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Author Archives | Brian Polking

2018 NASCAR XFINTIY Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers for the Alsco 300

2018 NASCAR XFINTIY Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers for the Alsco 300: The NASCAR XFINITY Series returns to action this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway after a two-week layoff, and after the Dash 4 Cash promotion had prevented Cup Series regulars from competing in the last four races, the big names will be back in the field for Saturday’s Alsco 300.

On one hand, the return of the Cup regulars can limit your potential profits because they have such strong odds of dominating the rest of the field. On the plus side, their presence also turns some of the best XFINITY regulars into decent value bets.

Whether you like to back the favorites or take a shot on a sleeper, check out all of my top betting options to get ready for Saturday’s Alsco 300 at Charlotte.

2018 NASCAR XFINTIY Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers for the Alsco 300

The Favorites

Kyle Busch (+150)

You won’t make a ton of money by betting on Busch, but he might be your only hope of cashing this weekend. He’s been an absolute stud at Charlotte in the XFINITY Series, winning a track-record eight times and finishing in the top five in eight of his last nine starts.

Brad Keselowski (+185)

His overall resume speaks for itself, and if Keselowski’s talent wasn’t enough to earn your trust, his record at Charlotte should. In 18 XFINITY starts at the track, he has logged 14 top-10 finishes, making three trips to victory lane. Keselowski won his first XFINITY start of the year, and he has a great chance of making it two-for-two this weekend.

Christopher Bell (+330)

If you want a little more room for profit than the two Cup juggernaut offer, Bell is the top alternative. In three races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, he has two runner-up finishes and a third-place run, and Bell has led laps in all three of those races. He also finished in the top five in his only XFINITY start at Charlotte to date. Bell should be fighting for the win this weekend.

Value Bets

Elliott Sadler (+1300)

Although he doesn’t have a win yet in 2018, Sadler is basically a lock to be in contention this weekend. Through the first 10 races this season, he has yet to finish outside the top 10 while logging a series-best eight top-five finishes. Two of those top-five finishes came at 1.5-mile ovals, and unlike some other XFINITY regulars, Sadler’s numbers haven’t slipped in races where Cup drivers are in the field. These aren’t bad odds on the most dependable driver in the series.

Chase Elliott (+2000)

Elliott wasn’t expecting to run the XFINITY Series event this weekend, but in the wake of Spencer Gallagher’s suspension, he will pilot the No. 23 GMS Racing machine Saturday night at Charlotte. Yes, it will be his first race with a new team, and I think his longer odds reflect the fear of the unknown. However, Elliott has already been in contention for wins at Charlotte in the Cup Series, and the No. 23 team has been a consistent top-10 threat all year. Take advantage of Elliott’s odds in his GMS debut.

Daniel Hemric (+2200)

The best value available for the Alsco 300 is easily Hemric. At 22/1, he offers some legitimate room for profit, and he’s been one of the strongest series regulars all year. He has finished sixth or better in six of the 10 races this season, and he has finished third in three of the last five races. Perhaps more importantly, he has led more than 30 laps in three of the last five races, leading 39 laps and finishing third at Texas, the most recent race at a mile-and-a-half tracks. Hemric could be an absolute steal.

The Sleeper

Matt Tifft (+5500)

If you are looking to roll the dice to try to hit it big, the best longshot on the board this weekend is Tifft. He’s been consistent all year, logging five top-10s through the first 10 races. He’s been equally as consistent at the 1.5-mile tracks, finishing 12th or better in all three races and finishing as high as sixth at Texas a few weeks ago. Tifft also has two top-10s in three career starts at Charlotte, so at the very least, he should be close enough to the front to try to steal a win with pit strategy.

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2018 Indianapolis 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers

2018 Indianapolis 500 Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers: One of the world’s most famous races and one of the world’s most famous tracks will add another chapter to its storied legacy this weekend with the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500.

Over the years, the best drivers from all over the world have flocked to the 2.5-mile, rectangular-shaped oval to try to add their name to the Borg-Warner Trophy, and on Sunday afternoon, someone else will etch their name into history.

