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Author Archives | Brian Polking

2018 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Hollywood Casino 400

2018 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Hollywood Casino 400: The Round of 12 of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs comes to an end this weekend at Kansas Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval will play host to Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, and while the stakes are much higher than they were when the series visited the track back in May, that doesn’t necessarily mean you need to change your betting strategy.

Tracks like Kansas with a mile-and-a-half layout tend to be some of the most predictable, and this year, the trio of drivers nicknamed the Big 3 have dominated these tracks. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have combined to win seven of the eight races at 1.5-mile ovals in 2018, so when you start placing bets, you will want to make sure you have plenty of money riding on the big names.

2018 Hollywood Casino 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Hollywood Casino 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (3/1)

Harvick has been the best in the business at the mile-and-a-half tracks this year, winning three times and leading the most laps of any driver in the eight races. One of those wins came at Kansas back in May, and over the last 10 races here, Harvick has seven finishes off third or better, winning three times and leading a series-high 592 laps. If you are putting a lot of money on a heavy favorite, Harvick is your smartest play.

Martin Truex Jr. (9/2)

Truex was dominant at Kansas last year, sweeping both races at leading more than 90 laps in each. He just missed out on a three-peat with a runner up effort here back in the spring, and he has been a force at the 1.5-mile tracks, logging a series-best seven Top 5s in the eight races this year. Truex is basically a lock to be in the mix for the win this weekend.

Kyle Busch (8/1)

I was surprised to see Busch at 8/1 this weekend because that’s pretty good room for profit for a proven stud. He is the only driver who has finished in the Top 10 in all eight races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, and his three wins in those races are tied for the most. Busch also has seven straight Top 10s at Kansas, picking up one win and five Top 5s.

Ryan Blaney (12/1)

If you want to stray away from the Big 3 this weekend, Blaney is one of my favorite alternatives among the favorites. He has four Top 10s in seven Cup starts at Kansas, and he cracked the Top 5 in both races here a year ago. Blaney has led laps in three straight races here, leading more than 50 laps at Kansas back in May before he and Kyle Larson got together battling for the win. He has shown he can run up front at this track.

Bad Bets

Denny Hamlin (3/1)

There is a good chance this is a typo on the part of the oddsmakers because having Hamlin listed as the co-favorite for Sunday’s race is beyond ridiculous. Yes, he has back-to-back Top 5s at Kansas, but his only win here came in 2012, and he hasn’t won a race at any 1.5-mile track since 2015. Throw in the fact that he has been inconsistent and mistake-prone all year, and betting on Hamlin would be a total waste of money.

Kyle Larson (4/1)

Larson has been solid at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, logging seven Top 10s and four Top 5s in the eight races. He also had a great run at Kansas back in May, leading a race-high 101 laps. That being said, we are still talking about a guy who has never won a Cup race at a mile-and-a-half track, but he has better odds to win than Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. It makes absolutely no sense to back Larson at 4/1.

Nascar Hollywood Casino 400 Odds – Race Winner
Driver To Win
Kevin Harvick +250
Kyle Larson +500
Martin Truex Jr +600
Kyle Busch +600
Brad Keselowski +600
Ryan Blaney +1000
Joey Logano +1000
Chase Elliott +3000
Clint Bowyer +2200
Kurt Busch +2500
Erik Jones +2500
Aric Almirola +2500
Denny Hamlin +3000
Jimmie Johnson +6000
Daniel Suarez +8000
Alex Bowman +8000
Ryan Newman +20000
Jamie McMurray +20000
Paul Menard +15000
Austin Dillon +10000
Field +3500

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2018 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Kansas Lottery 300

2018 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Kansas Lottery 300: The NASCAR XFINITY Series kicks off its second round of the playoffs this weekend with a trip to Kansas Speedway. This will be the first trip to the track for the XFINITY teams this year, but it will be the eighth time the series has visited a track with a mile-and-a-half layout.

Despite the fact that Cup drivers are not allowed to compete in XFINITY races during the playoffs, you probably won’t want to stray too far from household names this weekend. The 1.5-mile ovals like Kansas tend to be kind to big names, and I think the winner is probably going to come from one of the top championship threats.

