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Author Archives | Brian Polking

2018 Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions: Daytona 500 Dark Horses and Longshots

2018 Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions – Daytona 500 Dark Horses and Longshots: The Daytona 500 is the crown jewel race on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and this Sunday, another driver will add their name to the Harley J. Earl Trophy. Plenty of big names have won “The Great American Race,” but since the advent of restrictor-plates, Daytona and Talladega have become the two most wide-open tracks on the schedule.

With that in mind, Sunday’s race is a perfect opportunity for bettors to take a chance on a few longshots to try to hit a big payout at one of NASCAR’s most unpredictable tracks. Here is a closer look at my favorite sleeper bets for the 2018 Daytona 500.

2018 Daytona 500 Picks and Predictions: Daytona 500 Dark Horses and Longshots

The Dark Horses

Kurt Busch (25/1)

I know he only has one restrictor-plate win in his career, but that win came in last year’s Daytona 500. He has also been the most reliable performer at the plate tracks the last few years. In the last 10 races, Busch’s seven Top-10s are the most of any driver, and his 12.0 average finish during that same span is also tops in the series. These are pretty enticing odds for a driver who always seems to be dicing it up at the front of the field when it counts at the plate tracks.

Jamie McMurray (30/1)

McMurray is always worth throwing a bet at when the series visits a plate track, and he is definitely worth a look at these odds. He is a former winner of the Daytona 500, and his four restrictor-plate wins rank fourth among active drivers. Yes, he has been a checkers-or-wreckers driver in plate races, but we are talking about picking a winner, and few active drivers have been better at sealing the deal.

Aric Almirola (35/1)

Years of mid-pack performances have no doubt soured oddsmakers and bettors on Almirola, but don’t overlook him this weekend. For one, he has already amassed a solid resume at the plate tracks. He is a former winner at the July race at Daytona, and he has cracked the Top 10 in the last four restrictor-plate races. Almirola also joined Stewart-Haas Racing this offseason, giving him the best equipment he has ever worked with at the Cup level. I think he is way undervalued in this one.

The Longshots

Paul Menard (40/1)

Menard has only one victory in his career, a fuel mileage win in the Brickyard 400. He deserves to be a longshot, for sure, but I like his chances of springing an upset. He is an underrated plate racer to begin with, and he has five straight Top 15s at the plate tracks, including a pair of Top-5s at Daytona last year. Perhaps more importantly, he joined Wood Brothers Racing in the offseason, an organization with a technical alliance with Team Penske. Penske cars have dominated the plate tracks the last couple of years, and they dominated in the Clash at Daytona to kick off Speedweeks. Menard will have the same equipment at his disposal, and he should have a car capable of challenging for the win.

Trevor Bayne (50/1)

He pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Daytona 500 history when he won the 2011 event, but it is his recent performances at the plate tracks that have me encouraged. Bayne ranks 11th in points scored over the last 10 plate races, and he has five Top-10s in that span. He also drives for a Ford team, and the Fords have absolutely owned the plate tracks in recently, winning eight of the last 10 races. Bayne’s teammate, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., won two plate races last year and has become one of the frontrunners for Sunday’s race. Bayne has the same equipment and will pay a lot more if he ends up in victory lane.

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2018 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Daytona 500 Favorites

2018 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Daytona 500 Favorites: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series officially kicks off this weekend with the 60th running of the Daytona 500. While it may be the season opener, it is also the most prestigious race of the year. Daytona International Speedway is hallowed ground in auto racing, and “The Great American Race” is the one race that every NASCAR driver wants to win.

From a betting standpoint, the Daytona 500 also happens to be one of the toughest races to predict. Daytona is one of two restrictor-plate tracks on the schedule, and while the plates control speeds and help keep cars from flying into the stands, they also create pack racing and lead to massive, multi-car wrecks.

Races at Daytona are more about survival and timing than pure speed, but as unpredictable as plate racing can be, plenty of big names still manage to win the Daytona 500. I’ll certainly be eyeing my share of longshots this weekend, but there are also some obvious favorites that deserve your attention.

Check out a closer look at all of my favorites for the 2018 Daytona 500. 

