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Author Archives | Brian Polking

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Free Pick

2016-Free-College-Football-Picks2016 College Football Picks and Predictions – Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Free Pick: 2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Free PickWhile the Big 12 doesn’t have an official conference championship game, it just so happens to work out that the Bedlam rivalry between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma this weekend will also decide the conference champ. The winner between the 10th-ranked Cowboys and ninth-ranked Sooners will lock up a spot in a major bowl game, along with earning bragging rights over their in-state rival.

Both teams took similar paths to reach this point. The Sooners started 1-2 after losses to Houston and Ohio State, but thanks to stellar play from quarterback Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma has surged back to life, dominating a majority of their opponents with a potent offense. The Cowboys started 2-2, and while a botched call by the refs resulted in a loss to Central Michigan, the fact that the game was even close was an indictment on the Oklahoma State’s early play. Both teams are playing their best heading into this showdown, and the Sooners are 11-point favorites at home.

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma Free Pick

Oklahoma State Wins If:

Led by quarterback Mason Rudolph, the Cowboys boast the sixth-ranked passing attack and 14th-ranked scoring offense, but getting into a shootout with the Sooners isn’t the best approach. The Sooners might have the best offense in the country, and trying to match them score for score probably isn’t going to end well for Oklahoma State. Instead, the Cowboys need to focus on playing mistake-free football on both sides of the ball, avoiding quick three-and-outs on offense and getting off the field when they force the Sooners into third down situations. The Cowboys have been excellent in close games this year, so if they can keep the score reasonable heading into the fourth quarter, they are more than capable of pulling it out.

Oklahoma Wins If:

It seems like every game in the Big 12 is a high-scoring shootout, and the Sooners and their second-ranked scoring attack are built tough to beat when they are firing on all cylinders. From Mayfield under center to explosive receiver Dede Westbrook, the Sooners have offensive firepower to spare. As long as Oklahoma doesn’t torpedo its own possessions with turnovers and penalties, they should score early and often. More importantly, the Sooners have more weapons than the Cowboys, so Oklahoma is going to be in good shape if they can turn this game into an up-tempo shootout. The Sooners don’t have to be flawless defensively, but they do have to get off the field when the opportunities arise. If they make a few defensive stops here and there, Mayfield and company will do the rest.

Bottom Line:

Both of these teams can put points on the board in bunches, but ironically, it could be the Oklahoma defense that ends up being the difference in this game. As impressive as Mayfield and the Sooners have been on offense down the stretch, the Oklahoma defense has been keeping opponents in check, which is no easy task in the Big 12. The Sooners have allowed 28 points or less in five of their last six games, and if they can keep the Cowboys anywhere close to that mark this weekend, they are going to come out on top. In the end, I expect the superior firepower of the Oklahoma offense and the stingier Oklahoma defense to allow them to pull away from the Cowboys.

Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners (-11) Cover the Spread

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2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Free Pick

2016-Free-College-Football-Picks2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Free Pick: If you look at the rankings and ask most experts, the two best teams in the Big Ten are Ohio State and Michigan. However, neither team will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game this weekend. Instead, the sixth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers and seventh-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions will face off for the conference crown. The Badgers will be playing in the title game for the fourth time since it was created in 2011, and on the flip side, Penn State’s appearance completes an impressive reclamation project for a program that was decimated by sanctions just a few years ago.

The game could also have much larger implications, and the winner could end up forcing their way in the College Football Playoff. Needless to say, this game could be the most impactful on the national title picture, and it could also be the most competitive of the Power Five conference title games. The Badgers are favored in this one, but they are only favored by 2.5 points.

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship Game Free Pick

Penn State Wins If:

The running game will prove crucial for Penn State on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Nittany Lions need to establish running back Saquon Barkley early. Not only can Barkley help Penn State control the clock, but when he is effective, it opens up the play-action pass for quarterback Trace McSorley, who has proven he can hit big plays when they present themselves. Defensively, Penn State has to shut down Wisconsin running back Corey Clement and force the Badgers to beat them through the air. The Badgers have struggled to throw the ball all year, and if Wisconsin has to throw to win Saturday night, Penn State’s pass rush is going to be able to wreak havoc. If Penn State controls the line of scrimmage, it will control this game.