Even if you don’t regularly watch racing, the Indy 500 is one of those spectacles that is just worth seeing, and if you are going to be watching anyway, you might as well try to add even more excitement by trying to pick the winner.

Check out my top bets and favorite value plays for the 2018 Indianapolis 500.

2018 Indianapolis 500 Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Top Sleepers

Top Favorites

Alexander Rossi (8/1)

Rossi won the Indianapolis 500 in his first attempt two years ago, and last year, he led 23 laps on his way to another top-10 finish. He enters Sunday’s race second in the standings, so he certainly has the equipment to bolster his already impressive resume at Indianapolis.

Helio Castroneves (9/1)

While he isn’t racing a full-time schedule anymore, few drivers have enjoyed as much success at Indianapolis. He was the runner-up in last year’s race, and he has three career wins in the Indianapolis 500. Castroneves has finished in the top 10 in 14 of his 17 starts in this race, leading laps in 12 of his starts.

Ryan Hunter-Ray (10/1)

Luck hasn’t always been on his side at Indianapolis, but Hunter-Ray always seems to have a fast car here. He finished third in the 2013 race and won in 2014, and Hunter-Ray has led more than 25 laps in four of his last five starts in the Indianapolis 500. Expect him to have one of the strongest cars on Sunday.

Scott Dixon (10/1)

His lone Indianapolis 500 win came back in 2008, but Dixon remains a constant force at the track. He has cracked the top 10 in 10 of his 15 starts in the event, and his 439 laps led at Indianapolis are the most among active drivers. In fact, Dixon has led more than 50 laps in the Indy 500 on five separate occasions.

Value Bets

Josef Newgarden (12/1)

A third-place finish in 2016 is his best performance to date in the Indianapolis 500, but this could be Newgarden’s chance to deliver a breakout performance. He already has two wins under his belt in 2018, and he enters Sunday’s race as the series point leader. Don’t be fooled by his lackluster overall numbers at Indy. There could be some value here.

Marco Andretti (12/1)

An Indy 500 continues to escape him, but Andretti is no stranger to running up front at this event. He has notched eight top-10 finishes in 12 career starts, and more importantly, he has finished third or better four times while leading double-digit laps five times.

Sebastien Bourdais (12/1)

Bourdais is still looking for a signature performance in the Indianapolis 500, but he has been trending in the right direction at the track, finishing 11th or better in each of the last three races. He’s also been fast in 2018, and after five races, he sits third in the standings with a win under his belt. Expect a career showing at Indy from Bourdais this weekend.

Tony Kanaan (12/1)

Kanaan finally scored an elusive Indianapolis 500 win in 2013, and he continues to knock on the door of another victory. He has led at least 19 laps in this race in each of the last three years, and in 16 career starts in the Indy 500, Kanaan has eight top-five finishes. These are great odds on one of the best in the business at Indianapolis.

Sleepers

Carlos Munoz (20/1)

Although he might not be a player for the IndyCar championship, Munoz has certainly proven he can be a major threat at Indianapolis. In four career starts in the event, he has finished in the top 10 four times. More impressively, Munoz has three top-five finishes here, including a pair of runner-up efforts. You have to like getting these odds on a driver with this type of history at Indy.

Charlie Kimball (30/1)

Kimball’s resume at Indianapolis is solid, and the arrow keeps pointing up. He has finished in the top 10 in four of his seven starts in the Indianapolis 500, and he has finished in the top five in the event in two of the last three seasons. At 30/1, I’ll take my chances.

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2018 NBA Mock Draft: Projected Lottery Picks

2018 NBA Mock Draft – Projected Lottery Picks: The 2018 NBA Draft Lottery is in the books, and now that the first 14 picks in the draft are set in stone, it is time to take my first crack and predicting this year’s lottery selections. There isn’t that can’t-miss star in this year’s class, but there is a good chance that this draft could end up producing several solid NBA players and maybe a star or two. Let’s check out the top picks.

  1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona

He’s got the size, athleticism and offensive promise to be franchise-changing player. Ayton is the most physically imposing prospect to come along in a while.

  1. Sacramento Kings: Luka Doncic, G, Real Madrid

His size and scoring versatility will make him an offensive force at the next level. He could be scoring 20-plus points per game for a long time, which is exactly what a team with the worst scoring attack in the NBA needs.