2018 Daytona 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Daytona 500 Favorites

The Favorites 

He kicked off Speedweeks with a victory in the Clash, and Brad Keselowski could solidify his status as one of the best plate racers in history with a Daytona 500 win. He already leads all active drivers with six restrictor-plate wins, and three of those wins have come in the last seven races. Keselowski has also led 30-plus laps five times in that stretch, and no driver seems to be able to get out front and stay there as well as he can right now.

Team Penske has been locked in at the plate tracks recently, and Joey Logano has developed into one of the best in the business. He has scored the third-most points in the last 10 plate races, finishing sixth or better six times. Logano has two wins over that span, and he is also the winner of the 2015 Daytona 500. Logano finished second in the Clash last weekend, and he should be right back in the mix for the win this Sunday.

He is the defending winner of the Daytona 500, and no driver has been more dependable at the plate tracks recently than Kurt Busch. His seven Top 10s in the last 10 plate races are the most of any driver, and his 12.0 average finish in that span is also tops in the series. Busch might not have a bunch of restrictor-plate wins, but he is one of the safest bets to be near the front, and it paid off in the form of a Daytona 500 win last year.

He already has a Daytona 500 win under his belt, and Denny Hamlin could add a second victory this weekend. Since 2015, no driver has scored more points at Daytona, and Hamlin also ranks in the Top 5 in driver points scored over the last 10 plate races. Hamlin is set to start on the front row this weekend, and he is on the short list of elite plate racers in the Cup Series these days.

There are only a handful of tracks where Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a legitimate threat to reach victory lane, but Daytona is definitely on the list. He won the July race at the track last year and won the spring race at Talladega. In addition to his two plate wins in 2017, Stenhouse has four Top 5s in the last six plate races overall. Stenhouse has emerged as one of the top plate drivers in the series, and a Daytona 500 win would cement his status as one of the elite at the superspeedways.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Top Championship Sleeper Bets

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Top Championship Sleeper Bets: The 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season officially begins this weekend, but before the green flag waves at Daytona, you can still place some future bets on the eventual champion. I already highlighted some of my favorite bets among the serious contenders, but if you want to turn a smaller bet into a big payout, you need to take a chance on a dark horse or two.

With the season set to begin, here is a closer look at my favorite longshot bets to win the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Top Championship Sleeper Bets

Top Sleeper Bets

Jimmie Johnson (15/1)

The 2017 season was a rough for Johnson. His four top-five finishes, 11 top-10s and 16.8 average finish were all the worst marks of his career, but I still think he is a little undervalued. He currently has the eighth-best odds to win the title, but I’m not sure there are seven other guys I’d rather have to put my money on than the seven-time champ. After all, he had arguably the second-worst year of his career in 2016, and he still managed to win the championship that season. Johnson and Chad Knaus are masters at exploiting the rules, and they showed two years ago that all it takes is a few well-timed wins to steal away the title. As bad as he was last year, Johnson still managed to win three times. Even if the Chevrolet’s switch to Camaro doesn’t bring about the improvements many expect, Johnson is still very dangerous.

Erik Jones (20/1)

It would take a sizeable leap for Jones to go from missing the playoffs as a rookie to winning the title as a sophomore, but that’s the type of talent he has. He more than lived up to the hype in his first year, finishing with 14 Top 10s and leading 310 laps. More importantly, he clearly got comfortable as the year progressed, and seven of his nine finishes of sixth or better came from August on. Jones also moved to Joe Gibbs Racing over the offseason, and top to bottom, JGR is probably the best organization in NASCAR right now. I’ll be shocked if Jones doesn’t win a race this year, and if his second half surge was any indication, he has potential to be a top-five driver in this series. If I’m taking a flier on a championship dark horse, I’ll gladly put my money on a young talent in elite equipment.

Ryan Blaney (30/1)

His 17.2 average finish last year doesn’t scream championship contender, but Blaney displayed a high ceiling despite his boom-or-bust tendencies. He won his first race and posted 14 top-10s. He also ranked ninth in driver rating, 11th in average running position and 13th in green flag speed. In other words, Blaney was a borderline top-10 driver last year in just his second full-time season, and over the offseason, he moved from Wood Brothers Racing to Team Penske. Another year of experience and a move to one of the premier teams in the sport should only speed up Blaney’s development, and he is another young driver dripping with upside that I’m happy to take a chance on at his current odds.

