here is a closer look at the my top betting options and favorites sleeper bets for Saturday’s Lilly Diabetes 250.

2018 Lilly Diabetes 250 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lilly Diabetes 250 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers

The Favorites

Christopher Bell (+300)

He has been the class of the XFINITY regulars this year, piling up four wins and 13 Top 5s and leading laps no matter how strong the fields have been. Bell will make his first start at Indianapolis this weekend, but in this field, there are only a handful of drivers that have a realistic shot at hanging with him Saturday.

Ryan Blaney (+350)

His combination of career accomplishments, elite equipment and Cup Series experience are second to none in the field this weekend, and the last time Blaney raced at Indianapolis in the XFINITY Series, he led 24 laps and came within a restart of winning the race. Blaney has a 3.0 average finish and a win in three XFINITY starts this year, and he is going to be tough to beat this weekend.

Value Bets

Cole Custer (+1000)

He has been the model of consistency in his sophomore season, piling up 20 Top 10s in the first 24 races. More importantly, he has kept improving as the year has progressed. Nine of his 10 Top 5 finishes have come in the last 14 races, and Custer has three straight Top 5s coming into Indianapolis, a track where he finished in the Top 5 in his debut last year. He is a nice alternative to the betting favorites.

Ryan Preece (+1000)

Preece will take his turn in the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 this weekend, and whenever he has gotten the opportunity to drive for JGR, he has delivered. In 10 starts for the organization, he has nine Top 10s, eight Top 5s and a pair of wins. No, he isn’t a full-time driver, but Preece has been an elite driver whenever he has been in the field the last two seasons.

Chase Elliott (+1800)

In terms of overall value, Elliott might be the biggest bargain on the board this weekend. He is subbing for an injured Spencer Gallagher, and while GMS Racing might not be a powerhouse on the level of Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske, the team has been battling for Top 10s all season long. More importantly, Elliott piloted this same No. 23 car to a second-place finish at Pocono earlier this year in a race that featured the restrictor-plate package that will be used this weekend at Indianapolis. Outside of the two favorites, I’d direct most of my money to Elliott.

Ty Dillon (+2000)

He’s a mediocre talent as a racecar driver, but since his grandfather is Richard Childress, Dillon has access to excellent equipment. He has been able to make the most of this equipment at Indianapolis over the years, finishing in the Top 10 in all five of his XFINITY starts at Indianapolis and winning the 2014 race. At +2000, his career numbers at Indy are tough to ignoe.

The Sleeper

Austin Cindric (+4000)

Cindric has split time between Roush Fenway Racing and Team Penske this year, but when he has been driving Penske equipment, he has shown the ability to lead laps and run in the Top 10. You might not guess it from his odds, but Cindric will actually be in a Penske car this weekend, and superior equipment should pay dividends at a track like Indianapolis that requires elite horsepower and aerodynamics. I’ll take a flier at +4000 on any driver in Penske equipment.

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2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks and Predictions – Top Sleeper Bets for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend, and there is nothing like some short track racing at the high-banked, half-mile bullring to create some excitement and potentially some upsets.

Short track racing is always a little more unpredictable, and when you factor in the high speeds at Bristol, wrecks and attrition are the norm. If the favorites get taken out by any of these wrecks, we will suddenly have a wide-open race on our hands. If that does happen, here is a closer look at the drivers who I think could be poised to take advantage.

Check out all of my top sleeper bets for Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol.

2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Top Sleepers

Jimmie Johnson (20/1)

Johnson has been having the worst year of his career, but he still managed to stay hot at Bristol, finishing third in the spring race earlier this year. He has now finished 11th or better in seven of the last eight races here, logging a series-best five top-five finishes in that stretch and picking up a win. At 20/1, this isn’t a bad spot to take a chance on the seven-time champ.

Alex Bowman (40/1)

He has been coming on strong in recent weeks, and now, Bowman returns to a track where had one of his best performances in the first half of the year. He finished in the top five in the spring race at Bristol, and with the extra speed he and the rest of Hendrick Motorsports has been showing in recently, Bowman could improve on that result this weekend. You might want to play the hot hand, especially at 40/1.