Wisconsin Wins If:

If Wisconsin is going to win this game, it needs a dominant performance from a defense that is allowing the third-fewest points per game in the country. The Badgers need to focus on shutting down Barkley, forcing McSorley into obvious passing down and distances. When the Badgers have the ball, they have to get Clement going early and establish a steady run game from start to finish. Wisconsin has had a shaky passing game all year, and the Badgers may be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook in this one. If they fall behind early, they don’t have the weapons to play catch-up or keep pace in a high-scoring game. Wisconsin needs to make this a grinding, low-scoring affair. If they do, the Badgers have the defense to come out on top.

Bottom Line:

Wisconsin doesn’t have a bad loss on its resume, losing one score games to both Ohio State and Michigan. However, Penn State has been a different team since upsetting Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have scored at least 39 points in every game since knocking off the Buckeyes, and McSorley in particular has stepped up his game. The Badgers’ defense is no joke, but their offense can be downright nonexistent at times. The Nittany Lions defensive front is one of the better units in the country, and they aren’t going to let Clement win this game by himself. I trust a Penn State offense firing on all cylinders to score some points more than I trust a pedestrian Wisconsin offense that could be without its best quarterback.  I don’t think it will a blowout, but the Nittany Lions simply have more ways to score in what will otherwise be a battle of physical defenses.

Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5) Cover the Spread

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2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: ACC Championship Game Free Pick

2016-Free-College-Football-Picks2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: ACC Championship Game Free Pick: A pair of Top 25 teams will face off when the 23rd-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies take on the third-ranked Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies will be trying to steal a spot in the major bowl game by upsetting the Tigers, but Clemson will be trying to lock up a return trip to the College Football Playoff after finishing as the runner-up last season.

The game will feature two of the conference’s best defenses, and it will also feature two of the ACC’s best quarterbacks. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans are both dual-threat weapons, and Watson could even make a late push for the Heisman Trophy with a big performance. Overall, the Tigers have an edge on the offensive side of the ball, ranking fifth in the country and passing and 16th in scoring. The Tigers are also a 10.5-point favorite over the Hokies.

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: ACC Championship Game Free Pick

Virginia Tech Wins If:

As dynamic as Evans can be at quarterback, the Hokies need to control the clock and the pace of the game if they want to win this one. Outscoring Clemson in a shootout is tough to do, but the Hokies could make things interesting if they keep the game lower scoring and win time of possession. Defensively, Virginia Tech has to take advantage of a Clemson offense that has been plagued by turnovers. If Virginia Tech wins the turnover battle and wins time of possession, Evans could make enough plays to steal a win against a Clemson team that has been in a lot of close games this season.

Clemson Wins If:

With Watson under center, Wayne Gallman in the backfield in the backfield and Mike Williams leading a loaded receiving corps, the Clemson offense has been borderline unstoppable at times. In fact, Clemson’s offense is often its own worst enemy. Turnovers have been an issue for Watson and company all year, killing drives and giving opponents easy scoring chances. If the Tigers can avoid sloppy play on offense, they are going to put points on the board and make it very difficult for the Hokies to keep pace. Defensively, Clemson needs to keep tabs on Evans, forcing him to extend drives from the pocket instead of with his legs. If the Tigers make this a battle of offenses, they have too many weapons to lose.

Bottom Line:

Clemson has played down to a number of opponents this year, and when they fell to Pittsburgh, it seemed like the upset was only a matter of time. That being said, this is still the same team that beat Louisville and beat Florida State and Auburn on the road. Virginia Tech’s resume doesn’t even compare when it comes to quality wins, and the Hokies’ losses are even more egregious than Clemson’s one-point defeat to the Panthers. The Tigers appeared plenty focused in their 56-7 dismantling of in-state rival South Carolina, and when they play their best, the Tigers are as good as any team in the country. With the ACC title and a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line, I expect Clemson to bring its “A” game, and Clemson’s best is going to be way too much for Virginia Tech to handle.

Prediction: Clemson Tigers (-10.5) Cover the Spread

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2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: SEC Championship Game Free Pick

2016-Free-College-Football-Picks2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: SEC Championship Game Free Pick: Normally among the most anticipated conference title games, this year’s SEC Championship Game is lacking a little luster. The top-ranked and undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide take on the 15th-ranked Florida Gators, but after such a dominant regular season, the Crimson Tide have probably secured a spot in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome. Meanwhile, the Gators have no chance of reaching the playoffs, even if they spring the upset.