  1. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Bagley III, PF, Duke

Atlanta’s roster has a lot of holes, and a double-double machine with an NBA-ready offensive game and enough athleticism will be a welcome addition.

  1. Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Michigan State 

Jackson needs time to develop his body and harness his offensive potential, but his length, athleticism and shot blocking give him All-NBA upside on the defensive end.

  1. Dallas Mavericks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas

He’s a high-risk, high-reward prospect, but Bamba has a chance to be a game-changing rim protector and defensive anchor. He could help jumpstart Dallas’ rebuild.

  1. Orlando Magic: Michael Porter Jr., SF, Missouri 

He has some similarities with Aaron Gordon, but Porter has a much higher ceiling on the offensive end and has the athleticism to be a two-away impact player. Orlando isn’t in position to pass up someone with Porter’s potential. 

  1. Chicago Bulls: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma 

The Bulls have some intriguing young pieces, but the explosive scoring and perimeter firepower that Young provides will be a plus. Young could play point alongside Zach LaVine or off the ball with Kris Dunn. 

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova

Assuming LeBron James decides to stick around, Bridges will be an ideal addition. He will provide a much-needed boost to Cleveland’s atrocious defense, and he can knock down open looks from the perimeter when defenses collapse on James.

  1. New York Knicks: Wendell Carter Jr., PF, Duke

New York needs more talent wherever it can find it, and Carter seems like a safe bet in this spot. He probably won’t be a star, but he can score and rebound well enough to be starting NBA big man.

  1. Philadelphia 76ers: Miles Bridges, SF, Michigan State

The 76ers are one of the up-and-coming teams in the NBA, and Bridges provides them with another perimeter weapon with excellent athleticism and the potential to be a two-way force.

  1. Charlotte Hornets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky

Kemba Walker seems destined to leave sooner rather than later, and Gilgeous-Alexander can take the reins of the backcourt. He has elite size for a point guard and the attacking style teams look for these days.

  1. Los Angeles Clippers: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama 

Sexton needs to develop an outside shot, but his speed and physical tools give him a chance to develop into something special. He’s well worth the gamble at this stage in the draft. 

  1. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M

You have to figure DeAndre Jordan will be gone sooner rather than later, and Williams offers a similar combination of size and athleticism. At worst, he should be a high-energy big man off the bench. 

  1. Denver Nuggets: Zhaire Smith, SG, Texas Tech 

Smith flashed just enough offensive promise to go with his motor and defensive instincts to warrant a look in the lottery, especially for a Nuggets team that needs someone to play lockdown defense and do the little things.

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2018 All-Star Open Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers

2018 All-Star Open Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers: The main event of this weekend’s action at Charlotte Motor Speedway will be Saturday night’s All-Star Race, but before some of the top drivers in the series take to the track to race for $1 million, there are four more spots up for grabs in the All-Star Open qualifying race.

The qualifying race will be divided into three stages, and the winner of each stage will transfer into the All-Star Race. The race tends to be one of the more intense events because the drivers having nothing to lose and the potential to win a shot at $1 million.

If you plan on betting on the Open, you need to keep in mind that many betting sites only declare the winner of the third and final stage as the “winner” of the race that you are betting on. If a driver wins either of the first two stages, they probably aren’t going to race the remainder of the event since they’ve already secured themselves a spot in the All-Star Race. It’s definitely something to keep in mind when placing your bets.

2018 All-Star Open Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers

The Favorites

Chase Elliott

It’s been a frustrating year for Elliott, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is one of the best drivers in the Open field. He’s also shown some promise at Charlotte in the past. He was the runner-up in the fall race here last year, and he led more than 100 laps in the fall race in 2016. Elliott is popular enough that he might make the All-Star Race via the fan vote, but I’m not sure he will need it. Look for him to race his way into the main event.

Erik Jones

Of all the drivers in the Open field, Jones has been the best at the 1.5-mile ovals this year. In his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing, he has logged three top-10s and posted a 7.5 average finish through four races at mile-and-a-half tracks. He also picked up a top-10 in his Charlotte debut last spring. It will be a big surprise if Jones doesn’t win one of the stages and secure a spot in the All-Star Race.