Kurt Busch (80/1)

I’m starting to dip into some serious longshots, but Busch is a former series champion that could be due for a big rebound in 2018. Prior to last season, his Stewart-Haas Racing made a surprise switch to Ford. The move should have long-term benefits for the organization, but it no doubt put a short-term strain on the SHR teams, and it explains Busch’s decline in production. In both 2015 and 2016, Busch registered more than 20 top-10 finishes, posting average finishes of 11.1 and 12.0, respectively. With another year for Busch and his team to get acclimated to Ford, there is a decent chance he will once again be a driver who contends for top-10s on a weekly basis. If that happens, he will look like a potential steal at these odds.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (200/1)

It will take a small miracle for Stenhouse to advance in the playoffs, let alone reach the final race and win the championship, but if I’m throwing a few bucks at a complete shot-in-the-dark option, Stenhouse at least has an inside track to the playoffs because of his plate track prowess. Stenhouse won two plate races last year, and one win will put him in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Talladega is in the playoffs, so if he can sneak out of the first round, he could win his way to the later stages. Again, the odds of Stenhouse winning it all are almost nonexistent, but among the drivers with similar odds, he is the only one with a realistic chance to even make the playoffs and have a chance.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Preseason Predictions

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Preseason Predictions: The 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is just a few weeks away from beginning, and while there are sure to be plenty of surprises between the green flag at Daytona and the checkered flag at Homestead, I’m already going to fast forward to the end of the year and do some predictions for the upcoming season.

In NASCAR’s current playoff format, a 16-driver field is reduced to just four drivers for the championship finale at Homestead. I’ll be giving my predictions for the drivers who will be a part of the Championship 4, along with my picks for the 2018 series champion and 2018 Rookie of the Year.

Check out my picks.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Preseason Predictions

Championship 4 Driver Predictions:

Sustaining dominance in NASCAR can be difficult, but I don’t think the championship window has closed on Martin Truex Jr. just yet. He led more than 1,800 laps and won four times in 2016, and last year he led more than 2,200 laps and won eight times on his way to the series crown. He has been particularly dominant at the 1.5-mile ovals, which gives him a nice advantage come playoff time with the way the schedule sets up. Even if Truex’s performance slips a bit or the competition closes the gap, he’ll still be good enough to compete for the title. I think Truex is the safest bet to reach the championship race.

He was the runner-up last year, and Kyle Busch has been in the championship race in each of the last three seasons, winning the 2015 crown. What has been particularly impressive about Busch is his sudden consistency. In addition to winning at least four races in each of the past three seasons, he posted a career-high 25 Top 10s in 2016 and 22 Top 10s last year. His ability to win races and always run near the front gives him multiple options for advancing through the playoffs, and I expect Busch to be back in the title race in 2018.

A trip to the championship race seemed inevitable for Kyle Larson last year, but engine issues during the playoffs brought a shocking end to his title run. On the plus side, he emerged as a legitimate star in the sport, winning four times and leading the third-most laps of any driver. I expect the speed to still be there in 2018, and the racing gods owe him one. Larson will reach the championship race.

He took a big step forward in 2017, and Chase Elliott was a weekly top-five driver during last year’s playoff run, leading laps and contending for wins with regularity. I expect him to continue his upward trend in his third full-time season, and his prowess at the flat tracks should prove particularly useful with Martinsville and Phoenix among the final three races leading up to the finale at Homestead. Elliott’s best season yet will end with a spot in the championship race.

2018 Champion Prediction:

He will probably always be known as an all-or-nothing driver, but Kyle Busch has been remarkably consistent the last few seasons. He still wins plenty of races and leads tons of lap, but Busch is also piling up 20-plus Top 10s with regularity. That blend of consistency and elite upside makes him a perennial title threat. In fact, he could easily be a three-time defending series champion if not for ill-timed cautions in the championship race in 2016 and 2017. I think luck will be on Busch’s side in 2018, and he will add a second title to his 2015 crown.