Joey Logano (44/1)

The best overall value on the board this weekend is Logano, and it’s really not that close. Over the last 10 races at Bristol, he leads all drivers with seven top-10s and ranks fifth in laps led. More importantly, he is one of only two drivers in the field with multiple wins during that same stretch, and the other is betting favorite Kyle Busch. Getting one of the most consistent performers and a proven winner at 44/1 is an absolute steal.

Ryan Newman (100/1)

I know he doesn’t win a lot of races, but 100/1 odds seem a little disrespectful for one of the most dependable options at Bristol. Newman has cracked the top 15 in seven of the last eight races here, picking up back-to-back top-10s. At the very least, he should be running close enough to the front to try to steal a win with some strategy late in the race, and that’s a lot more than you can say about the other drivers getting similar odds.

Bubba Wallace (250/1)

If you are going to make a Hail Mary bet on a total longshot, Wallace would be my guy. He made his first Cup start at Bristol earlier this year, and while he finished 16th, he had a stretch in the middle of the race where he really found some speed. In fact, he actually led a six laps during the race. I’m not sure he has the experience or the equipment to put together a full 500 laps, but Wallace has at least shown he can run up front at Bristol. You can’t ask for much more from a 250/1 longshot.

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2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race: Short track racing returns this weekend when the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Bristol Motor Speedway. The half-mile, high-banked oval will host Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, and while short tracks can shake up the driver hierarchy a bit, you will still find a couple of familiar names among the betting favorites this weekend.

Yes, there will probably be some surprises among the top-10 finishers, but there is still a good chance that one of the weekly frontrunners will visit victory lane again this weekend. With that in mind, let’s check out my top bets among this weekend’s favorites, along with a couple of big names who I’d recommend avoiding in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol.

2018 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (3/1)

Busch has been absolutely dominant at Bristol throughout his career. He is a seven-time winner here, and he is going for a three-peat after winning the night race last year and the spring race earlier this year. Busch has also led more than 2,000 laps here overall, leading more than 100 laps in four of the last six races. Throw in the fact that Busch has been head and shoulders above any driver not named Kevin Harvick this year, and he is a no-brainer favorite at one of his best tracks.

Kyle Larson (4/1)

He has been knocking on the door of a win at Bristol ever since he joined the Cup Series, and Larson has been particularly stout recently. He has led at least 70 laps in each of the last three races, leading at least 200 laps in two of those. Larson was the runner-up at Bristol back in the spring, and I expect him to be one of the top contenders again Saturday night.

Erik Jones (14/1)

The sample size is small, but Jones has shown top-five speed in all three of his Cup starts at Bristol. More importantly, he had one of the dominant cars in the night race here a year ago. Jones led a race-high 260 laps before settling for a second-place finish after an intense battle with the current Bristol king, Kyle Busch.

Ryan Blaney (14/1)

Among the betting favorites, Blaney looks like the best value on the board. Yes, he finished 35th in the spring race at Bristol earlier this year, but he probably had the best car in that race. Blaney led 100 of the first 117 laps, but he was taken out when a couple of lap cars crashed in front of him. He looked well on his way to contending for the win here in April, and at 14/1, I’m willing to see if he can finish what he started and pick up the win this weekend.

Bad Bets

Martin Truex Jr. (10/1)

Truex has been one of top drivers in the series all year, but he just doesn’t have a great feel for Bristol. He has just a single top-10 finish over the last 10 races here, and his last top-five run at the track came in 2012. Truex can barely sniff a decent finish at this place, let a lone a win. Yes, he has been one of the title frontrunners all year, but he doesn’t deserve to be ranked among the favorites this weekend. Don’t waste your money.

Brad Keselowski (12/1)

He has a couple of wins under his belt at Bristol, but Keselowski has been mired in a terrible slump at the track. He has finished outside the top 15 in each of his last five starts here, finishing 23rd or worse in four straight. Keselowski has been hit and miss at Bristol throughout his career, and I can’t see rolling the dice on him at 12/1 odds when he is in the middle of his worst stretch at the track.

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2018 Consumers Energy 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Consumers Energy 400

2018 Consumers Energy 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Consumers Energy 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is visiting Michigan International Speedway this weekend, and while the big names tend to rise to the top at the wide, fast two-mile oval, you won’t to completely ignore the dark horses when betting on this weekend’s Consumers Energy 400.