Aric Almirola

His first year with Stewart-Haas Racing has been a huge success thus far, and Almirola heads into All-Star weekend with a 12.4 average finish and 10 top-15s through the first 12 races. He’s also been fast at the 1.5-mile ovals, finishing 13th or better in three of the four races. Almirola has been a borderline top-10 performer all year. In the thinned out Open field, he will jump to the head of the pack.

Value Bets

Daniel Suarez

It’s been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time at the 1.5-mile tracks for Suarez this season, but he is still a good driver who has excellent equipment at his disposal. He has finished 11th or better in four of the five races heading into All-Star weekend, and he finished 11th and sixth in two starts at Charlotte as a rookie last year. He could easily break out of his slump at the mile-and-a-half tracks in a big way during the Open.

Paul Menard

He’s made a career out of running in the middle of the pack, but Menard is benefitting from his offseason move to Wood Brothers Racing because of the speed the Ford teams have shown to start the 2018 season. He has top-10 finishes in two of the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, including a sixth-place run at Kansas last weekend. Menard has never shown more upside on a consistent basis than he has this year. He could grab one of the transfer spots to the main event.

William Byron

The rookie has been making gains all year, and he was in position for his second straight top-10 at a 1.5-mile track before being caught up in a wreck in the final laps at Kansas. Byron still has five top-15s in the last 10 races, and a smaller field with many of the big names out of the picture should only bolster his chances. The Open should be Byron’s first chance to make some serious noise.

The Sleeper

Alex Bowman

His first full season in the No. 88 machine has had some highs and lows and a lot of top-20 finishes, especially at the 1.5-mile tracks. However, Bowman had a great car the last time he raced at Charlotte, and he was running in the top three when he had a tire issue. He could sneak up on the favorites and steal the final transfer spot.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race Picks and Predictions: Top Bets and Favorites to Avoid

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race Picks and Predictions – Top Bets and Favorites to Avoid: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is taking an off week from points racing, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot on the line this weekend. There will be a $1 million, winner-take-all purse up for grabs in Saturday night’s All-Star Race.

The exhibition event will last 80 laps and be divided over four stages, but unlike past seasons when there have been eliminations, field inversions and mandatory pit stops, this year’s race will feature a new aero package. NASCAR has decided to use a restrictor-plate package, similar to the one used by the XFINITY Series at Indianapolis last year, with the hoping to make passing easier.

From a betting standpoint, the new aero rules could be a serious X-factor in Saturday’s race, and until cars get on the track and start practicing, nobody is quite sure what to expect. That being said, we have plenty of data of how drivers perform in races at Charlotte and at tracks with the same 1.5-mile layout, and there is a good chance that the drivers who normally run well will continue to excel with the new package.

With that in mind, here is a closer look at the betting favorites who I recommend backing in Saturday night’s All-Star Race.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race Picks and Predictions: Top Bets and Favorites to Avoid

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (5/1)

Busch is the defending winner of the All-Star Race, and he has been one of the best in the business in 2018. He already has three wins under his belt, and he has finished in the top 10 in all four races at 1.5-mile tracks, picking up a win at Texas. It’s been Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick and then everybody else this year, and I don’t expect the new rules to suddenly derail Busch’s momentum.

Kevin Harvick (6/1)

His nine top-10s in the last 10 races at Charlotte are the most of any driver, and Harvick has finished third or better in five of his eight starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing. He’s also been pretty good at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2018, picking up three wins and a second-place finish in the four races. Yes, there is a new rules package being used this weekend, but Harvick has been fast everywhere in 2018. I don’t expect that to change Saturday night.

Martin Truex Jr. (8/1)

Although Kevin Harvick has taken his title as the king of the 1.5-mile tracks, Truex has still be one of the best in the series at the high-speed ovals. He has three top-five finishes in four races this year, including his near-win at Kansas last weekend. Truex also boasts impressive numbers at Charlotte. He has five top-five finishes in the last six races at the track, winning twice and leading more than 90 laps four times. I love Truex as an alternative bet to Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.

