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Author Archives | Brian Polking

2018 Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Quaker State 400

2018 Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Quaker State 400: After a wreck-filled trip to Daytona International Speedway, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kentucky Speedway this weekend for Saturday night’s Quaker State 400. The race will be the just the sixth Cup Series event at the track, but it will be the seventh race of the year at a mile-and-a-half track.

While there isn’t an extensive history for Kentucky itself, we only need to look to the another races at the 1.5-mile ovals this year to have an idea of who to back this weekend. More than any other type of track on the schedule, there tends to be a strong correlation between how drivers perform from one 1.5-mile track to the next.

With that in mind, it should be no surprise that a few familiar names top the list of betting favorites this weekend. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. lead my list of drivers to back, and they have combined to win 13 of the 18 races this year, including all six races at mile-and-a-half tracks.

2018 Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Quaker State 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (2/1)

He has been the most dominant performer at the mile-and-a-half ovals this year, winning three times and finishing third or better in five of the six races. Harvick has also led a series-best 600 laps in those starts, and that’s despite missing a majority of the Charlotte race because of a cut tire. His record at Kentucky isn’t as impressive, but he did lead 128 laps here in 2016. Based on the speed he has shown this year, especially at the 1.5-mile ovals, I don’t expect Harvick to slow down Saturday.

Kyle Busch (7/2)

Nobody has been more consistent at the 1.5-mile tracks this year than Busch. In six races, he leads all drivers with a 3.7 average finish, winning three times and leading the second-most laps. Busch has also been excellent at Kentucky throughout his career. He is a two-time winner at the track, and his 5.1 average finish and 549 laps led are both tops in the series. He has actually led more than 100 laps in four of the seven races at Kentucky, including last year’s race. Busch is the safest bet on the board this week.

Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)

Truex led 46 laps and finished in the top 10 at Kentucky in 2016, and last year, he dominated the field, leading a race-high 152 laps and sweeping all three stages. He still doesn’t have a win at a 1.5-mile track in 2018, but his five top-five finishes in the six races are tied for the most of any driver, and he does have three wins under his belt. Truex is pretty much a lock to be in contention for win No. 4 Saturday night and back-to-back wins at Kentucky.

Bad Bets

Clint Bowyer (15/1)

Don’t get me wrong. Bowyer is having an incredible season, and he already has a couple of wins under his belt. He has also been solid at the 1.5-mile tracks, compiling a 10.3 average finish in the six races this year. However, he has led just 21 laps in those six races, and in 451 career starts, Bowyer has managed just one win at a 1.5-mile oval, and that was a fuel mileage win. His numbers at Kentucky aren’t special either, and in seven starts, he has just one top-10 and an 18.9 average finish. Not to mention the fact that he has never led a lap at the track. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win of any driver this weekend, and his history at mile-and-a-half tracks just doesn’t justify those odds.

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2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400

2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Daytona International Speedway this weekend for the third restrictor-plate race of the 2018 season. Thanks to the back racing produced by the restrictor plates, Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 promises to be one of the most wide-open events of the year.

Yes, you will want to put some money down on some longshots this weekend, but while plenty of surprise drivers end up with great finishes, you will usually find a household name in victory lane, so you won’t want to ignore the favorites when trying to hit on the winner. With that in mind, here is a closer look at my top bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.

2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400

Favorites to Bet

Brad Keselowski (7/1)

Nobody has been able to run up front and win at the plate tracks like Keselowski. His six restrictor-plate wins are the most among active drivers, and three of those have come in the last 10 races. Keselowski has also led the most laps of any driver in those same 10 races, and he has led 20-plus laps six times.

Joey Logano (7/1)

Logano won at Talladega back in April, giving him four career restrictor-plate wins. He’s also been the most consistent performer at the plate tracks in recent years, notching a series-best seven top-10s in the last 10 races. Logano has also cracked the top five in the last three restrictor-plate events, and at an unpredictable track, he is your safest bet to be in the mix for the win Saturday night.