The spread reflects the one-sided nature of this matchup, and the Crimson Tide roll into the conference title game as hefty 24-point favorites.

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: SEC Championship Game Free Pick

Florida Wins If:

The best-case scenario for the Gators is that Nick Saban and company accidentally end up at the wrong stadium, resulting in a forfeit. Jokes aside, it is going to take a lot to go right for Florida to have a chance in this one. The Gators do have one of the top defenses in the country, and a special effort on that side of the ball will go a long way to fueling an upset. Saban has been known to play things a little conservative in big games, so if Florida can keep the Crimson Tide off the scoreboard early, Alabama could revert to a run-heavy attack. Offensively, the Gators just have to hope they get a couple of unexpected big plays, especially early. The Gators are not built to come from behind, and things are going to spiral in a hurry if Florida ends up in a must-throw situation.

 

Alabama Wins If:

 

Alabama goes into this game as the better team, and with a focused effort on both sides of the ball, the Crimson Tide should leave with the win. There is really no reason the Gators should be able to move the ball on Alabama’s defense, so as long as the Crimson Tide play a clean game on offense and special teams, they should be in great shape. Giving Florida short fields via turnovers is the only way the Gators should be in this game. If Alabama takes care of the ball, they are going to take care of business.

Bottom Line:

On paper, this is a matchup between two of the best defenses in the country. Alabama owns the top-ranked scoring defense, and the Gators also rank in the top five. However, the Crimson Tide also rank in the top 20 in scoring offense, but the Florida ranks outside the top 100. Common opponents don’t always tell the whole story, but Florida lost to Tennessee and Arkansas, and the Crimson Tide throttled both those teams. With most times, you could be concerned by a lack of focus since Alabama is likely playing for a national title no matter what happens against the Gators. However, that fear doesn’t exist with a Saban-coached team. Alabama is the better team on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, and they are going to show it. Florida will be lucky to find the end zone, and the Crimson Tide will roll, pun intended.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide (-24) Cover the Spread

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2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Top Matchups and Free Picks for Week 13

2016-Free-College-Football-Picks2016 College Football Picks and Predictions – Top Matchups and Free Picks for Week 13: The 2016 College Football Season is in its home stretch, and most divisions and conferences will be decided in the next couple of weeks. Week 13 has added drama because it is rivalry week, and some of the most storied rivalries in the sport’s history will be renewed this weekend. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the top matchups for a loaded Week 13 slate.

2016 College Football Picks and Predictions: Top Matchups and Free Picks for Week 13

No. 5 Washington Huskies at No. 23 Washington State Cougars

A spot in the Pac-12 title game is up for grabs when Washington and Washington State meet in the annual Apple Cup. The Huskies have been in the conversation for the College Football Playoff for much of the year, but the Cougars can squash those dreams and move closer to an eventual Rose Bowl berth by spring the upset

.Yes, these teams boast identical conference records, but while the Cougars have been squeaking by most of their opponents, the Huskies have been blowing a lot of the same teams off the field. This is still the same Cougars team that lost to Eastern Washington early in the year and was run over by Colorado last weekend. The Huskies are the better team, and they will eventually grab the upper hand in this game.

Prediction: Washington Huskies (-6) Cover the Spread

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

As if this rivalry wasn’t big enough already, the winner of this one will likely lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes are at home and haven’t lost to the Wolverines since Urban Meyer become the head coach, but it is safe to say that this is the best Michigan team the Meyer led Buckeyes will have faced.

The Wolverines may have to use their backup quarterback, and regardless of who is under center for Michigan, J.T. Barrett gives the Buckeyes an edge at the position. That being said, Ohio State has struggled all year with teams that can outmuscle them in the trenches.

From the loss to Penn State to close calls against Wisconsin and Michigan State, the young offensive line of the Buckeyes is still a work in progress, and the offense becomes much less dynamic when the line is struggling. Enter the Wolverines, who have one of the best defensive fronts in the country. Expect a close, low-scoring affair with the Wolverines covering, if not pulling the outright upset.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines (+6.5) Cover the Spread

No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

Win or lose, the Crimson Tide will be playing in the SEC title game, but that doesn’t mean the Tigers won’t be trying to knock out their rival. The Iron Bowl is one of the most heated rivalries in college football, and you only have to look back a couple of years to be reminded that anything can happen in a rivalry game.