Joey Logano (12/1)

He has been the model of consistency this year, notching 10 top-10 finishes through the first 12 races. More importantly, the former Charlotte winner has recaptured his mojo at the 1.5-mile tracks after a bit of a down year in 2017. Logano has finished seventh or better in all four races at 1.5-mile ovals this year, compiling a 5.5 average finish in those starts. He is my favorite value bet among the top betting options this weekend.

Bad Bets

Kyle Larson (8/1)

Larson is coming off one of his best runs ever at a 1.5-mile oval last weekend at Kansas, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has never won a Cup race at a mile-and-a-half track. Not to mention the fact that he hasn’t bene overly great at Charlotte, managing just one top-five finish at an 18.7 average finish in nine starts. Yes, Larson could have a fast car Saturday night, but I have a really hard time backing him at 8/1 when I could have Charlotte stud Martin Truex Jr. for the same odds or have more room for profit with any of the three Team Penske drivers. I’ll pass.

Kurt Busch (12/1)

Don’t get me wrong. Busch has been solid at Charlotte, notching six finishes of 11th or better in his last seven starts. He has also been solid at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2018, posting three top-10s in the first four races. However, he only has one top-five finish during his current hot streak at CMS, and he is still looking for a top-five finish at a 1.5-mile oval this year. Busch should have a top-10 car Saturday night, but I doubt he has the high-end speed needed to win. He is a little overvalued at 12/1.

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2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the KC Masterpiece 400

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the KC Masterpiece 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes a stop at Kansas Speedway this weekend, and the 1.5-mile oval will play host to Saturday night’s KC Masterpiece 400.

Mile-and-a-half tracks like Kansas are typically the most predictable because of the importance of aerodynamics, which gives the top drivers from the top teams a decided advantage over the competition.

Kansas is a track where you will want to heavily back the favorites, and I’ve highlighted my top bets for the KC Masterpiece 400.

2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the KC Masterpiece 400

Favorites to Bet

Kevin Harvick (5/2)

He has amassed an impressive resume at Kansas, and over the last 10 races, he leads all drivers with two wins, seven top-10s, 513 laps led and a 5.9 average finish. He’s been particularly stout since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. In eight races here with SHR, Harvick has finished third or better five times and has led double-digit laps in all but one race. This year, he has been unstoppable at the 1.5-mile tracks, logging two wins and a second-place finish in the three races so far, leading more than 80 laps in all three of those races. If you like backing the smart money, Harvick is your play this weekend

Kyle Busch (7/2)

Kansas used to be one of Busch’s worst tracks, but that has changed in a big way. He has six straight top-10s at the track, picking up five top-five finishes and a win during that span. He’s also led 50-plus laps in three of the last four races here. His numbers at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2018 only bolster his case to be considered one of the favorites. Busch has a 3.3 average finish in three races, and he led the most laps and went to victory lane at Texas the last time the series visited a 1.5-mile oval.

Martin Truex Jr. (7/2)

Although Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have had a slight edge on Truex this year, he’s still managed two top-five finishes in the first three races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year. Perhaps more importantly, no driver has been better at Kansas recently. He swept both races at the track a year ago, and Truex has led more than 90 laps in four of the last six races here. Needless to say, he knows how to run up front and knows how to seal the deal at this place.

Ryan Blaney (15/1)

If you are looking for a little room to profit but don’t want to dip into the longshots, Blaney offers a nice in-between option. He’s posted excellent numbers at Kansas, finishing seventh or better in four of his six starts and logging three top-five finishes in his last four. Last year, he actually led 83 laps in the spring race. Blaney has picked up two top-five finishes in the first three races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2018, and he’s leading more laps than ever in his first year with Team Penske. Blaney is the best value bet on the board this weekend.

Bad Bets

Kyle Larson (8/1)

Larson is one of NASCAR’s rising stars, but Kansas hasn’t been his best track. In eight career starts here, he has managed just two top-10s and has just a single top-five finish. He’s also never won a race at a 1.5-mile oval. Throw in the fact that the Chevrolet teams have been lacking a little speed compared to the Ford and Toyota drivers so far in 2018, especially at these high-speed, intermediate ovals, and I think Larson’s is a little overvalued at 8/1. Save your money.