Denny Hamlin (10/1)

He’s got a couple of restrictor-plate wins under his belt, and Hamlin always seems to be battling at the front of the field. In fact, he has led laps in nine of the last 10 plate races, and he has led 10 or more laps in four of his last five starts. Hamlin led 22 laps and finished third at Daytona in February, and you can pretty much bank on him having a car capable of winning.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (14/1)

Among the favorites for this weekend’s race, Stenhouse looks like the best value on the board. Not only is he the defending winner of this weekend’s race at Daytona, but his two wins and five top-five finishes in the last eight restrictor-plate races are both tied for the most in the series. His resume is on par with any driver out there, and he will pay double what the favorites will.

Bad Bets

Chase Elliott (12/1)

Elliott has shown plenty of speed at the restrictor-plate tracks, and he actually won a qualifying race at Daytona during Speedweeks. That being said, he has struggled to make it to the finish in many of his plate races, finishing 30th or worse in four of his 10 starts and finishing off the lead lap six times. He is overvalued for a driver who has never won a plate race and is still looking for consistency.

Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)

You might see 20/1 odds for one of the best drivers in the series and think you are getting a steal, but don’t fall for the trap. As great as the defending series champ runs at almost every track on the schedule, the restrictor-plate tracks have been his Achilles’ heel. Truex has finished outside the top 10 in the last nine plate races, leading just nine total laps and finishing outside the top 25 five times in that span.

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2018 Overton’s 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Overton’s 400

2018 Overton’s 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Top Sleeper Bets for the Overton’s 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes a stop at Chicagoland Speedway this weekend. Sunday’s Overton’s 400 is the sixth race of the year at a 1.5-mile track, and if history has taught us anything, it is that there typically aren’t too many surprise winners at mile-and-a-half tracks like Chicagoland.

While you may not want to go crazy betting on longshots for Sunday’s race, that doesn’t mean you can’t find some great value bets. Yes, the 1.5-mile ovals tend to favor big names, but they also favor all the drivers who compete for the top teams. You can usually find appealing value bets among the teammates of the favorites, and Sunday’s race is no exception.

Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have been the two drivers to beat at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, but both drivers have three teammates who have the same equipment and access to their setup information. Their teammates also have much longer odds to win, which would mean more money in your bank account if they come through.

Check out all my top sleeper bets for Sunday’s Overton’s 400 at Chicagoland Speedway.

2018 Overton’s 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Overton’s 400

Top Sleepers

Clint Bowyer (20/1) 

His record at Chicagoland doesn’t jump off the page, but have you seen what Bowyer has been up to this year? He’s already won multiple races, and he runs inside the top 10 just about every week. Top to bottom, Stewart-Haas Racing has been the best organization this year, and that speed has really shown through at the 1.5-mile tracks like Chicagoland. It’s really just about value with Bowyer, and being able to back a borderline top-five driver at 20/1 odds is a pretty good value.

Erik Jones (20/1)

He is still looking for a Cup Series win, but Jones has been at his best at the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He has finished 11th or better in four of his five starts, leading 64 laps at Texas. Don’t forget that the powerhouse teams tend to dominate at mile-and-a-half ovals like Chicagoland, s driving for a premier team like Joe Gibbs Racing only bolsters his chances. The sophomore could break through and reach victory lane this weekend and deliver a sizeable payout in the process.

Chase Elliott (25/1)

The best value on the board this weekend is easily Elliott. While the Chevrolet teams have been a little down on speed at the 1.5-mile tracks early in the year, he has still finished 12th or better in four of the five races. More importantly, he has been excellent at Chicagoland. He won his first XFINITY start at the track, and Elliott has finished third and second, respectively, in two Cup Series starts here, leading more than 40 laps in both. After leading laps and nearly winning in both of his Cup starts at Chicagoland, I’d bet aggressively on Elliott this weekend.

Jamie McMurray (100/1)

I know he doesn’t win a lot, but at 100/1, McMurray is being placed alongside drivers who have never won at the Cup level and guys with mediocre equipment. He has a solid resume at Chicagoland, including three finishes of 11th or better in his last four starts. Yes, he has been hit or miss at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, but his third-place run at Texas and sixth-place effort at Charlotte showcase his upside. If I am taking a flier on a serious longshot, I’m going to roll the dice on McMurray. He’s really a no-brainer among the drivers getting similar odds.

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2018 Overton’s 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Overton’s 400

2018 Overton’s 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Overton’s 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Chicagoland Speedway for the Overton’s 400. Sunday’s race will be the sixth of 2018 at a 1.5-mile oval, but after hosting the first race of the playoffs for the last several seasons, teams will have to deal with the hot temperatures of the summer this time around.