2018 Kansas Lottery 300 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Kansas Lottery 300

The Favorites

Christopher Bell (2/1)

Yes, he’s a rookie, but Bell actually made his Kansas debut last fall and ended up beating Erik Jones for the win in a classic finish. This year, he leads all drivers with six top-five finishes and a 3.9 average finish in the seven races at 1.5-mile ovals, and Bell has been able to lead laps in five of those races. He also leads all drivers with six wins this season, so there isn’t a safer bet out there this weekend.

Justin Allgaier (4/1)

A couple of wrecks are dragging down his average finish at the 1.5-mile tracks, but Allgaier has finished seventh or better in five of those seven races, leading laps and finishing in the top five in the two most recent races. He’s also been one of the strongest drivers in the series on a weekly basis, and his five wins are one behind Christopher Bell for the series lead and four more than any other series regular.

Value Bets

Cole Custer (6/1)

While he hasn’t won a race yet this season, Custer is always a threat at the 1.5-mile ovals. He has finished in the top 10 in the last six races, reeling off five straight top-five finishes and leading laps in three of the last four. Custer is pretty much a lock to be battling for the win, and he offers a little more room for profit than the two favorites.

Daniel Hemric (8/1)

Hemric has done everything but win a race this year, and he has been excellent at the 1.5-mile tracks. He has finished 11th or better in six of the seven races, notching three top-five finishes and leading laps in four of the last five. After Christopher Bell and Justin Allgaier, Hemric is the guy who always seems to be in the mix week in and week out.

John Hunter Nemechek (10/1)

He doesn’t have much experience in the XFINITY Series, but Nemechek has been stout in both of his starts at 1.5-mile tracks, finishing fourth and seventh, respectively. Perhaps more importantly, he will be driving for the Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 team this weekend, and that team has already put two different drivers in victory lane, winning five races overall.

Spencer Gallagher (28/1)

With his suspension and a shoulder injury both causing him to miss time this season, it is easy to forget that Gallagher has been solid when behind the wheel. In addition to winning at Talladega, he has finished in the top 15 in four of his five starts at 1.5-mile ovals, picking up three top-10s. Gallagher could be a sneaky value bet at 28/1.

Sleeper Special

Ryan Truex (50/1)

There have been seven races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, and Truex has cracked the top 15 in all of them, posting an 11.3 average finish. He has also finished in the top 15 in both of his XFINITY starts at Kansas, cracking the top 10 in his most recent start at the track. Truex should at least be close enough to the front to try to steal a win with strategy, and you can’t ask for much more at 50/1.

Xfinity Kansas Lottery 300 Odds – Race Winner
Driver To Win
Christopher Bell +175
Justin Allgaier +600
Ryan Preece +700
Cole Custer +600
Daniel Hemric +500
Elliott Sadler +1500
John Hunter Nemechek +1200
Austin Cindric +2000
Tyler Reddick +1800
Brandon Jones +2500
Spencer Gallagher +4000
Matt Tifft +4000
Ryan Truex +5000
Field +2000

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2018 College Football Picks and Predictions: Week 6 Heisman Trophy Rankings

2018 College Football Picks and Predictions – Week 6 Heisman Trophy Rankings: The 2018 College Football season is heading into the heart of conference play, and while out-of-conference wins can be nice resume boosters, this is the time of year that really defines a team’s season. It is also the time of year when players can solidify themselves as frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy.

Of course, some players have already put their names in the conversation, especially the quarterbacks from the top teams in the country. Whether or not they stay at the top of the list remains to be seen, but in the meantime, here is a closer look my top-five Heisman Trophy contenders after Week 5 of the season.

2018 College Football Picks and Predictions: Week 6 Heisman Trophy Rankings

  1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama Crimson Tide 

The now unquestioned leader of the Alabama offense has the Crimson Tide putting up 54.2 points per game, the most of any team in the country. He has throw 14 touchdown passes this year without an interception, and he is completing 75.0 percent of his passes. Tagovailoa has also added a couple of rushing scores. The games against LSU and Auburn could ultimately define his Heisman hops, but he has put himself in prime position to take home the award.