For one, pit strategy has been known to play a factor at Michigan, and that’s exactly what happened in the June race earlier this year when Clint Bowyer used a two-tire stop and held off Kevin Harvick until rain stopped the race after 133 of the 200 laps.

Perhaps more importantly, a lot of younger drivers have been gaining momentum in recent weeks. Erik Jones and Chase Elliott have both picked up their first career Cup wins in recent weeks, and Alex Bowman, William Byron and Daniel Suarez are all running as well as they ever have in their careers. There has never been a better time pull the trigger on the young guns.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Consumers Energy 400

Top Sleepers

Ryan Blaney (20/1)

His eighth-place finish at Michigan in June doesn’t do Blaney justice. He actually had one of the best cars in that race, leading 15 laps and recording 24 fastest laps. With rain shortening the event, he lost out on a chance to compete for the win, but as strong as the Ford teams were the first time around, he could certainly finish what he started in June during this weekend’s race. I think Blaney is a little underrated at 20/1 this weekend.

Erik Jones (25/1)

The sample size isn’t huge, but Jones has already amassed a decent resume at Michigan. He has a 10.3 average finish in three starts, and he led five laps and finished third in the August race last season. Equally as important, Jones is in the middle of the best stretch of racing of his career. He has finished seventh or better in six of the last seven races, logging back-to-back top-five finishes and picking up his first Cup win a few weeks ago at Daytona. Jones is starting to realize his star potential, and he could be a steal at 25/1 this weekend.

Kurt Busch (25/1)

Busch had an excellent run at Michigan back in June, leading the second-most laps and finishing third. Stewart-Haas Racing actually claimed the top three spots in that race, so SHR clearly has a setup that works at this place. He has now finished 12th or better in his last five starts at MIS, and he owns four career wins at two-mile ovals, including three at Michigan. Add it all up, and Busch looks like one of the better values on the board this weekend.

Daniel Suarez (66/1)

Although he has never had much luck at Michigan in his Cup starts, Suarez does own an XFINITY Series win at the track. More importantly, he has taken a big leap the last couple of weeks, finishing second at Pocono and fourth at Watkins Glen. Momentum means something in NASCAR, and Suarez has it as he heads to a track where he knows he can win. I like his upside at 66/1 this weekend.

Alex Bowman (100/1)

His 16th-place finish at Michigan in June was solid, albeit not spectacular, but Bowman is running as well as he has all season heading into Sunday’s race. He has six top-15 finishes in the last seven races, and he has four top-10 finishes in that span, including a third-place run a couple of weeks ago at Pocono. Hendrick Motorsports has looked much better as a whole in recent weeks, which only adds to Bowman’s appeal as a longshot bet.

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2018 Consumers Energy 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Consumers Energy 400

2018 Consumers Energy 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Consumers Energy 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the second race of the summer at the D-shaped oval. Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 will also be the third race of the year of the year at a two-mile oval, and these big, high-horsepower tracks tend to be kind to the bigger teams that have the most money invested under the hood.

Needless to say, the usual suspects are again listed among the betting favorites this weekend, and with the “Big 3” of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. dominating at a record pace, you need to have plenty of exposure to the frontrunners to maximize your chances of cashing in this weekend.

Check out a closer look at all my tops bets and a few big names to avoid for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Consumers Energy 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (11/4)

Harvick looked like he had the June race at Michigan in the bag, but he had to settle for second when rain cut the race 67 laps short. He still led a race-high 49 laps, and over the last 10 races here, he has a series-best seven top-five finishes and has finished second on five different occasions. Harvick has shown a ton of speed at high-horsepower tracks like MIS, Auto Club and Pocono all season, and he is the safest bet on the board this weekend.

Kyle Busch (13/4)

If you look at Busch’s overall record at Michigan, it actually isn’t that impressive. However, he finished fourth in the June race earlier this season, and no driver has been as consistently great in recent weeks than Busch. He has a series-best nine top-five finishes in the 10 races leading up to Michigan, and he has led 30-plus laps in each of the last three races. Busch is basically a lock to have a shot at the win, which is exactly what you want when betting on one of the heavy favorites.

Kyle Larson (7/1)

He crashed out on a late restart during the June race at Michigan, but don’t forget the resume Larson has amassed at this track. The wreck snapped a streak of three straight victories at MIS, and he has finished third or better in six of the last seven races at two-mile tracks, winning four times in that span. If you want a little more room for profit while still backing a serious threat, Larson is your guy this weekend.