Despite the change of date, don’t expect a changing of the guard. Of all the track types on the schedule, 1.5-mile ovals like Chicagoland tend to be the most predictable. The importance of horsepower and downforce usually favors the big names from big teams, and this year has been no exception.

Check out all my top bets for Sunday’s Overton’s 400 at Chicagoland, along with a couple of big names that I’ll be avoiding.

2018 Overton’s 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Overton’s 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (9/4)

Throw out a cut tire at Charlotte, and Harvick has been unstoppable at the 1.5-mile tracks this year. He has three wins and a second-place finish in the other four races, leading at least 79 laps in all four of those. In fact, Harvick has led more laps than any other driver in the five races at mile-and-a-half ovals despite essentially missing the Charlotte race because of the early incident. Harvick led a bunch of laps and finished in the Top 5 at Chicagoland last year, and he has been even faster in 2018. If you like safe money, back Harvick Sunday.

Kyle Busch (7/2)

Busch has been the second-best performer at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and the gap between himself and whoever you want to put at No. 3 is huge. He is the only driver who has cracked the top 10 in all five races at 1.5-mile ovals, and he has two wins and has led the second-most laps. Busch has also been a force at Chicagoland, leading more than 20 laps in the last five races here. He is a great alternative bet to Kevin Harvick.

Denny Hamlin (12/1)

He can be mistake-prone, but Hamlin is usually a top-five driver when he keeps his nose clean. He also happens to be excellent at Chicagoland. Hamlin has finished sixth or better in his last four starts here, winning the 2015 race. He has three top-five finishes in the five races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, so there is no reason he can’t exploit one of his better tracks. If you want to shoot for a little more profit, Hamlin is a nice bet.

Brad Keselowski (15/1)

Keselowski has been lurking at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, finishing sixth or better in three of the five races and leading more than 40 laps twice. He also has an excellent track record at Chicagoland. Keselowski has seven straight top-10s at the track, and he has a pair of wins during that span. Plus, there is decent room for profit at these odds.

Bad Bets

Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)

It’s easy to make an argument for Truex. He has won back-to-back races at Chicagoland, and his four top-five finishes at 1.5-mile tracks this year are tied for the most in the series. That being said, he has led just 23 total laps in the five races at mile-and-a-half ovals, leading no more than 13 in a single race. He’s been fast, but he hasn’t been on the same level as Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. For essentially the same odds, I’d much rather have Harvick and Busch.

Kyle Larson (7/1)

All season, Larson has been the only Chevrolet driver who has been able to keep up with the Ford and Toyota teams at the 1.5-milers, and he has three top-10s in four starts at Chicagoland. However, he has never won a Cup race at a mile-and-a-half track, and he has led just 22 laps at Chicagoland overall, including zero in each of the last two races here. I think Larson will challenge for a top-five Sunday, but I don’t think he will win. There are multiple options that will pay more for a win that I think have a better shot of reaching victory lane.

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2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to action this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. The 12-turn, 2.52-mile track will host Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, the first road course event of the 2018 season.

With elevation changes, twisting combination turns and hard braking zones, Sonoma might be the most technically demanding track on the schedule, and it should be no surprise that a select group of drivers tend to excel at road courses like Sonoma.

It should also be no surprise that the top drivers in the series tend be among those drivers that dominate at road courses, and championship frontrunners Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are all listed as co-favorites this weekend. Check out all my top betting options for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma.

2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (4/1)

Busch can make a strong claim to being the top road course driver in the series today. His four wins are the most among active drivers, and he has won twice at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen. He has also finished seventh or better in each of the last six road course events, leading laps in all of those races. Busch could add to his road course win total Sunday.

Kevin Harvick (4/1)

He has been the best driver so far this season, and he also happens to be the defending winner of this weekend’s race. In fact, Harvick has finished sixth or better in three of his four starts at Sonoma with Stewart-Haas Racing, leading more than 20 laps in two of those four starts. Don’t expect the most dominant driver in the series to slow down this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)

Truex delivered a dominating win at Sonoma back in 2013, and he was arguably the best driver at the road courses last year. He led the most laps here, but an engine issue denied him a potential win. Truex also led the most laps at Watkins Glen later in the year, and this time, he sealed the deal and went to victory lane. Look for him to be a major player for the win again Sunday.