  1. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma Sooners

How does a Heisman candidate bounce back from a short benching for a violation of team rules? If you are Murray, you enter the game and pile up 477 yards of total offense and seven touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback currently has 1,460 yards passing to go with 17 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 70.6 completion percentage, and he has rushed for 285 yards and four more scores. With games against Texas, Oklahoma State and West Virginia still to come, Murray will have the platform to make a strong Heisman push if he continues to put up huge offensive numbers.

  1. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes

He had the first true Heisman moment among the frontrunners when he led the Buckeyes back from the dead in the fourth quarter of a road win against Penn Stater last weekend. Haskins actually played better than his numbers suggest, and if it weren’t for a couple of drops by his receivers, he might not have needed the comeback in the first place. Either way, he is sitting on 19 touchdown passes and just two picks, heading into a friendly portion of the schedule when he should put up some big numbers. After that, Haskins will have big games against Michigan State and Michigan to try to lock down the Heisman for himself and playoff spot for his team.

  1. Will Grier, QB, West Virginia Mountaineers

Grier just keep singing touchdowns as the engine that drives West Virginia’s high-powered scoring attack. He has thrown for 1,487 yards and 17 touchdowns in just four games, and he is completing 72.1 percent of his passes. The big numbers are likely to continue because of the nature of the offense, but if Grier can help the Mountaineers make a run at the Big 12 title, it will really push his Heisman campaign into high gear. Matchups against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to end the season could definite his Heisman hopes and West Virginia’s season.

  1. Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State Nittany Lions

His team came out on the wrong end of a classic against Ohio State last weekend, but McSorley made the most of his time on the national stage. His 461 yards of offense in that game were a school record, and he kept the Buckeyes off balance all night with 175 rushing yards to go with his big plays in the passing game. McSorley has now rushed for 410 yards and six scores this year, and he has thrown for another 10 scores. With games against Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin still to come, McSorley has the big stages to keep himself relevant, especially if he keeps the Nittany Lions in the playoff mix as a one-loss team. He will probably need a really special performance or two if he wants to jump to the top of the list, but he is capable of just that.

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2018 Gander Outdoors 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Gander Outdoors 400

2018 Gander Outdoors 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Gander Outdoors 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are in full swing, and a return trip to Dover International Speedway is on tap this weekend for the Gander Outdoors 400. Nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” the one-mile, concrete oval has an overall narrow layout, and the tight confines have been known to produce some big wrecks on the track and on pit road.

While the track is capable of jumping out and biting a driver, big names have historically performed very well at Dover, and that includes the Big 3 of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. This trio has dominated the Cup Series most of the year, and they will once again be on the list of favorites heading into Sunday’s race.

Check out all my top bets for the Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover International Speedway.

2018 Gander Outdoors 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Gander Outdoors 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (5/2)

Harvick will try for the season sweep at Dover after a dominant performance in the spring that saw him lead 201 of the 400 laps. It was his second win at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, and in nine starts at Dover with SHR, he has led 1,011 laps. Harvick has led more than 90 laps in five of those starts, and he has led more than 200 laps three times. He is the best bet to put a beatdown on the rest of the field.

Kyle Busch (3/1)

With three career wins under his belt at Dover, Busch clearly knows how to get around “The Monster Mile.” One of those wins came last fall, and for whatever reason, the fall race at the track has been his best. Prior to last year’s win, Busch had finished second in the fall race at Dover in both 2016 and 2015, and he has cracked the top 10 in the last eight fall races here. As he has been most of the season, Busch is one of the safest places to put your money this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)

His first career Cup win came at Dover, and Truex has been locked in at the track since joining Furniture Row Racing. In nine starts here with the team, he has a 5.7 average finish and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. More importantly, Truex has reeled off four straight top-five finishes at Dover, winning the fall race in 2016 and leading more than 50 laps in three of those four events. In fact, Truex has led more than 40 laps in five of his last seven starts here, leading more than 100 laps three times. Getting the longest odds to win of the Big 3, he’s an excellent bet this weekend/

Kyle Larson (7/1)

Although he is still looking for a win at Dover, Larson has been one of the strongest performers at the track since coming to the Cup Series. He has an 8.1 average finish and seven top-10s in nine career starts, and he has finished third or better three times. Larson has also led at least 85 laps in three of his last five starts here, leading 241 and 137 laps, respectively, in the two races at Dover a year ago. As much time as he has been spending out front, it is only a matter of time before he breaks through with a win. After the Big 3, Larson looks like your safest bet.