Chase Elliott (10/1)

Elliott is riding a wave of momentum after his win at Watkins Glen, and after struggling a bit early in the year, he is suddenly pushing for wins on a weekly basis. He will take his hot hand to one of his best tracks this weekend, and in five Cup starts at Michigan, Elliott has never finished outside the top 10 and has been the runner-up three times. Among the betting favorites, Elliott is your best value play.

Bad Bets

Martin Truex Jr. (13/4)

He has been one of the most dominant drivers all season, but while Truex has been mentioned alongside Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch as one of the favorites this weekend, he comes with the most red flags. Yes, he had two strong runs at Michigan last year, but he didn’t have the speed to win back in June, settling for an 18th-place finish while Harvick and Busch both finished in the top five. For essentially the same odds, I will take my chances with either of the two drivers who were in the mix for the win before I bet on Truex.

Brad Keselowski (9/1)

His career numbers at Michigan are solid, and Keselowski finished sixth in the June race here earlier this year. However, he has been mired in a slump in recent weeks, finishing outside the top 15 in four of the last five races and finishing outside the top 30 three times over that stretch. There are a lot of younger drivers running really well right now, and I’d rather take a shot on them and their much more favorable odds than roll the dice on a slumping Keselowski at 9/1.

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2018 Rock N Roll Tequila 170 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rock N Roll Tequila 170 Favorites and Sleepers

2018 Rock N Roll Tequila 170 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Rock N Roll Tequila 170 Favorites and Sleepers: Road racing continues this weekend for the NASCAR XFINITY Series this weekend with a trip to the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, and with the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series busy at Michigan International Speedway, we have an interesting entry list for Saturday’s Rock N Roll Tequila 170.

Most of the top XFINITY regulars aren’t exactly road racing veterans, and while there are several road course ringers in great rides this weekend, most of them are inexperienced at the XFINITY level. Throw in the fact that Mid-Ohio has only been on the schedule for five years, and Saturday’s race could be one of the more wide-open events of the season.

2018 NASCAR XFINITY Series Picks and Predictions: Rock N Roll Tequila 170 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers

The Favorites

Justin Marks (3/1)

Casual fans might not be familiar with Marks, but he is one of the most experienced and accomplished road racers in the field this weekend. More importantly, he is the only driver in the field this weekend with an XFINITY win at Mid-Ohio. Marks has finished in the top 10 in three of his four starts at the track and in five of his 12 road course starts overall. Driving for the Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 team that has won three races this year, Marks will have the equipment he needs to return to victory lane at Mid-Ohio.

Justin Allgaier (9/2)

Among the series regulars, Allgaier has shown the most upside at the road courses in his career. In fact, his third-place finish at Watkins Glen last weekend was the best of any driver who is also in the field this weekend. Allgaier has finished in the top 10 in five of his seven road course starts with JR Motorsports, and he has finished in the top 10 in two of his three career starts at Mid-Ohio. He looks like one of the safest bets to be in contention this weekend.

Austin Cindric (5/1)

Cindric has one of the stronger backgrounds in road racing among the XFINITY regulars, and he picked up a road course win as a rookie in the Truck Series last year. He only finished in the top 15 at Watkins Glen last weekend in his first road course start at the XFINITY level, but that finish becomes a little more impressive when you consider that he had to start at the back of the field and was driving for Roush Fenway Racing team ranked 21st in points. This weekend, Cindric will be driving for the Team Penske No. 22 team that has a series-best five wins and is leading the owner standings, and he should have every opportunity to showcase his talent and contend for the win.

Value Bets

Brendan Gaughan (12/1)

Gaughan will make his return to the XFINITY Series this weekend, and he returns at a place where he could contend for the win. He has made 20 career XFINITY starts at road courses, and he has cracked the top 10 in half of them. More importantly, Gaughan has finished in the top 10 at Mid-Ohio in each of the last two seasons. Driving a Richard Childress Racing entry, he will have a chance to get the best of what is an inexperienced field overall.

Kyle Benjamin (12/1)

He has never made a road course start at the XFINITY level, but Benjamin is driving Joe Gibbs Racing equipment this weekend, which immediately gives him a chance. In two XFINITY starts this year, Benjamin has finished eighth and third, respectively, and he has led laps in four of his seven career XFINITY starts with JGR. A young, talented driver in elite equipment is always capable of making noise, especially in a field that doesn’t have any Cup stars double dipping.