Yes, Alabama is clearly the better team on both sides of the ball, but Nick Saban can play things a little conservative in big games. Remember that 10-0 win over an inferior LSU team a few weeks back. Meanwhile, Auburn has had a way of forcing teams to play ugly, including in low-scoring games against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU.

I don’t expect any miracles this time around for the Tigers, but I do see them hanging around and keeping things from getting completely out of hand. Auburn hasn’t lost by more than 13 all year, and I like the trend to continue.

Prediction: Auburn Tigers (+17) Cover the Spread                                

No. 22 Utah Utes at No. 9 Colorado Buffaloes

Both teams are ranked high in the polls, but make no mistake about it, this game is far more important for Colorado. With a win the Buffaloes will earn a spot in the Pac-12 title game, putting themselves in position to make the Rose Bowl, if not sneak into the College Football Playoff.

Quarterback Sefo Liufau and running back Phillip Lindsay form an impressive offensive combination for Colorado, and the Buffaloes have been stout on the defensive side of the ball at times, as well. Granted, Utah has looked as dominant at times, but it is fair to question the Utes’ consistency.

Colorado’s two losses have come on the road to Michigan and USC, but Utah added an unforgivable loss to Oregon last weekend to a resume that already featured a questionable loss to California. Playing at home, I like the Buffaloes to take command and pull away.

Prediction: Colorado Buffaloes (-10.5) Cover the Spread

No. 15 Florida Gators at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles

There are no conference implications at stake, but there will still be plenty of intensity between these in-state rivals. The Seminoles have failed to get over the hump in big games this year, but the Gators have been the beneficiaries of a schedule that didn’t include a majority of the SEC West powers.

Florida’s defense is legit, but at times, it seems like the Gators may never score a point. On the year, they rank 92nd in points for while allowing the third-fewest points per game. Florida’s style of play is good news for a Florida State team that has struggled against teams with high-powered offenses.

In this matchup, the Seminoles will have the best offensive player on the field in running back Dalvin Cook. Meanwhile, Florida’s worst loss this year came against an Arkansas team that established the run early and never let up. I expect FSU to ride Cook early and often and put enough points up to get by the Gators.

Prediction: Florida State Seminoles (-6.5) Cover the Spread

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2016 AAA Texas 500 400 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites and Contenders

2016-AAA-Texas-500-Odds-Free-Picks-and-Predictions2016 AAA Texas 500 400 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites and Contenders: The Sprint Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for the AAA Texas 500. The track is the fastest 1.5-mile oval on the schedule, and if the high speeds don’t provide enough drama and excitement, the race is also the second race of the Round of Eight in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Three spots are still up for grabs in the championship finale, and over the next two weeks, the four drivers who will compete for this year’s title will be determined. A win this weekend can automatically lock a driver into the championship race, and here is a closer look at the drivers to watch this weekend.

2016 AAA Texas 500 400 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites and Contenders

The Favorites

Fresh off his ninth career win at Martinsville, Jimmie Johnson will try for his seventh career win at Texas this weekend. He has won three of the last four races at the track, and he has won the fall race in each of the last four seasons. Johnson also leads all driver in laps led at Texas, so there is a good chance the six-time champ will be back in victory lane Sunday.

He is going for a season sweep at Texas after winning the spring race, and over the last 10 races here, Kyle Busch leads all drivers with a 5.0 average finish. During the stretch, he hasn’t finished worse than 11th, and he has six finishes of fourth or better, including a pair of wins. Overall, Busch ranks in the top three in laps led and fastest laps run at Texas.

While he hasn’t won at Texas, Martin Truex Jr. has been the best in the business at 1.5-mile tracks all season. He has led by far the most laps of any driver at 1.5-mile ovals, and he led the most laps at Texas in the spring before a bad pit road decision cost him a great shot at the win. Plus, Truex has been pretty good at Texas throughout his career, and his 10.3 average finish in the last 10 races here ranks third in the series.

The Contenders

Believe it or not, Kevin Harvick has never won a Cup Series race at Texas. However, he has reeled off four straight top-10s at the track, finishing third or better three times during the stretch. Harvick has been one of the best drivers at 1.5-mile tracks since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him end his drought in the Lone tar State this Sunday.