Bad Bets

Joey Logano (14/1)

Logano has had some solid finishes at Dover, but it just hasn’t been his best track over the years. His last top-five finish here came back in the fall of 2014, and he has actually been in a bit of a slump here recently. He has qualified outside the top 15 and finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five starts at the track, and he just doesn’t have the type of speed a driver needs to contend for a strong finish, let alone a win. If I’m straying from the heavy favorites, there are drivers with more upside than Logano that are getting friendlier odds.

Nascar Gander Outdoors 400 Odds – Race Winner
Kevin Harvick +300
Kyle Busch +400
Martin Truex Jr +450
Kyle Larson +700
Brad Keselowski +1000
Clint Bowyer +1200
Ryan Blaney +1500
Joey Logano +1500
Chase Elliott +1500
Denny Hamlin +2000
Erik Jones +2500
Kurt Busch +2500
Aric Almirola +4000
Jimmie Johnson +2500
Daniel Suarez +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Ryan Newman +10000
Jamie McMurray +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Field +3000

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2018 Bar Harbor 200 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bar Harbor 200 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers

2018 Bar Harbor 200 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Bar Harbor 200 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers: The NASCAR XFINITY Series heads to Dover International Speedway this weekend for the second race of the year at “The Monster Mile.” Saturday’s Bar Harbor 200 is also the final race of the opening round of the playoffs, so you can expect a little extra intensity as the drivers near the elimination line fight to keep their title hopes alive.

With the playoffs in full swing, it also means that no Cup Series regulars are allowed to participate in the race. This naturally makes things a little more wide open, but there are still a small group of XFINITY regulars who have stood out form the pack.

Check out my top options and my favorite value bets for the XFINITY Series Bar Harbor 200 at Dover.

2018 Bar Harbor 200 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bar Harbor 200 Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers

The Favorites

Christopher Bell (11/4)

He’s been one of the best drivers in the series all year, and Bell’s five victories are tied for the most in the series. His only XFINITY start at Dover came earlier this year, and although an inspection problem in qualifying forced him to start 34th, he still rallied for a fourth-place finish. Bell has shown all year that he can win on any type of track, and Dover is no exception. You can’t go wrong backing him this weekend.

Justin Allgaier (7/2)

Allgaier is in the middle of a career year, and he already has five wins under his belt, including a dominating victory in the spring race at Dover when he led more than half the laps. In five starts at the track with JR Motorsports, he has a 4.2 average finish and four top-five finishes, so he is in the mix for the win whenever he visits Dover. Expect more of the same this weekend, and Allgaier is a safe place to put your money this weekend.

Value Bets

Ryan Preece (7/1)

He has made a couple of starts at Dover in the XFINITY Series, but neither of them came in a quality car. That will change this weekend when he makes his first start at the track for Joe Gibbs Racing. In 14 previous starts with JGR in the XFINITY Series, he has two wins, nine Top 5s and 11 Top 10s, and he has also led laps in six of those races. With equipment capable of showcasing his talent, Preece becomes one of the favorites at any track on the schedule. He’s one of the top alternatives if you want to fade the betting favorites.

Daniel Hemric (8/1)

Hemric has been knocking on the door of a win all year, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend at Dover. He has compiled a 6.7 average finish in three career starts here, finishing fourth at the track last fall and third in the spring race earlier this year. After fighting for the win in each of the last two races at Dover, Hemric should give you a great chance at the win and more room for profit than you will get with the heavy favorites.

Tyler Reddick (14/1)

Qualifying inspection issues forced him to start way back in 33rd in the spring race at Dover, which makes it even more impressive that Reddick led 23 laps and finished in the top five. All the JR Motorsports cars were fast in that race, and if Reddick can have a normal qualifying run this time around, he might have enough left at the end to secure the win. At 14/1, I think it’s worth finding out.