Rookie of the Year Prediction:

The Cup Series is as loaded with young talent as it has ever been, and William Byron could be the next star. He can’t even buy a beer yet, but don’t expect the lack of experience to stop him from winning Rookie of the Year honors. Two years ago, he won seven races as a rookie in the Truck Series. Last year, he won four races and the XFINITY Series title as a rookie in that series. He drives well beyond his years, maximizing his results when he has an average car and delivering wins and Top 5s when he hits the setup. Driving for a powerhouse team like Hendrick Motorsports should also give him an edge over his toughest competition, Darrell Wallace Jr., and I expect Byron to win Rookie of the Year honors with relative ease

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2018 XFINITY Series Season Predictions: Championship Favorites and Contenders

2018 XFINITY Series Season Predictions: Championship Favorites and Contenders: NASCAR is about to return, and while the Cup Series drivers are preparing for the Daytona 500, the XFINITY Series drivers are also getting geared up for the 2018 season.

Last year, rookie William Byron took home the championship, but with Byron moving on to the Cup Series, the there is a mix of newcomers and seasoned veterans waiting to contend for this year’s crown.

JR Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are once again the top organizations in the sport, but they aren’t the only teams fielding potential title threats. With the 2018 season just a couple of weeks away from beginning, here is a closer look at the top contenders for the 2018 XFINITY Series championship.

2018 XFINITY Series Season Predictions: Championship Favorites and Contenders

The Favorites

The heartbreak continued for Elliott Sadler in 2017, as he came within a few agonizing laps of winning the XFNITY Series title that has eluded him throughout his career. Instead, he settled for his second consecutive runner-up finish in the series and fourth runner-up finish in the last seven seasons. Sadler led the series with 25 Top 10s, and his 12 Top 5s were tied for the most. The veteran is as consistent as they come, and there is no reason to think he won’t be right in the thick of the title hunt again in 2018.

After capturing the Truck Series crown in 2017, Christopher Bell will jump to full-time XFINITY Series racing this season with Joe Gibbs Racing. Bell is one of the top up-and-comers in NASCAR, and driving for one of the best organizations in the sport will only help his cause. Bell showcased his upside in part-time duty last year, picking up a win and four Top 10s in eight starts. He has already shown he can win at this level, and he is going to be an immediate threat for the title.

Despite being a rookie for a Stewart-Haas Racing organization that was debuting in the XFINITY Series, Cole Custer came on strong down the stretch and came within a few spots of making the championship finale, a race he won by the way in dominating fashion. His 19 Top 10s ranked third among series regulars, and his 301 laps led ranked second. With another year of experience for both Custer and SHR should yield even better results in 2018, and I fully expect him to make the Championship 4 in his sophomore campaign.

He took a bit of a step back from his career year in 2016, but Justin Allgaier still made the Championship 4 for the second year in a row in 2017. He also ranked third in Top 5s among series regulars and was tied for fourth in Top 10s. Allgaier also showed a high ceiling, winning twice and leading all series regulars with 495 laps led. He can be a little streakier than some of the other top options, but his ability to run up front and contend for wins should put him back in the title picture in 2018.

The Contenders

He was one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, and Daniel Hemric ended up making the Championship 4 at Homestead as a rookie. A mechanical issue early in the final race dashed his title hopes, but Hemric still finished with the fourth-best average finish of any series regular. Another year of experience should only help his cause, and after what he accomplished last year, he certainly can’t be counted out.

Although he took a big step backward in 2017 compared to the numbers he amassed as a rookie the year before, Brandon Jones could bounce back in a big way this season. After all, he joined Joe Gibbs Racing this offseason, one of the premier organizations at the XFINITY level. Whether or not Jones has the talent to take advantage of the situation remains to be seen, but any driver in JGR equipment has a chance to contend.

After cutting his teeth with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2017, Tyler Reddick will jump to full-time racing this year. More importantly, he will jump to full-time racing with JR Motorsports, the organization that put three drivers in the Championship 4 last year. Reddick picked up a win and six Top 10s in 18 starts last year, and a much bigger year could be on tap for him in 2018.