Elliott Sadler (20/1)

While he doesn’t have a road course win, Sadler is one of the most consistent performers in the field this weekend. He has 16 top-10 finishes in 25 career road course starts at the XFINITY level, and he has finished in the top 10 in all five starts at Mid-Ohio. With a very unproven field, the experienced veteran could be a great value at 20/1.

The Sleeper

Matt Tifft (28/1)

The sample size is small, but Tifft finished third in his Mid-Ohio debut last year. He actually finished third in two of his first three road course starts at the XFINITY level. It’s only a couple of starts, but Tifft has shown enough to deserve consideration as a longshot bet this weekend.

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2018 Go Bowling at The Glen Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets at The Glen

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Go Bowling at The Glen: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Watkins Glen International this weekend for the second road course race of the 2018 season. The winding track will host Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen, and while road courses can occasionally open the door for strategy plays and surprise winners, plenty of the usual favorites have dominated at The Glen.

In fact, the three betting favorites this weekend are still the same drivers who have been dubbed the “Big 3” this year because of their dominance. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have combined to win 16 races already, and they may be able to add another win to that total Sunday.

Take a closer look at the “Big 3” and all the betting favorites worth backing in this weekend’s Go Bowling at The Glen.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Go Bowling at The Glen

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (3/1)

His numbers at Watkins Glen will stack up with any driver that has ever been behind the wheel. Busch is a two-time winner here, and he has finished in the top 10 in 11 of his 13 starts. He has also led laps in eight of his last 10 starts at Watkins Glen, leading double-digit laps six times and 20-plus laps five times. No driver seems to run up front at The Glen more frequently than Busch, and he should be one of the safest bets available this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)

Truex is fast becoming one of the premier road racers in the Cup Series. He led the most laps and went to victory lane at Watkins Glen a year ago, and he absolutely dominated the field at Sonoma back in June. Truex will try for back-to-back wins The Glen and three straight road course wins this weekend, and for my money, he’s the smartest bet on the board if you like backing the frontrunner.

Brad Keselowski (7/1)

Although he has never won at Watkins Glen, he has finished second three times and has four finishes of third or better in four starts at the track. He has also led at least 20 laps in four of his eight starts at The Glen, leading 20-plus in each of the last three races here. Keselowski always seems to be up front and in the mix for the win at this track, and he offers you about twice the payout potential of the top bets on the board.

Clint Bowyer (9/1)

He is one of the best road racers in the series today, and Bowyer has finished sixth or better in four of his last six starts at The Glen, logging a top-five finish here a year ago. Bower finished third in the first road course race of 2018 at Sonoma back in June, and he should be right back in the mix for the win this weekend. The fact that he has a little more room for profit than some of the other top road racers is just icing on the cake.

Bad Bets

Kevin Harvick (15/4)

Harvick has been one of the best in the series all season long, but Watkins Glen just hasn’t been his best track historically. He has just one top-five finish in the last 10 races here, and he has just three top-five finishes in 17 total starts at the track. At least for this week, I think his fellow championship favorites, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., are the much better bets if you want to back the heavy favorites.

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2018 Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Quaker State 400

2018 Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Quaker State 400: After a wreck-filled trip to Daytona International Speedway, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kentucky Speedway this weekend for Saturday night’s Quaker State 400. The race will be the just the sixth Cup Series event at the track, but it will be the seventh race of the year at a mile-and-a-half track.

While there isn’t an extensive history for Kentucky itself, we only need to look to the another races at the 1.5-mile ovals this year to have an idea of who to back this weekend. More than any other type of track on the schedule, there tends to be a strong correlation between how drivers perform from one 1.5-mile track to the next.

With that in mind, it should be no surprise that a few familiar names top the list of betting favorites this weekend. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. lead my list of drivers to back, and they have combined to win 13 of the 18 races this year, including all six races at mile-and-a-half tracks.

2018 Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Quaker State 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (2/1)

He has been the most dominant performer at the mile-and-a-half ovals this year, winning three times and finishing third or better in five of the six races. Harvick has also led a series-best 600 laps in those starts, and that’s despite missing a majority of the Charlotte race because of a cut tire. His record at Kentucky isn’t as impressive, but he did lead 128 laps here in 2016. Based on the speed he has shown this year, especially at the 1.5-mile ovals, I don’t expect Harvick to slow down Saturday.