The Sleeper

Matt Tifft (33/1)

The sample size isn’t huge, but Tifft has had nothing but success at Dover so far in his career. He has made four XFINITY starts at the track for two different teams, and he has finished in the top 10 in all four of them. His consistency stacks up with just about any driver in the field, and Dover is the type of track where a driver can get out in front and hold off faster cars for a while. Tifft should at least be in position to have a puncher’s chance at pulling off the upset, and it is a chance I’m willing to take at 33/1 odds.

Xfinity Bar Harbor 200 Odds – Race Winner
Christopher Bell +300
Justin Allgaier +350
Cole Custer +500
Elliott Sadler +700
Ryan Preece +700
Daniel Hemric +900
John Hunter Nemechek +1000
Ty Reddick +1500
Brandon Jones +2500
Austin Cindric +2500
Matt Tifft +3000
Spencer Ghallagher +4000
Ryan Truex +4000
Field +2000

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Best Round of 12 Championship Value Bets

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Best Round of 12 Championship Value Bets: The first round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is in the books, and the field of title contenders has been chopped from 16 down to 12. It was no surprise to see Austin Dillon knocked out, but it was a bit of a shock to see Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin and seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson also bow out early.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Best Round of 12 Championship Value Bets

Of course, the Big 3 of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. remain the heavy betting favorites to win the title, and if you simply want to play it safe, placing some money on all three of them is your smartest move. If you want to try to hit it big with a sleeper bet, this is the time to do it.

With 12 drivers and seven races still remaining, you can still get some solid odds on the drivers outside of the Big 3, but the chaos of the first round is now out of the way, and the path to the championship race becomes a little easier to predict.

I’ve highlighted a few of my favorite value bets to win the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship heading into the Round of 12 of the playoffs.

Top Bets

Kyle Larson (10/1)

He was given a second life in the championship fight when he was one of two drivers to advance to the Round of 12 after there was a three-way tie for the final transfer spot. Now in this round, Larson gets a shot at Dover track where he led more than 100 laps in both races a year ago and a Kansas track where he led more than 100 laps earlier this year. Not to mention the fact that if he is able to reach the title race at Homestead, he is probably the best in the business at that track today. Larson gives you a little more room for profit than the Big 3 while still having exposure to a driver who can go out and dominate at almost any type of track.

Chase Elliott (20/1)

Elliott has gotten better as the season goes on, and the schedule really works in his favor going forward. The Round of 12 opens at Dover, and Elliott led the most laps in that race last year before being passed in the final laps. If he can advance to the Round of 8, he has two of his best tracks, Martinsville and Phoenix, waiting for him. Elliott could easily point his way out of the Round of 12 and win his way into the title race at Homestead. That’s a decent path to a shot at a title for someone with 20/1 odds.

Clint Bowyer (20/1)

It wasn’t pretty, but Bowyer was able to advance on to the Round of 12. With the field shortened, his playoff points from his two victories become even more valuable, and some of the remaining tracks have been kind to him. He was the runner-up at Dover back in May, and he won the spring race at Martinsville, a track they will see again in the Round of 8. With more playoff points than several drivers who have better odds to win the title, Bowyer could be a nice sleeper at 20/1.

Ryan Blaney (28/1)

The honor of best value on the board has to go to Blaney. He is coming off a win at the Roval last weekend, and he ranks in the Top 10 in just about every scoring loop category this season, ranking fifth in laps led and sixth in average running position. Granted, he has a bad habit of ending up with mediocre finishes at tracks where he should finish in the Top 5, but if he puts together three clean races, he will could easily advance on points. More importantly, he runs near the front enough to make another victory very possible. I’ll take a driver with weekly top-five potential at 28/1 any day of the week.

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2018 Bank of America Roval 400 Free Picks and Predictions: Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Bank of America Roval 400

2018 Bank of America Roval 400 Free Picks and Predictions – Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Bank of America Roval 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will make its inaugural visit to the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course this weekend, and Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 has the potential to be one of the most surprising races of the 2018 races.

The track itself will be a challenge in more ways than one. The Roval packs 17 turns into its 2.28-mile layout, and since it also uses stretches of the Charlotte oval, drivers are going to carry a ton of speed into certain sections. Throw in a surface that drivers say lacks decent grip and the lack of run-off areas, and it is going to be really easy to get in a lot of trouble this weekend.