It’s a make-or-break year for Ryan Truex, who landed a full-time ride with Kaulig Racing. He has been bouncing around different rides in different series the last few years, and if he is ever going to make it to the Cup Series, he needs to have a big season in 2018. Blake Koch was able to make the playoffs while driving for the same team, and I think Truex is better behind the wheel. He could be the surprise of the season.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview: Championship Favorites and Contenders

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview – Championship Favorites and Contenders: Speedweeks is fast approaching, but before cars start to hit the track at Daytona International Speedway, it’s time to talk about the championship contenders for 2018. Last year, Martin Truex Jr. claimed the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series crown, capping a dominant season.

The defending champ wants again makes my list of title favorites for 2018, but there are plenty of other perennial contenders waiting to dethrone him, along with one of the deepest crops of up-and-comers in recent memory.

Get ready for the 2018 Cup Series with a closer look at all of my top championship contenders.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview: Championship Favorites and Contenders

The Favorites

Defending series champion Martin Truex Jr. was the class of the field from start to finish last year, and while repeating is never easy, his dominance at the 1.5-mile ovals the last couple of seasons bodes well for his chances. He led the series in just about every statistical category last season, so even if his competition has closed to gap, he should still be a championship-caliber driver.

Despite an offseason switch to Ford, Kevin Harvick still found himself racing for a title at Homestead for the third time in his four seasons with Stewart-Haas Racing. More importantly, Harvick improved as the year went on, and I fully expect the late-season momentum to carry into 2018. He has been the model of consistency with SHR, and one of the safest bets to be in the title mix this year.

He came within one spot of winning his second Cup title last year, and Kyle Busch was really the only driver who could consistently hang with eventual champion Martin Truex Jr. in terms of week-to-week speed. Busch has always been able to win plenty of races, and his last two seasons have been his best from a consistency standpoint. Busch shows no signs of leaving the title scene any time soon.

Engine issues at the worst possible time cost Kyle Larson a chance to compete for the championship last year, but 2017 was still a breakout year for the uber-talented young gun. He won four races, emerging as a contender at almost every type of track on the schedule and finishing third in laps led. Don’t be surprised if he takes another step forward in 2018 and is racing for the title at Homestead.

The Contenders

It has been a rough couple of seasons for Jimmie Johnson, and he finished 2017 with a career-low four top-five finishes. Despite experiencing some of his worst years in terms of consistency, he still managed to pick up the title in 2016 with a few timely wins. You simply can’t count out the seven-time champ, and while he doesn’t deserve to be considered the frontrunner, he shouldn’t be written off either.

He led the series in complaining about the Toyotas in 2017, but for all the whining Brad Keselowski did, he still managed to make the championship finale. He is one of the most consistent, well-rounded drivers in the series today, and his ability to contend for Top 5s and wins at every type of track makes him a player in this current title format

While he is still looking for his first Cup Series win, Chase Elliott showed last year that he is turning into a legitimate title contender. Near wins at Martinsville and Phoenix late in the year would have put him in the championship race, and Elliott started to lead laps on a routine basis in the second half of 2017. Look for Elliott to pick up his first win and then some this season.

He tends to run as hot and cold as any of the top drivers, but Denny Hamlin has quietly strung together the two most consistent seasons of his career in 2016 and 2017. He just missed out on the championship finale last year, and as impressive as Joe Gibbs Racing was as a whole last year, Hamlin should be right back in contention in 2018.

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2017-18 NBA Picks and Predictions: Midseason Award Winners

2017-18 NBA Picks and Predictions – Midseason Award Winners: Believe it or not the 2017-18 season is already hitting its halfway point, and a few teams have already played more than half of their games. Although it’s far too early to declare any player a lock for one of the major awards, that doesn’t mean frontrunners haven’t emerged. The big games leading up to the playoffs could go a long way to tipping the scales in favor of one player or another, but in the meantime, here are my midseason picks for all of the major NBA awards.

2017-18 NBA Picks and Predictions: Midseason Award Winners

Most Valuable Player: LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers

Considering the four-time MVP is having arguably the best season of his career, this pick is easily justifiable from a statistical standpoint. Normally, I would expect LeBron fatigue to cause votes to gravitate to someone else, but that someone was going to be James Harden, and now he is going to be on the shelf for a few weeks. Missing chunks of time isn’t a death sentence when it comes to NBA awards, but for now, I think Harden’s absence puts James in the top spot.