Denny Hamlin (18/1)

He is a former winner at Kansas, but Hamlin has been wildly inconsistent at the track in his career, especially recently. He finished outside the top 10 in three of his last four starts here, and he only has three top-10s in his last 10 races at the track. Hamlin has also developed a nasty habit of ruining his own races with speeding penalties on pit road, which he is doing on an almost weekly basis right now. Hamlin is a roll-of-the-dice bet this weekend, but he is being valued like one of the frontrunners.

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2018 GEICO 500 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the GEICO 500

2018 GEICO 500 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the GEICO 500: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend for the GEICO 500. It’s NASCAR’s biggest track, but more importantly, it is one of two restrictor-plate tracks on the schedule.

There is nothing better at leveling the playing field in than the power-sapping restrictor plates. They bunch up the entire field, and the pack racing produces big wrecks that often eliminate many of the big names. Needless to say, the plate tracks have been known to produce some surprise winners over the years, and there are drivers who will be in contention this weekend that can finish on the lead lap most weeks.

Sunday’s race is a golden opportunity to hit it big betting on a sleeper, and I’ve highlighted some of my favorite longshots for the GEICO 500 at Talladega.

2018 GEICO 500 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the GEICO 500

Top Sleepers

Aric Almirola (25/1)

He came within half a lap of winning the Daytona 500 this year before being dumped, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been one of the best plate racers in recent years. Almirola is a former winner of the July race at Daytona, and he has finished in the Top 15 in the last six plate races, cracking the Top 5 in three of the last four. Almirola’s numbers stack up with any driver out there, and he could be a steal at these odds.

Jamie McMurray (40/1)

Yes, McMurray is inconsistent at the plate tracks, but he is also a proven winner. He is a two-time winner at both Daytona and Talladega, and among active drivers, only Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson have more wins at plate tracks. McMurray has also cracked the Top 5 in back-to-back spring races at Talladega, finishing second last year. You have to love the 40/1 odds on a driver who has shown he can seal the deal time and time again.

Paul Menard (40/1)

When it comes to momentum at the plate tracks, not many drivers have more than Menard. In fact, he leads all drivers with an 8.0 average finish over the last six restrictor-plate races, and his four Top 10s during that span are tied for the most in the series. Menard finished sixth in the Daytona 500 to open the year, and it is definitely worth noting that he is now driving for a satellite team to Team Penkse. All three Penske drivers happen to be among the betting favorites, and Menard has essentially the same equipment. Why not try to take advantage.

Austin Dillon (50/1)

He used his bumper to pick up a win in the Daytona 500, but even before picking up his first restrictor-plate win, Dillon had already amassed a decent resume at the plate tracks. In 19 career starts, he has logged eight Top 10s, including five in the last 10 races. I’ll take 50/1 odds on the guy who the first plate race of 2018 and has been a consistent Top 10 threat at the plate tracks.

Ryan Newman (50/1)

Newman runs hot and cold at the restrictor-plate tracks, but he is currently in the middle of one of his hot stretches. He has finished eighth or better in each of the last three plate events, and he was the runner-up at Talladega last fall. Richard Childress Racing always seems to field competitive plate cars, and taking a chance on Newman’s hot hand might not be a bad gamble.

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2018 GEICO 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the GEICO 500

2018 GEICO 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the GEICO 500: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, which means restrictor-plate racing returns for the first time since the season opener at Daytona. Plate racing can create some exciting finishes, but it also creates packing racing and plenty of wrecks.

Unfortunately, the chaotic nature of plate racing will make Sunday’s GEICO 500 one of the tougher races to predict, but while it is true that sleepers will have a better shot at winning at Talladega than almost any track on the schedule, it is also true that big names will still emerge with the win more often than not.

With that in mind, here is a closer look at the top betting options that I like for the GEICO 500 at Talladega, as well as a couple of favorites who I believe are overrated.

2018 GEICO 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the GEICO 500

Favorites to Bet

Brad Keselowski (5/1)

Ford has been rolling at the plate tracks, especially at Talladega where the manufacturer has won eight of the last 11 races. Keselowski has been leading the pack, and his six career restrictor-plate wins are the most among active drivers. Five of his six wins have come at Talladega, and no driver has led more laps over the last 10 races at plate tracks. There is no such thing as a “safe” bet at a track like Talladega, but Keselowski is your best bet to have the car to beat.