Kyle Busch (7/2)

Nobody has been more consistent at the 1.5-mile tracks this year than Busch. In six races, he leads all drivers with a 3.7 average finish, winning three times and leading the second-most laps. Busch has also been excellent at Kentucky throughout his career. He is a two-time winner at the track, and his 5.1 average finish and 549 laps led are both tops in the series. He has actually led more than 100 laps in four of the seven races at Kentucky, including last year’s race. Busch is the safest bet on the board this week.

Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)

Truex led 46 laps and finished in the top 10 at Kentucky in 2016, and last year, he dominated the field, leading a race-high 152 laps and sweeping all three stages. He still doesn’t have a win at a 1.5-mile track in 2018, but his five top-five finishes in the six races are tied for the most of any driver, and he does have three wins under his belt. Truex is pretty much a lock to be in contention for win No. 4 Saturday night and back-to-back wins at Kentucky.

Bad Bets

Clint Bowyer (15/1)

Don’t get me wrong. Bowyer is having an incredible season, and he already has a couple of wins under his belt. He has also been solid at the 1.5-mile tracks, compiling a 10.3 average finish in the six races this year. However, he has led just 21 laps in those six races, and in 451 career starts, Bowyer has managed just one win at a 1.5-mile oval, and that was a fuel mileage win. His numbers at Kentucky aren’t special either, and in seven starts, he has just one top-10 and an 18.9 average finish. Not to mention the fact that he has never led a lap at the track. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win of any driver this weekend, and his history at mile-and-a-half tracks just doesn’t justify those odds.

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2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400

2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Daytona International Speedway this weekend for the third restrictor-plate race of the 2018 season. Thanks to the back racing produced by the restrictor plates, Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 promises to be one of the most wide-open events of the year.

Yes, you will want to put some money down on some longshots this weekend, but while plenty of surprise drivers end up with great finishes, you will usually find a household name in victory lane, so you won’t want to ignore the favorites when trying to hit on the winner. With that in mind, here is a closer look at my top bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.

2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400

Favorites to Bet

Brad Keselowski (7/1)

Nobody has been able to run up front and win at the plate tracks like Keselowski. His six restrictor-plate wins are the most among active drivers, and three of those have come in the last 10 races. Keselowski has also led the most laps of any driver in those same 10 races, and he has led 20-plus laps six times.

Joey Logano (7/1)

Logano won at Talladega back in April, giving him four career restrictor-plate wins. He’s also been the most consistent performer at the plate tracks in recent years, notching a series-best seven top-10s in the last 10 races. Logano has also cracked the top five in the last three restrictor-plate events, and at an unpredictable track, he is your safest bet to be in the mix for the win Saturday night.

Denny Hamlin (10/1)

He’s got a couple of restrictor-plate wins under his belt, and Hamlin always seems to be battling at the front of the field. In fact, he has led laps in nine of the last 10 plate races, and he has led 10 or more laps in four of his last five starts. Hamlin led 22 laps and finished third at Daytona in February, and you can pretty much bank on him having a car capable of winning.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (14/1)

Among the favorites for this weekend’s race, Stenhouse looks like the best value on the board. Not only is he the defending winner of this weekend’s race at Daytona, but his two wins and five top-five finishes in the last eight restrictor-plate races are both tied for the most in the series. His resume is on par with any driver out there, and he will pay double what the favorites will.

Bad Bets

Chase Elliott (12/1)

Elliott has shown plenty of speed at the restrictor-plate tracks, and he actually won a qualifying race at Daytona during Speedweeks. That being said, he has struggled to make it to the finish in many of his plate races, finishing 30th or worse in four of his 10 starts and finishing off the lead lap six times. He is overvalued for a driver who has never won a plate race and is still looking for consistency.

Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)

You might see 20/1 odds for one of the best drivers in the series and think you are getting a steal, but don’t fall for the trap. As great as the defending series champ runs at almost every track on the schedule, the restrictor-plate tracks have been his Achilles’ heel. Truex has finished outside the top 10 in the last nine plate races, leading just nine total laps and finishing outside the top 25 five times in that span.

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