Runner-Up: James Harden, SG, Houston Rockets

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors

Green is the defending winner of this award, and since Rudy Gobert and Kawhi Leonard have been battling injuries all year, he is the frontrunner once again. He ranks seventh in defensive real plus-minus, and he ranks second among players who see more than 30 minutes of action and haven’t missed stretches with injuries. Green’s versatility makes him one of the few players who can defend any position on the court, and he is the main reason why the Warriors rank first in the Western Conference and second in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage.

Runner-Up: Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans

Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams, SG, Los Angeles Clippers

Williams has been instant offense off the bench for the injury plagued Clippers, and the 2015 Sixth Man of the Year is having his most efficient, prolific season. He is averaging 22.2 points per game on 44.4 percent shooting, and he is hitting 2.8 3-pointers per game at a 40.7 percent clip. Williams has a half dozen 30-plus-point performances off the bench this year, and he is scoring his way to Sixth Man honors once again.

Runner-Up: Dwyane Wade, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers

Most Improved Player: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana Pacers

It took another change of scenery, but Oladipo looks like a new player this season. Not only is he averaging a career-high 24.5 points per game, but his 49.2 shooting percentage is by far the best of his career, 50 points better than his previous high. He is also averaging career highs in rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and 3-pointers, and his PER is good enough for 11th in the entire NBA.

Runner-Up: Giannis Antetokounmpo, F, Milwaukee Bucks 

Coach of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics

Yes, he is benefitting from an influx in talent, but Stevens has guided the suddenly loaded Celtics straight to the top of the Eastern Conference despite Gordon Hayward being lost to a devastating leg injury in the first game. He has done an excellent job incorporating young players with veterans, and he has the Celtics buying in on the defensive end. Boston is allowing the fewest points per game in the entire NBA, and Stevens deservers plenty of credit.

Runner-Up: Tom Thibodeau, Minnesota Timberwolves

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NFL Playoff Picks and Predictions: Divisional Round Matchups January 13-14, 2018

NFL Playoff Picks and Predictions: Divisional Round Matchups January 13-14, 2018: The first weekend of the NFL playoffs is in the books, and the Wild Card Round trimmed the field of 12 to a field of eight. The action continues this weekend with the Divisional Round, and after receiving byes, the top two seeds in each conference will enter the mix.

In the AFC, the Tennessee Titans will try to follow up their upset of the Kansas City Chiefs when they face the top-seeded and Super Bowl favorite New England Patriots. The other matchup features the Jacksonville Jaguars, fresh off an ugly win over the Buffalo Bills, against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Over in the NFC, the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles are set to take on the defending conference champion Atlanta Falcons, and the New Orleans Saints will face the Minnesota Vikings.

Here is a closer look at all four Divisional Round matchups, along with my predictions for each.

NFL Playoff Picks and Predictions: Divisional Round Matchups January 13-14, 2018

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are the No. 1 seed in the NFC and are playing at home, but there is a reason that Falcons are favored. With Nick Foles starting in place of the injured Carson Wentz, Philadelphia managed a combined 25 points over the final two weeks, and the running game all but disappeared. The defense was also inconsistent down the stretch, allowing big games to Jared Goff and Eli Manning over the final four weeks. On the flip side, Atlanta’s defense has been on the upswing, and they grounded the top-ranked offense of the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card Round. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company would have been a dangerous No. 6 seed even if the Eagles were at full strength. Without Wentz to lead the attack, the Falcons will move on.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons (-3) Cover the Spread

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

Although this is a huge spread for a playoff game, it is more than justifiable given the circumstances. Yes, the Titans found a way to beat the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round, but the Chiefs blowing home playoff games is par for the course. On the other hand, the Patriots don’t lose at Foxboro, especially in the playoffs. Tom Brady is playing at an MVP level, and Rob Gronkowski is as healthy as he has been this late in the year in quite some time. Tennessee will do its best to slow the pace by pounding Derrick Henry, but New England will force Marcus Mariota to beat them, and he threw more interceptions than touchdowns this season. The Titans just aren’t going to be able to keep pace with the Brady and company, and this one should get ugly in the second half.