Kurt Busch (8/1)

If you don’t want to back one of the three co-favorites Sunday, Busch offers you a little more room for profit and has an excellent road course resume. He actually leads all drivers with eight top-10s in the last 10 road course race, and he has been at his best at Sonoma. His 5.6 average finish over the last seven races here is the best of any driver, and his 136 laps led in that span are also the most. Busch is a former winner at Sonoma, and a return trip to victory lane isn’t out of the question.

Denny Hamlin (10/1)

The best value among the frontrunners this weekend is easily Hamlin. He has been on an absolute tear at the road courses, finishing fourth or better in each of the last four road course races. Hamlin has led double-digit laps in three of those events, winning at Watkins Glen and coming within one turn of winning at Sonoma two years ago. Don’t hesitate to back Hamlin aggressively.

Bad Bets

Joey Logano (10/1)

Logano reeled off four straight top-five finishes at the road courses from 2015 to 2016, picking up a win at Watkins Glen. However, he finished outside the top 10 in both road course events last year, and he hasn’t led many laps at road courses overall. The other drivers getting similar odds this weekend all have more impressive resumes, and I’d rather have any of them ahead of Logano. He is a little overvalued.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Championship Value Bets and Sleepers

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Championship Value Bets and Sleepers: We are heading into an off weekend for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, but while the drivers and team gear up for the summer stretch, it is time to look ahead to the playoffs and check out some potential value bets and sleepers for the 2018 Cup Series championship.

NASCAR’s constant tweaks to the playoff format and point system have added more variability to the mix in recent years, and while Martin Truex Jr. capped a dominant season with a championship last year, it is no longer a guarantee that the best driver for the course of the year is going to walk away with the title.

One bad finish by a top driver or one surprise win by someone unexpected can completely alter the championship picture, but the closer we get to the start of the playoffs, the tighter the odds are going to become for the legitimate title contenders. The time to take a chance on a sleeper bet or two is now, so here is a closer look at some of my top options for the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series crown.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Championship Value Bets and Sleepers

Value Bets 

Joey Logano (18/1) 

No, he hasn’t shown consistent, elite speed, but these are still juicy odds on one of the steadiest performers in the series. Logano has 12 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races, and more importantly, he also has a win that locks him into the playoffs. At the very least, Logano has a solid chance to work his way to the championship race on points because of his week-to-week consistency, and he has shown in the past he is capable of catching fire and reeling off wins. There is plenty of value here.

Ryan Blaney (22/1)

In many ways, Blaney has been the opposite of his teammate that I just touched on, Joey Logano. He hasn’t been able to get the finishes he deserves in a lot of the races this year, but he has shown tons of speed overall. In fact, Blaney has led the third-most laps of any driver, and he has been leading a lot of laps on all different types of tracks. If he ever puts it all together, Blaney could start piling up playoff points in a hurry, and he could advance his way through the postseason with a few wins, as well. I’d jump on these odds now because they won’t be nearly as friendly if he gets a win or two under his belt.

Clint Bowyer (35/1)

The absolute best value bet on the board right now is Bowyer. In fact, I can’t believe he is still available at 35/1. He already has two wins under his belt in 2018, giving him 10 playoff points that will count toward the postseason. He’s also been consistent, posting a 10.7 average finish through the first 15 races. Between his steady results and his playoff points, Bowyer is in a great spot to advance through the first couple of rounds of the postseason with ease. Meanwhile, one of his wins this year came in dominating fashion at Martinsville, a track we will visit again in the third round of the playoffs. Another win there could punch his ticket to the title race at Homestead. Bowyer is an absolute steal at these odds.

Sleeper Special

Erik Jones (50/1)

After a solid start to the year, Jones has hit a rough patch, but a lot of it has been bad luck and mechanical issues that are out of his control. He’s still been flashing top-10 speed on a routine basis, and perhaps most importantly, he tends to be at his best at the 1.5-mile ovals that make up a big chunk of the playoff schedule. It is also important to keep in mind that Jones is in just his second year in the Cup Series and his first with Joe Gibbs Racing. He is just scratching the surface off his potential and should only get better as the year goes on. His luck can’t get any worse than it has been in recent weeks, and I think his odds to win the title are only going to improve. Take a shot on him now while the payout is potentially huge.