Joey Logano (8/1)

He is teammates with Brad Keselowski, and Logano has been arguably the most consistent performer at the plate tracks. Over the last 10 races, he leads all drivers with five Top 5s and seven Top 10s. Logano has two wins at Talladega during that stretch, and he is a three-time winner at plate tracks overall. He led 59 laps and finished fourth at Talladega last fall, and he finished fourth again in this year’s Daytona 500. Logano will bring a car capable of contending for the win.

Ryan Blaney (12/1)

Blaney had already shown upside at the plate tracks prior to this season, finishing as high as second in the Daytona 500. He joined Team Penske in the offseason, and he immediately made the jump to serious contender, leading a race-high 118 laps in the Daytona 500. His teammates, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are two of the betting favorites for Sunday’s GEICO 500, and Blaney gives you exposure to the same equipment while giving you more room for profit.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (14/1)

He is an afterthought at most tracks, but Stenhouse has become one of the premier drivers at the restrictor-plate tracks. He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and he won two of the four plate races last year. Stenhouse has also cracked the Top 5 in four of the last seven plate races, leading laps in four straight. He is the best value bet about among the favorites this weekend.

Bad Bets

Kevin Harvick (10/1)

Harvick has multiple restrictor-plate wins under his belt, but he’s been in a real slump recently. He has just two Top 10s and a single Top 5 over the last 10 plate races, and he has finished 20th or worse in five straight. Meanwhile, his last Top 5 at Talladega came way back in 2011. Harvick is one of the best drivers in the series, but it just hasn’t been happening at the plate tracks. He is overvalued at these odds.

Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)

He finished second in the 2016 Daytona 500, but that is about the only notable thing Truex has accomplished at the plate tracks. He has finished outside the Top 10 in each of his last eight races, and in 52 career starts at plate tracks, Truex has a combined three Top 5 finishes. He is one of the favorites to win the title this year, but he should not be one of the favorites to win Sunday. You are much better off throwing a few bucks at a betting longshot.

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2018 Toyota Owners 400 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Toyota Owners 400

2018 Toyota Owners 400 Picks and Predictions – Top Sleeper Bets for the Toyota Owners 400: For the second week in a row, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes a stop at a short track. Richmond Raceway will host Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400, and if you like to try for a big payday by backing drivers with longer odds, a short track like Richmond is a great place to go out on a limb.

Granted, the top drivers still win a majority of the time, but because of the attrition and unpredictability of short track racing, there usually a few surprise drivers battling at the front of the pack. At Bristol last weekend, Jimmie Johnson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Alex Bowman all finished in the top five for the first time in 2018.

There should be some unexpected names in the mix again Saturday night, and here is a closer look at the longshots that could be worth backing in the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond.

2018 Toyota Owners 400 Picks and Predictions: Top Sleeper Bets for the Toyota Owners 400

Top Sleepers

Clint Bowyer (20/1)

Bowyer has struggled at Richmond recently, but a lot of those races came while he was driving for smaller teams. He’s back to running in the top 10 on a routine basis with Stewart-Haas Racing this year, and he already went to victory lane at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago. Richmond is one of only three tracks where he has multiple wins, and now that he has his confidence back and quality equipment to work with, Bowyer should be able to recapture his form at the 0.75-mile short track.

Ryan Blaney (25/1)

I know his career numbers at Richmond aren’t pretty, but I’m shocked too see him getting such long odds this weekend. In four Cup starts here, he has an ugly 30.2 average finish, but Blaney has been a top-five caliber driver throughout 2018. There is no doubt that moving to Team Penske this offseason has allowed him to showcase his full potential, and he has emerged as a short track force, leading at least 100 laps at both Martinsville and Bristol. I expect a similar show of force this weekend at Richmond.