Some drivers are even predicting that the winner might be the last driver still running at the finish, and from a betting standpoint, the potential for a crash-filled, chaotic even means an opportunity to cash in. If big names start crashing out left and right, the door is going to be wide open for a surprise winner.

Check out my favorite value bets and potential longshots to take a chance on for Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400.

2018 Bank of America Roval 400 Free Picks and Predictions: Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Bank of America Roval 400

Value Bets

Kurt Busch (16/1)

While Busch doesn’t have a bunch of road course wins, I was still surprised to see him getting such long odds. After all, no driver has been more dependable at the road courses recently, and over the last 10 road races, his eight top-10s are tied for the most of any driver. Busch hasn’t finished worse than 12th in that same span, and his 7.1 average finish is the best in the series. His steady results should be even more valuable in a race that is expected to see plenty of wrecks, and Busch gives you the opportunity to have exposure to a driver who is likely going to be in contention for the win while still having some room for profit.

A.J. Allmendinger (22/1)

There is never much middle ground at the road courses with Allmendinger, but when he doesn’t wreck trying to get to the front, he is usually fighting for the win. He is a former winner at Watkins Glen, and over the last 10 road races, his 115 laps led are the second most of any driver. Given everyone’s lack of experience on the Roval, Allmendinger’s road racing expertise could give him even more of an edge than usual this weekend. If he can keep the car on the track, he could end up in victory lane. I’ll gamble on his upside at 22/1.

Erik Jones (25/1)

I know he doesn’t have a lot of experience, but you can’t deny that Jones has delivered excellent results in his limited road course action. He has three top-10s in four road races, including finishes of seventh and fifth this season. Jones probably needs to win this weekend at advance in the playoffs, so you already know he will have a checkers-or-wreckers attitude. He’s an appealing option at 25/1.

Chris Buescher (100/1)

There is something to be said about learning from a veteran, and since Buescher became teammates with road racing ace A.J. Allmendinger, he has seen a notable jump in performance at the road courses. Buescher has cracked the top 20 in all four road races with JTG Daugherty Racing, finishing 12th or better twice. He hasn’t been a legitimate contender for a win yet, but he should be within striking distance if chaos erupts as many are predicting.

Alex Bowman (100/1)

His overall numbers at road courses certainly won’t impress anyone, but Bowman hasn’t been in decent equipment until this season. In his two road course starts in the Hendrick Motorsports No. 88, he has a pair of top-15s, including a top-10 effort at Sonoma. At the very least, he has a shot at another top-10, and if the race is as wild as expected, he could find himself in the hunt for the win. He’s not a bad gamble at 100/1.

Sleeper Special

Daniel Hemric (1000/1)

Making just his second Cup start, a Hemric win this weekend would be an epic upset. However, he has been excellent in his road course starts at the XFINITY level, and he will essentially be driving Richard Childress Racing equipment. The rest of the drivers getting similar odds are in equipment that will be lucky to even make it to the finish, let alone be capable of turning competitive laps. If I’m throwing a Hail Mary this weekend, I’m putting a few bucks on Hemric.

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2018 Bank of America Roval 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Bank of America Roval 400

2018 Bank of America Roval 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Bank of America Roval 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend for the first elimination race of the 2018 playoffs, but for the first time, the track’s road course will be used in place of the traditional, 1.5-mile oval.

Nicknamed the Roval, the Charlotte road course is a 17-turn, 2.28-mile track that includes portions of the mile-and-a-half oval. In addition to being new to the schedule, drivers have described the surface as slick and the layout of the track unforgiving, and most are predicting Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 to be one of the craziest races of the year.

Despite the unknowns, the Roval is still a road course, and there are certain drivers in the series today that stand out from the rest of the competitors when it comes to road racing. These drivers should still have an edge at the Roval, and the advantage may be even more pronounced given how challenging the track is expected to be.

Here is a closer look at the betting favorites I recommend backing for Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400, as well as a look at some of the favorites who I’m staying away from this weekend.