While he didn’t win at Texas last fall, Brad Keselowski did lead 312 of the 334 laps before being passed for the lead in the final laps. He now has three top-five finishes in his last four stars here and six top 10s in his last eight starts. After leading so many laps and not winning, you can bet Keselowski will be out to seal the deal.

He is a three-time winner at Texas, and Carl Edwards nearly added to his win total at the track last fall. He started on the pole and led 124 laps, but a pit road penalty knocked him out of contention for the win. He still rallied for a seventh-place finish, and he has now cracked the top 10 in his last four starts here.

Since joining Team Penske, Joey Logano has been a force at Texas. He has cracked the top five in five of his last seven starts at the track, winning the spring race in 2014 and finishing third at the track earlier this season. Logano should be near the front of the field this weekend.

He is still looking for his first Sprint Cup win, but Chase Elliott could get the monkey off his back this weekend. He finished fifth in his track debut in the spring, and he has been solid at 1.5-mile tracks all year, logging five top-10s in nine races. More importantly, Elliott is getting better, combining to lead 182 laps in the last three races at 1.5-mile tracks.

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2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

2016-Xfinity-Series-Odds-Free-Picks-Predictions2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers: After a two-week layoff, the XFINITY Series returns to action this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile track will host Saturday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge, and since the race is a companion event with the Sprint Cup Series race, there are plenty of big names pulling double duty. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the Cup drivers in the field and the top XFINITY regulars set to challenge for the win this weekend at Texas.

2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

The Favorites

He runs well at Texas no matter what series, and Brad Keselowski has logged 11 top-five finishes in his last 12 starts at the track in the XFINITY Series. In fact, he has finished third or better in each of his last five starts here, picking up a pair of wins during the stretch.

In 18 career starts at Texas in the XFINITY Series, Kevin Harvick has piled up 15 top-10s, including eight straight. He also has five career wins at the track, and he finished second in the fall race last season. Harvick is one of the safest bets to be fighting for the win Saturday.

Although he has yet to win at Texas, Austin Dillon has been the model of consistency at the 1.5-mile track. He has a 5.3 average finish in eight career starts at Texas, and he has never finished worse than eighth. Dillon also has five top-five finishes here, including a third-place run last fall.

Despite the stacked field, XFINITY Series regular Erik Jones still has to be considered one of the frontrunners this weekend. After all, his 2.3 average finish at Texas is the best of any driver in the field this weekend. He has cracked the top five in all three of his starts here, winning once and finishing second in the spring race this season.

The Contenders

He has had an inconsistent record at Texas, but Kyle Larson has finished as high as third at the track, and he is one of the most talented drivers in the field this weekend. He is more of a boom-or-bust bet, but Larson’s race-winning upside could be worth the risk.

Few drivers have been running as well as Daniel Suarez over the past couple of months, and he brings a streak of eight straight top-10s into Saturday’s race. He has seven top-five finishes during that same span, including four straight finishes of third or better. Suarez finished sixth at Texas last fall, and he could take another step this weekend.

He has been the model of consistency all year, and Elliott Sadler should be in the hunt again this weekend. He has cracked the top 15 in his last 11 starts at Texas in the XFINITY Series, and he has seven top-10s during the stretch, including five in his last six starts.

He was solid at Texas before leaving the XFINITY Series for a few years, and Justin Allgaier has picked up where he left off with a sixth-place run in the spring race. He now has four top-10s in his last five starts at the track, and he has solid momentum on his side with seven finishes of sixth or better in the 10 races leading up to Saturday’s event.

The Sleepers

It has been a wild year for Matt Tifft, but not even a brain tumor could keep him off the track for long. He will be driving the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 again this weekend, and he has finished in the top 10 in his last four starts. Tifft has the talent and equipment, and he could be a surprise factor in his second start back since undergoing surgery.