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2018 American Ethanol E15 250 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers American Ethanol E15 250

2018 American Ethanol E15 250 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers American Ethanol E15 250: While the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series takes the weekend off, the XFINITY Series drivers will take center stage Sunday at Iowa Speedway. The 7/8-mile short track will host Sunday’s American Ethanol E15 250, and it is one of the few tracks that is unique to the XFINITY Series schedule.

Earlier this year, NASCAR ran a four-race Dash 4 Cash series that made Cup drivers ineligible to compete in those select XFINITY events. Cup drivers aren’t banned from Sunday’s race, but they are taking advantage of the off weekend, making Sunday’s race the most wide-open race since those Dash 4 Cash events.

With that in mind, there are a lot of quality betting options this weekend, and this is also one of the better opportunities to try to hit it big with a sleeper bet. Check out all my top bets for Sunday’s American Ethanol E15 250 at Iowa Speedway.

2018 American Ethanol E15 250 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers American Ethanol E15 250

The Favorites

Christopher Bell (11/5)

No matter the track and no matter how loaded the field, Bell has been able to run up front this season, and he already has a strong history at Iowa. Bell was cruising toward a win here last year, leading a race-high 152 laps before being taken out in somebody else’s wreck. He also led the most laps in a win at Richmond a few weeks back, so he has shown he can win at a short track. There are no Cup Series drivers in the field this weekend, so I wouldn’t rule out another dominating performance out of Bell.

Justin Allgaier (7/1)

With the Cup drivers out of the picture, Allgaier immediately jumps to the top of the list of potential winners. In the four races this year when Cup drivers were ineligible, he led more than 30 laps three times and picked up a win at Dover. He’s also led more laps than any other series regular this season. Throw in the fact that Allgaier led more than 100 laps at Iowa last July, and he is one of your safest bets Sunday.

Elliott Sadler (8/1)

I’m not guaranteeing a win from Sadler, but you are pretty much guaranteed to be in the hunt if you bet on him this weekend.  He’s been the model of consistency all season, and he has been equally dependable at Iowa. In 13 races this year, Sadler has 12 top-10s and nine top-five finishes. Meanwhile, he has 13 top-10s in 14 career starts at Iowa, including a win. Sadler led at least 30 laps in three of the four Dash 4 Cash events earlier this year, so he only gets better when the Cup drivers stay away.

Value Bets

Daniel Hemric (9/1)

The best value on the board this weekend has to be Hemric. He has finished third or better five times this year, cracking the top 10 in nine of the 13 races overall. More importantly, no driver enjoyed a bigger boost in performance in the Dash 4 Cash races. Hemric led double-digit laps in all four of those events, leading 30-plus laps three times. With a weaker field again this weekend, Hemric should be back at the front at Iowa.

John Hunter Nemechek (13/1) 

Since finishing fourth in his XFINITY Series debut earlier this year, Nemechek has been good but not great in his subsequent starts. That being said, he is driving the Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 this weekend, so he will have great equipment to work with. He has also shown some short track muscle in the past. Nemechek led more than 30 laps in an XFINITY race at Richmond earlier this year, and his last two Truck Series wins have come at short tracks, including a win at Iowa in 2017. With enough upside and a decent profit margin, he’s worth considering.

Brandon Jones (20/1)

Jones has benefited from his move to Joe Gibbs Racing, and in a race with no Cup regulars, his superior equipment could win out. After all, he led more than 100 laps in a Dash 4 Cash race at Bristol earlier this year, so he has shown he can run up front in weaker fields. It’s also worth noting that JGR cars dominated in both races at Iowa last year. There’s potential for a decent payout here.

The Sleeper

Ryan Truex (40/1)

Truex has been a steady performer this year, cracking the top 15 in 12 of the 13 races so far. He’s also been trending up, finishing 11th or better in the last four races. Without any Cup regulars in the field, Truex is poised to make the leap from Top 10 driver to potential Top 5 option. These are great odds for a reliable driver with momentum on his side.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Championship Favorites and Bad Bets

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Championship Favorites and Bad Bets: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is coming up on an off weekend, and before the action resumes in a couple of weekends at Sonoma Raceway, it’s time to revisit the championship hopefuls.