Prediction: New England Patriots (-13.5) Cover the Spread

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes, the Jaguars went into Pittsburgh earlier this year and clobbered the Steelers 30-9, picking off Ben Roethlisberger five times, but that is going to mean absolutely nothing come Sunday. Roethlisberger has been locked in down the stretch, and while Antonio Brown may be a little less than 100 percent, his injury allowed rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster to develop as a big-play weapon in his own right. On the flips side, Blake Bortles looked incompetent as a passer in the Wild Card round, allowing a bad Buffalo run defense to hold Leonard Fournette in check. You can bet that Pittsburgh is going to sell out to stop the run, as well. Running the ball and playing elite defense has carried the Jaguars this far, but the Steelers have the superior offensive firepower, and Roethlisberger isn’t going to gift wrap another game for Jacksonville.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) Cover the Spread

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

A lot has changed since the Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 early in the regular season. In that meeting, Sam Bradford torched the Saints for 346 yards and three scores, and Adrian Peterson was still part of the New Orleans backfield. Fast forward several months, and an injured Bradford has been replaced by the surprising Case Keenum, and the Saints shipped out Peterson, paving the way for the dynamic backfield combo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Granted, Minnesota ranks first in just about every conceivable defensive category, but New Orleans has improved a lot on the defensive side of the ball, and Drew Brees is leading arguably the most balanced offensive attack in the league. I expect this to be a lower-scoring game, especially by New Orleans’ standards, but with the pressure at an all-time high, I have a feeling that Keenum is going to look a lot more like the journeyman he was throughout his career, rather than the quality starter he has been this year. I’ll take Brees and four points.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints (+4) Cover the Spread

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Posted in NFLComments Off on NFL Playoff Picks and Predictions: Divisional Round Matchups January 13-14, 2018

2017 NFL Picks and Predictions: Regular Season Award Winners

2017 NFL Picks and Predictions – Regular Season Award Winners: Another NFL regular season is in the books, and while the playoffs have just begun, postseason stats don’t matter when it comes to crowning the top individual players of the 2017 regular season.

For the most part, I think this year’s awards will be mostly easy to predict. Aside from the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, there appear to be clear cut favorites who have stood out from the pack. Of course, voters can always pull a few surprises, but I’m confident my final award predictions for the 2017 NFL season will match the official results.

2017 NFL Picks and Predictions: Regular Season Award Winners

Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

The knee injury to Carson Wentz wiped out Brady’s top competition for MVP honors, and as impressive as Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley was this year, he didn’t have that type of unforgettable season that allows a non-QB to win the award. Brady led New England to the top seed in the AFC, and he finished in the top five in almost every statistical category, finishing in the top three in quarterback rating, passing yards and touchdowns. His career accomplishments certainly don’t hurt his case either. I think Brady takes the MVP Award by a comfortable margin.

Offensive Player of the Year: Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Voters have a way of rewarding the top non-quarterback with Offensive Player of the Year honors, and I expect that to happen again this year. Gurley finished second in the NFL in rushing and scored a league-high 19 times. He also caught 64 passes for 788 yards, putting him over 2,000 yards from scrimmage for a resurgent Rams offense. Gurley emerged as an every-down force for the NFC West champs, and I expect his efforts to be rewarded with some hardware.

Defensive Player of the Year: Calais Campbell, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars

Although he isn’t the only factor, Campbell played a huge role in transforming Jacksonville’s defense in his first year with the team. He finished second in the NFL with 14.5 sacks, and the Jaguars finished second in the NFL in yards allowed, points allowed and sacks. The veteran had his finest season to date, and he helped Jacksonville end a long postseason drought by anchoring a stingy defensive unit. Campbell should win DPOY honors somewhat easily.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Of all the awards up for grabs, I expect this one to be the most hotly contested. My vote would go for New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara. He led all rookies in touchdowns, and he was more explosive and versatile than Hunt. However, Hunt did win the rushing title as a rookie, and I think that will carry enough weight with voters to tip the scales in his favor.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints

The Saints have had a laughable defense for years, but Lattimore instantly transformed the unit. Stepping in as the team’s top corner and playing respectable football would have been enough, but the rookie finished with five interceptions and 18 passes defensed. Lattimore will win this award in a landslide.