2018 Bank of America Roval 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Bank of America Roval 400

Top Bets

Kyle Busch (3/1)

Few drivers have ever wheeled a car as well as Kyle Busch can, and his natural ability gives him an edge at any road course, especially at one that is new to the schedule. Busch’s four road course wins are the most among active drivers, and he has finished seventh or better in eight straight road course events, leading laps in seven of the eight races in that span. Busch is the closest thing to a lock when it comes to being in the mix for the win this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)

Truex has been absolutely locked in at the road courses recently, picking up two wins and a second-place finish in the last three races. He has also led a series-best 115 laps at the road courses since the start of last season, leading more than 20 laps in three of the four races in that stretch. If not for an engine failure while leading at Sonoma in 2017, his numbers would be even more incredible. I will be shocked if he doesn’t have one of the best cars this weekend.

Chase Elliott (8/1)

He has shown potential at the road courses since his rookie year, but Elliott has exploded on to the scene in 2018. He picked up his first top-five finish at a road course when he finished fourth at Sonoma, but he topped that in a big way the next time at Watkins Glen when he led a race-high 52 laps and went to victory lane. As much speed as he has shown at the road courses this year, you have to like Elliott’s chances of contending for the win Sunday.

Clint Bowyer (10/1)

Bowyer has a road course win to his name, and since joining Stewart-Haas Racing last year, he has been able to remind everyone that he is one of the best in the business at road racing. In four starts with SHR, Bowyer has a 5.3 average finish and a pair of top-three finishes. He’s a top-five option this weekend, and he gives you a little more room for profit than the betting favorites.

Favorite to Avoid

Joey Logano (10/1)

After an excellent stretch at the road courses from 2014 through 2016, Logano is in a bit of a slump. He has failed to crack the top 10 in the last four road course events, and he has finished outside the Top 15 in three straight. Logano is capable of breaking out of the funk, but I don’t recommend taking that chance when the payoff is only 10/1.

Nascar Bank of America Roval 400 – Race Winner
Kyle Busch +500
Martin Truex Jr +600
Kevin Harvick +1000
Brad Keselowsk +1500
Joey Logano +1500
Clint Bowyer +600
Chase Elliott +700
Kurt Busch +700
Denny Hamlin +3000
AJ Allmendinger +800
Ryan Blaney +2500
Kyle Larson +1500
Jimmie Johnson +1500
Daniel Suarez +3000
Erik Jones +2000
Jamie McMurray +3000
Aric Almirola +10000
Michael McDowell +6000
Alex Bowman +2000
Paul Menard +10000
Ryan Newman +10000
Field +1500

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2018 Drive for the Cure 200 Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Drive for the Cure 200

2018 Drive for the Cure 200 Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Drive for the Cure 200: For the first time ever, the NASCAR XFINITY Series will race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course this weekend. The 17-turn course will host Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 200, and thanks to the super slick surface and a layout that offers zero margin for error, drivers are expecting the inaugural race to be a wild one.

Many drivers have gone as far as to say that there are only going to be a few cars still running by the end of the race. I don’t think it will be that bad, but I do think we will see plenty of wrecks, which could open the door for a surprise winner.

Yes, there are definitely a few drivers who tend to stand out from the pack at the road courses, but I wouldn’t be shy about betting on a few sleepers this weekend either. Check out all my favorite betting options for the Drive for the Cure 200 at the Charlotte Roval.

2018 Drive for the Cure 200 Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers for the Drive for the Cure 200

The Favorites

Austin Cindric (3/1)

He has a background in road racing, and he will be behind the wheel of one of the best cars in the series, the Team Penske No. 22. Saturday will mark his third road course start of the year for the team, and in his first start in the No. 22, he led 59 of the 75 laps and finished second at Mid-Ohio. In his next start, Cindric surged from eighth to the lead in just 15 laps before suffering an engine failure at Road America. His 61 laps led at the road courses this year are 30 more than any other driver and 39 more than any other driver in the field this weekend. Cindric is going to show up with a car capable of leading laps and contending for the win.

Justin Allgaier (4/1)

Allgaier is having an incredible year at the road courses, finishing third at Watkins Glen and winning the races at Mid-Ohio and Road America. His 1.7 average finish through the first three road course events is the best in the series, and for his career, Allgaier has three road course wins and a 15 top-10s in 23 starts. He’s probably the safest bet on the board this weekend.