We are already more than halfway through the regular season, and a hierarchy has definitely been established among the top drivers. Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are leading the way with Martin Truex Jr. not far behind. After that, things get a little cloudier, but the longer you wait to place a bet, the worse odd you are likely to find.

With that in mind, here is a closer look at the drivers that I recommend betting on to win the 2018 Cup Series title and a couple of favorites who I wouldn’t waste your money on.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Championship Favorites and Bad Bets

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (5/2)

He keeps piling up playoff points and wins, and Harvick seems destined to enter the postseason with either the most or second-most playoff points of any driver. Couple that with the fact that he seems to bring the fastest car to the track almost every week, and it is going to take a lot of bad luck for Harvick not to be part of the Championship 4. He is easily the safest bet on the board.

Kyle Busch (3/1)

His 25 playoff points are currently just one behind Kevin Harvick for the most in the series, but Busch is also atop the regular season standings, which would give him another 15 playoff points. Busch is also nipping at Harvick’s heels in just about every other important statistical category, and he has the week-to-week speed to advance in the playoffs both with his consistency and his ability to win races. Busch also looks like a lock to race for the title at Homestead.

Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)

The defending series champ hasn’t been as dominant in 2018, but he does have two wins and the third-most playoff points. Truex also ranks third with nine top-15s, showing the elite speed each and every week that you look for in a smart championship bet. Truex isn’t quite the lock to reach the title race that he was last year at this time, but he is still the only driver consistently running with Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski.

Brad Keselowski (9/1)

There is definitely a gap between Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. and everybody else, but if I am going to look for a little profit margin without gambling on a longshot, I like Keselowski as a value bet. He doesn’t have a win yet, but he sits fourth in the standings and has four playoff points through stage wins. Keselowski is also one of the most versatile drivers in the series, and he is capable of contending on any type of track. This all-around ability helped him reach the title race last year, and should serve him well again in 2018.

Bad Bets

Kyle Larson (7/1)

Larson is one of the most talented drivers in NASCAR today, but he is currently getting similar odds to drivers with multiple wins, and Larson has yet to visit victory lane in 2018. Yes, he has been able to hang with the likes of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr., but you can tell that Larson has to push the car to the limit every single lap just to keep pace because the Chevy teams are a little behind on speed. Last year, he entered the playoffs with a ton of playoff points and still couldn’t reach the championship race. It’s only going to be harder for him this time around. There isn’t enough room for profit to warrant the gamble.

Chase Elliott (14/1)

Last year, Elliott really hit his stride in the final months of the season, and while I wouldn’t rule out a similar surge in 2018, he simply hasn’t shown the type of speed to justify these odds. We are 15 races into the year, and Elliott has just three top-five finishes and has only led eight laps. Even if Elliott can close the gap in speed with the Ford and Toyota teams by playoff time, he will still be fighting an uphill battle because of all the playoff points the competition has been amassing in the meantime.

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2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400

2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks and Predictions – Top Sleeper Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway this weekend, and while the power teams in the sport have enjoyed plenty of success here, the two-mile, D-shaped oval has also been known to produce the occasional upset.

One of the distinctive features of MIS is its wide racing surface, and since drivers have plenty of room to work, there tends to be longer green flag stretches. This can cause pit strategy to come into play with teams often short pitting or trying to stretch fuel. If cautions fall at the right time, some surprise contenders for the win could emerge.

With that in mind, here is a closer look at some of my favorite value bets and longshots worth taking a chance on for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan. 

2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400

Top Sleepers 

Joey Logano (15/1) 

He won’t win you a ton of money, but Logano has the best profit margin among drivers with an elite resume at Michigan. He has a series-leading nine top-10s in the last 10 starts at the track, and more importantly, he has two wins and has led more laps than any other driver during that span. Compared to some of the drivers with better odds, Logano is a potential steal.

Erik Jones (15/1)

He’s only in his second year in the Cup Series, but Jones has already established himself as one of the better options at the two-mile ovals. He finished 13th in Michigan debut last June, and when he returned to the track in July, he led some laps and finished third. Jones also finished in the Top 10 at Auto Club earlier this year, and he has never finished outside the top 15 at two-mile track at the Cup level.