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Xfinity 2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Odds
Kyle Larson +225
Kevin Harvick +600
Erik Jones +500
Brad Keselowski +800
Austin Dillon +700
Daniel Suarez +700
Elliott Sadler +1200
Justin Allgaier +1200
Matt Tifft +1500
Ty Dillon +2500
Darrell Wallace Jr +3000
Brendan Gaughan +4000
Field +1500

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2016 XFINITY Chase Predictions: Updated Championship Favorites and Contenders

2016-Xfinity-Series-Odds-Free-Picks-Predictions2016 XFINITY Chase Predictions: Updated Championship Favorites and Contenders: While the Sprint Cup Series visits Talladega Superspeedway this weekend to wrap up the second round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, the XFINITY Series will begin a two-week break before resuming the Round of Eight at Texas Motor Speedway. With a couple of off weeks on tap, it is the perfect time to take a look at how the championship contenders stack up now that the XFINITY Series playoffs are four races in.

2016 XFINITY Chase Predictions: Updated Championship Favorites and Contenders

The Favorites

His luck has been horrible throughout the Chase, but Erik Jones is still alive and in the thick of the title hunt. In fact, he has led the most laps since the playoffs began, leading double-digit laps in all four races, and he nearly won races at Kentucky, Charlotte and Kansas. He still owns the most wins of any XFINITY Series regular this season, and his ability to win at any track at any time keeps him entrenched among the favorites.

He led the point standings for much of the season, and Daniel Suarez has been the most impressive driver since the Chase began. He has finished third or better in all four playoff races, winning at Dover. No other driver has even cracked the top five in all four playoff races, so Suarez’s consistency is on another level right now. He looks like a safe bet to make it to the final four.

He picked up a win at Kentucky to open the Chase, and Elliott Sadler hasn’t slowed down since. He has finished in the top 10 in all four playoff races, logging a 3.0 average finish and cracking the top five three times. Sadler has been the model of consistency all year, leading the series in top-10s finishes, and he looks like a lock to be in the final four at Homestead.

The Contenders

He has flown under the radar most of the year, but Justin Allgaier continues to hang around thanks to solid finishes and an occasional strong run. He has finished in the top 15 in all four playoff races, cracking the top 10 three times and logging one top five. He is also one of three drivers averaging a top-10 finish during the Chase. Allgaier could have a tough time coming out on top in the one-race finale, but he is certainly running well to put himself in the final four and have a puncher’s chance at the title.

Call him the Cinderella story, but Blake Koch is currently in position to make the final race despite driving for a much smaller team than his competitors. He has opened the Chase with four straight top 15s, and he cracked the top 10 in the most recent race at Kansas. Meanwhile, his 11.5 average finish is the fourth-best mark of the eight drivers still eligible for the title. With some of the drivers from bigger teams having trouble, Koch is putting himself in positon to sneak into the final race.

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2016 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

2016-Xfinity-Series-Odds-Free-Picks-Predictions2016 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers: The second round of the XFINITY Series Chase begins this weekend at Kansas Speedway, and while the eight remaining title contenders will be looking for a win to earn an automatic spot in the final round, it won’t come easy. Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300 is a companion event with the Sprint Cup Series, so there are several big names who will be pulling double duty. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the drivers to watch in this weekend’s XFINITY Series event.

2016 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

The Favorites

He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Kyle Busch has is going for this third win in a row at the track and fourth overall. He has finished sixth or better in six straight XFINITY starts at Kansas, posting a 2.8 average finish during that stretch. Busch leads all drivers in wins in 2016, and he is a good bet to add to his victory total Saturday.

His 4.0 average finish at Kansas in the XFINITY Series is the best of any driver, and Joey Logano has never finished outside the top 10 in six career starts at the track. More importantly, he has four finishes of third or better at Kansas, including a pair of wins.

The Contenders

His first two XFINITY starts at Kansas haven’t gone well, but Kyle Larson is one of the most talented drivers in the field this weekend. He led the most laps last weekend at Charlotte, and he has finished in the top five in nine of his 13 XFINITY starts this year. Expect Larson to have one of the stronger cars this weekend.

He has finished sixth or better in two of his three XFINITY starts at Kansas, and Austin Dillon has finished as high as second at the track. He has also logged a combined five wins in the XFINITY Series over the last two seasons. Dillon has proven to be a threat whenever he races in the XFINITY Series, and that shouldn’t change this weekend.

The No. 88 JR Motorsports car has been fast all year, and Regan Smith will get a turn behind the wheel this weekend. He has a solid record at Kansas, and he has cracked the top five in two of his last three starts at the track, finishing third here last season.