Value Bets

Cole Custer (10/1)

Although he is still waiting for a dominating road course performance, you have to like Custer’s consistency. He has cracked the top 10 in all three road races this year, posting a 5.7 average finish and logging a fourth-place finish in the most recent road course event at Road America. Custer seems to be getting better, and he was already a solid bet to be near the front.

Matt Tifft (12/1)

Tifft is my favorite value bet on the board this weekend, and while he is probably a total unknown to casual fans, he knows how to wheel a car around a road course. In six road races at the XFINITY level, he has four Top 5 finishes. Two of those have come in the three races season, including a runner-up effort the last time out at Road America when he also led 12 laps.

Ryan Preece (20/1)

The sample size is small, but you have to be impressed with Preece’s performance in his first road course start for Joe Gibbs Racing when he finished fourth and led eight laps at Watkins Glen earlier this year. Overall, he has two wins and 10 top-10s in 13 career starts for JGR, so these are some bettor-friendly odds for a guy who has piled up some great numbers in a short amount of time.

Sleeper Special

Andy Lally (33/1)

He only makes select appearances in NASCAR events and doesn’t have the best equipment, but Lally’s road racing expertise has translated to solid results in the XFINITY Series. He has cracked the top 15 in both starts this season, finishing in the top 10 at Road America. Lally has now finished in the top 10 in five of his 10 XFINITY road course starts, and on a course that is brand new to the schedule, his experience could prove to be an even bigger advantage.

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2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard, and fitting to a track that has hosted many legends of motorsports, the list of Cup Series winners at the track is littered with current and future Hall of Famers.

All told, 19 of the 24 Cup races at Indianapolis have been won by drivers who have also won a Cup Series crown, and only two drivers with wins at Indy have fewer than 18 career wins. Needless to say, you might not want to stray too far from the household names when placing your bets. Check out my top options for Sunday’s Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard.

2018 Big Machine Vodka 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (5/2)

Although he has the same odds as Kevin Harvick, I actually think Busch is the smartest bet on the board this weekend. He has been a dominant force at Indianapolis the last several years, finishing either first or second in four of the last six races. Busch won here in 2015 and 2016, and he led a race-high 87 laps last year before being taken out while leading on a late restart. Look for Busch to go to victory lane for the third time in the last four years at Indy this weekend.

Kevin Harvick (5/2)

Harvick has been in the mix for wins in just about every race this season, and he has already sealed the deal seven times. He is also a former winner at the Brickyard, and he has finished in the top 10 in all four of his starts at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick is pretty much a lock to have a shot at the win Sunday.

Brad Keselowski (10/1)

He is coming off a win at Darlington, and Keselowski always seems to be in contention at Indianapolis. Granted, he only has one top-five finish in eight starts at the track, but he has led laps in six of those races, leading at least 15 laps here in each of the past three seasons. With a little momentum in his corner and a history of running up front, I like Keselowski if you are looking for a little more room for profit than what the two co-favorites offer.

Joey Logano (16/1)

Logano has flipped a switch at Indianapolis since joining Team Penske, cracking the top 10 in all five of his starts at the track while compiling a 5.2 average finish. Logano has three top-five finishes during that stretch, and he has led laps in four of those five starts. His 16/1 odds seem pretty friendly for a driver who is always in the mix at Indy.

Bad Bets

Kyle Larson (6/1)

I love Kyle Larson as a driver, but I don’t love him at 6/1 odds this weekend. Yes, he has been good at Indianapolis, finishing in the top 10 in three of his four starts and notching a top-five finish in 2017. On the flip side, he has never led a lap at the track, and he still hasn’t been able to win a race in 2018. In fact, Larson has only won three stages all year. I’d rather just back Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick or take a shot on a dark horse.

Ryan Blaney (16/1)

Blaney has been one of the faster drivers week in and week out this year, but he has also been one of the most inconsistent. In three starts at Indianapolis, he has a 23.7 average finish, finishing outside the top 10 in all three races and crashing out twice. I think Blaney will have top-five potential this weekend, but there are other drivers getting similar odds who I have a lot more confidence in.

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