Coach of the Year: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

Last year, the Rams owned arguably the worst offense in the NFL. In McVay’s first year running the show, the Rams scored an NFL-best 29.9 points per game with many of the same pieces. Quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley both thrived in McVay’s system, and the Rams secured a postseason spot by winning the NFC West. It was a heck of a turnaround, and McVay will be rewarded by being named Coach of the Year.

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2018 College Football Picks & Predictions: First Look at the Heisman Trophy Contenders

2018 College Football Picks and Predictions – First Look at the Heisman Trophy Contenders: The 2017 College Football season is almost in the books, and while Alabama and Georgia will battle for the national championship, Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield already etched his name in the record books by claiming this year’s Heisman Memorial Trophy.

Mayfield won’t be back next year, and neither will 2016 winner and 2017 finalist Lamar Jackson. The path is paved for a new group of contenders to emerge in 2018, and while next year is months and months away, it’s not to soon to take a look at some potential Heisman contenders for 2018 before college football goes into hibernation for bit.

Check out a first look at my top contenders for the 2018 Heisman Trophy.

2018 College Football Picks and Predictions: First Look at the Heisman Trophy Contenders

The Favorites

Assuming he decides to return to Stanford instead of entering the 2018 NFL Draft, Bryce Love will certainly be one of the Heisman favorites next season. Despite battling an ankle injury much of the year and missing a game, he finished second in the country with 2,118 rushing yards. Love also scored 19 times while averaging a ridiculous 8.1 yards per carry. Those numbers were good enough for a runner-up finish in this year’s Heisman voting, and he could walk away with the trophy with a similar performance next season.

Regardless of the outcome of Monday’s championship game, Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts has still managed to lead the Crimson Tide to the national title game in each of his first two years as a starter. He is also the X-factor for an otherwise run-heavy offense. Hurts has rushed for more than 800 yards in each of his seasons as the starter, and this year, he threw 17 touchdowns compared to just one interception. If he continues to progress as a passer while making plays with his legs, Alabama should be back in the title mix in 2018. If the Crimson Tide find themselves back in the College Football Playoff next year, it will be tough to overlook the guy that has been under center for the impressive run.

An impressive freshman season ended with Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor running for 1,977 yards, good enough for third in the country. The workhorse back helped the Badgers finish with an Orange Bowl win and a 13-1 record, and he should only get bigger and stronger with a year of experience under his belt. Wisconsin always boasts one of the top offensive lines in the country, and Taylor has a great shot to cruise past 2,000 yards next season. He was on the Heisman radar in 2017, and he looks like a serious contender for the award in 2018.

The Contenders

Ohio State has seen some great running backs in its day, but J.K. Dobbins set a new freshman record this year by rushing for 1,403 yards. He averaged an impressive 7.2 yards per carry, and he showed up in big games, topping 100 yards against Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. Quarterback J.T. Barrett won’t be around in 2018, so the Buckeyes will likely lean on Dobbins and the ground game even more in 2018. An Ezekiel Elliott-type season is certainly possible for Dobbins as he becomes the focal point of the offense for a team that will have championship aspirations.

The NFL scouts are already high on Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, and he could be on the radar of Heisman voters by the end of 2018. He threw for 15 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 yards while running for five scores despite missing five games, and the Ducks lost four of the five games he was sidelined, leaving little doubt about his value to this team. Herbert has the tools to break out as the leader of an always-dangerous Oregon offense.

Playing behind Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will make it tough for any running back to get noticed, but with both players headed for the NFL, D’Andre Swift will have the Georgia backfield to himself in 2018. Swift is an absolute burner, and he is capable of beating defenses as a running back and a receiver. He is averaging 7.8 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per catch heading into the national title game, piling up 749 total yards on just 92 touches. His usage could nearly triple next year, so it’s easy to envision Swift putting together the type of numbers that generate Heisman buzz.

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