Aric Almirola (40/1) 

Almirola has blossomed in his first year with Stewart-Haas Racing, proving that he can be a weekly top-10 threat if given great equipment. Eight races into the year, he has seven top-15 finishes, and his 13.1 average finish would be by far the best of his career. Now, Almirola gets a chance to show his stuff at Richmond, a track where he owns the best average finish of his career. He’s coming off a sixth-place finish at Bristol last weekend, and this is his best chance to date to make a legitimate run at a victory. He is one of my favorite value bets this weekend.

Alex Bowman (60/1)

He has quietly been a top-15 driver for most of the year, and Bowman has been getting better throughout the year. He has been particularly impressive at short tracks, finishing seventh at Martinsville and logging a top-five finish last weekend at Bristol. He also had the best performance of his Cup career at Phoenix in 2016, and Richmond has a lot of similarities to Phoenix. Riding a wave of momentum at a track that figures to play to his strengths, Bowman is looking like a potential bargain at 60/1 this weekend.

Ryan Newman (60/1)

The Richard Childress Racing teams have shown more speed this year than they have in a while, and Newman has finished 11th or better in four of the eight races so far. The added speed should bode well for his chances this weekend at Richmond, a track that has been one of his best historically. His 18 top-10s here are tied for his most at any track, and there are only two tracks where he has led more laps. Newman finished seventh and third in the two races at Richmond last year, leading laps in both races. His 60/1 odds are pretty enticing for a driver who spent some time at the front of the field in both races in 2017.

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2018 Toyota Owners 400 Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota Owners 400

2018 Toyota Owners 400 Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota Owners 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway this season for the third short track event of the 2018 season and the second in as many weeks. Last weekend at Bristol, we saw the chaos that a short track can produce, but when all was said and done, it was household names Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson who battled for the win.

Yes, a short track like Richmond can produce some surprises, but more often than not, it is still one of the top drivers who ends up celebrating in victory lane. If you plan on betting on the winner of Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400, you will still want to put a majority of your money on the frontrunners.

With that in mind, here is a closer look at the favorites that I recommend betting on at Richmond this weekend, as well as a couple of drivers that the oddsmakers like that I’d avoid.

2018 Toyota Owners 400 Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota Owners 400

Favorites to Bet

Kyle Busch (7/2)

As dominant as he has been in recent weeks, Busch would deserve to be the favorite at any track. He’s finished third or better in each of the six races leading up to Richmond, winning at Texas and Bristol the last two weeks. He also happens to be excellent at Richmond, winning four times and compiling the best average finish among active drivers. If you like to back the smart money, put your money on Busch Saturday night.

Denny Hamlin (13/2)

The Virginia native has enjoyed a ton of success at his home-state track, winning three times and leading more laps than any other driver. He has been particularly dialed in in recent years, reeling off five straight finishes of sixth or better and leading 189 laps in a win here in the fall of 2016. Hamlin is one of the top threats when the series heads to Richmond.

Brad Keselowski (10/1)

While he only has one win at Richmond, Keselowski could easily have several more. He led 100 laps and finished second here last spring, and he has led more than 100 laps four times in the last nine races, leading more laps than any other driver in that stretch. Keselowski knows how to run up front at Richmond, and sitting outside the top-five betting favorites, he could be a steal.

Joey Logano (12/1)

He’s the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Logano has been as reliable as any driver in the series at Richmond. In 10 starts here with Team Penske, he leads all drivers with nine top-10s, two wins and a 6.1 average finish. Logano gives you a little more room for profit than the other top options, but his resume stacks up with any driver out there.

Bad Bets

Kevin Harvick (9/2)

Harvick has been one of the best drivers in the series this year, but the only two tracks where he hasn’t had the speed to win were the two short tracks, Martinsville and Bristol. Granted, he is a three-time winner at Richmond, but his last victory here came in 2013, and he has failed to lead a lap in three of the last five races. Harvick is going to have a top-10 car Saturday night, but I’m not convinced he is going to have the car to beat. I think he’s a little overvalued.

Chase Elliott (12/1)

No driver is more overrated this weekend than Elliott. For one, he hasn’t found his rhythm this year, managing just one top-five finish and leading eight total laps. Meanwhile, it’s not like he’s been great at Richmond. He has a 16.2 average finish in five Cup starts here, and he hasn’t finished better than 10th. Don’t waste your money.

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