He has been one of the top XFINITY regulars all year, and Daniel Suarez has shown no signs of slowing down now that the Chase has begun. He cracked the top 10 in his Kansas debut last year, and he should be even better in his return trip to the track.

Terrible luck in the first round of the Chase almost doomed Erik Jones, but the title favorite managed to advance. He will make his Kansas debut this weekend, but with four wins under his belt in 2016, Jones is a threat to win at any track.

The Sleepers

His early elimination from the Chase was a surprise, but Ty Dillon could still make some noise before the 2016 comes to a close. After all, he has cracked the top five in both of his starts at Kansas. Dillon won’t be winning the title, but he could be a surprise winner of this weekend’s race.

While he hasn’t won all year, Justin Allgaier has been one of the most consistent drivers all season, logging 24 top 10s in 29 races. He has also been rock solid at Kansas, finishing 11th or better in all five starts and logging a 7.2 average finish. As long as Allgaier keeps running near the front of the field, he has a puncher’s chance to steal a win.

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Xfinity 2016 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds
Kyle Busch +125
Erik Jones +500
Kyle Larson +400
Joey Logano +800
Daniel Suarez +800
Austin Dillon +1200
Elliott Sadler +2200
Justin Allgaier +2200
Ty Dillon +3000
Regan Smith +2500
Darrell Wallace Jr +4000
Brendan Gaughan +3000
Cole Custer +5000
Field +1200

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Posted in NASCARComments Off on 2016 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup Round of 12 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

2016-Sprint-Cup-Series-Power-Rankings2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup Round of 12 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers: The second round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup kicks off this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and the 16-driver field has been trimmed down to 12. It was a relatively upset-free opening round, with Kyle Larson being the lone surprise among the early eliminations. The pressure only revs up from here, and after the next three races, only eight drivers will remain eligible for the title. With that in mind here is a closer look at how the remaining drivers stack up in the quest for the 2016 championship.

2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup Round of 12 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

The Favorites

To say that Martin Truex Jr. carries a little momentum into the second round of the Chase would be a bit of an understatement. He won two of three races in the opening, and he has either won or led the most laps in each of the last five races dating back to the regular season. By the way, the second round of the Chase kicks off at Charlotte, where he led 392 of the 400 laps in a win in May.

Yes, Kevin Harvick would have been eliminated from the Chase had he not won at New Hampshire, but despite awful luck at Chicagoland and Dover, the 2014 champ is still alive. More importantly, he continues to field cars capable of contending for wins each and every weekend, and no one has more top 10s this year.

He is hitting his stride at the perfect time, and Brad Keselowski has logged seven top-five finishes in the last nine races, including three straight to open the Chase. He doesn’t need to win to advance if he keeps clicking off top-five finishes, and his dominance at restrictor-plate tracks this year should come in handy with Talladega looming in the second round.

All defending series champ Kyle Busch did in the first round of the Chase was log a pair of top-three finishes and a 4.3 average finish. After spending the first part of his career attacking tracks with a checkers-or-wreckers mentality, Busch has finally figured out that a top-five finish isn’t a bad thing. As long as he thinks about the big picture, he is going to be tough to dethrone.

The Contenders

After spending much of the season looking lost on the track, Jimmie Johnson has suddenly found a bunch of speed when it matters most. He had cars capable of winning two of the first three Chase races, but pit road issues knocked him out of contention. Yes, he has to clean up the mistakes, but the six-time champ is dangerous once again.

While he hasn’t won a race since June, Joey Logano has quietly reeled off eight straight finishes of 11th or better, and he logged a 6.3 average finish in the first of the Chase. Now, he heads to the second, where he won all three races a year ago.

After an up-and-down regular season, Matt Kenseth and his team were on their games in the opening round of the Chase. He cracked the top 10 in all three races, picking up a pair of top-five finishes. At his best, Kenseth is as good as any driver in the series, and it looks like he is hitting his stride in crunch time.

The Sleeper

It is hard to imagine a rookie winning the Sprint Cup, but this format gives Chase Elliott a puncher’s chance. He has shown all year that he is no ordinary rookie, and in the opening round of the Chase, he posted a 6.3 average finish and a pair of third-place runs. Consistency like that will get him to the final race, and Elliott has the raw talent to make some noise in the winner-take-all finale.

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Posted in NASCARComments Off on 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup Round of 12 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites, Contenders & Sleepers

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