Aric Almirola (50/1)

He only has one career Cup win under his belt, but I’m still shocked that Almirola is a 50/1 longshot this weekend. He has been the model of consistency all year, piling up 12 top-15 finishes through the first 14 races, including a 12th-place run at Auto Club. At the very least, Almirola is going to be close enough to the front to have a shot at stealing the win with pit strategy, and there are plenty of drivers getting similar odds that struggle to run in the top half of the field.

Jamie McMurray (100/1)

His odds are no doubt impacted by his slow start to 2018, but McMurray has been showing signs of life in recent weeks, and Michigan has become one of his better tracks. He has finished 16th or better in the last eight races here, and he has four straight top-10s. Keep in mind that McMurray’s teammate, Kyle Larson, has won the last three races at MIS, and McMurray has access to the same setup. Yes, Larson is a more talented driver, but McMurray will deliver 20 times the payout if he can pull off the upset.

Paul Menard (200/1)

If I’m throwing a little money at a true longshot, it is definitely going to be Menard. He has struggled at Michigan the last couple of years, but I think that had a lot to do with how far behind Richard Childress Racing has slipped compared to the other top teams. From 2013 to 2015, he reeled off six straight top-15 finishes at Michigan, finishing fourth on three separate occasions. Joining Wood Brothers Racing this offseason seems to have revitalized Menard, and he is back to running in the top 15 routinely and is flashing top-10 upside. Heading to what used to be one of his best tracks, I think he could be a surprise contender.

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2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400

2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls on this weekend with the first of two visits to Michigan International Speedway. The D-shaped oval is known for its high speeds and wide racing surface, and it is one of just two tracks on the schedule with a two-mile layout, joining Auto Club Speedway.

Given its long straightaways and wide surface, it is no surprise that having as much horsepower as possible is a huge advantage at Michigan. It is also not surprising that the top teams in NASCAR tend to have the most muscle under the hood, and big names tend to rule at MIS.

With that in mind, you will probably want to concentrate a majority of your betting dollars on the household names this weekend, and here is a closer look at the favorites I’ll be backing in Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan.

2018 FireKeepers Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (5/2)

Week in and week out, Harvick brings one of the fastest cars to the track. He leads the series with five wins and has led the most laps of any driver, and there is no reason to expect that to change at Michigan. Over the last 10 races here, he leads all drivers with seven top-five finishes, and he has finished second five times during that stretch. Your best bet at winning money Sunday is once again Harvick.

Kyle Busch (9/2)

He’s got four wins under his belt already, and Busch’s excellent 2018 season shouldn’t slow down this weekend at Michigan. He led double-digit laps in both races at the track last year, and he led 62 laps and finished third at Auto Club back in March. For his career, Busch owns four total Cup wins at two-mile tracks.

Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)

Truex has been the king of the high-horsepower tracks this year, leading the most laps at winning at Auto Club in March and winning at Pocono last weekend. He was also excellent at Michigan last year, finishing sixth and second and leading 50-plus lap in both events. Considering how dominant he was at Auto Club, I think it bodes well for his chances at taking down the other two-mile track on the schedule this weekend.

Kyle Larson (5/1)

He is still looking for a win in 2018, but Larson has been the best in the business at the two-mile tracks for the last couple of seasons. He has finished third or better in each of the last six races two-mile ovals, winning the last three races at Michigan and finishing second at Auto Club back in March. A Michigan four-peat could be on tap for Larson Sunday, and a decent payout could be on tap for those who back him.

Bad Bets

Chase Elliott (15/1)

His record at Michigan speaks for itself, and in four career Cup starts here, Elliott has a 3.5 average finish and three second-place efforts. However, the Chevrolet teams just haven’t shown elite speed this year, and while it seems they are trending in the right direction, Kyle Larson appears to be the only Chevy driver who can hang with Ford and Toyota juggernauts. Throw in the fact that Elliott finished a disappointing 16th at Michigan’s sister track, Auto Club Speedway, back in March, and I think he is a little overvalued this weekend.

Ryan Blaney (12/1)

I know Blaney has been fast and has led plenty of laps this year, but he still hasn’t won a race and hasn’t been particularly consistent at Michigan. Earlier this year, he ran eighth at Auto Club, the sister track to Michigan, so I think he is more of a top-10 option rather than a potential winner. I’d rather have his teammate, Brad Keselowski, for the same odds or his other teammate, Joey Logano at 15/1.

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